2024 Championship Round NFL Picks
Buffalo Bills (+1.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs
The AFC comes down to Patrick Mahomes v. Josh Allen for the second time since the rivalry blossomed.
Mahomes and company have won eight playoff games in a row on their way to accomplish the never-before-seen championship three-peat.
As we saw last week, these playoff matchups are coming down to which team has the most, or the worst-timed, turnovers and sacks. The Bills have (by far) the best turnover differential in the league, and while Kansas City is top-five in the least amount of giveaways, so was Baltimore — and the Ravens still had back-breaking penalties.
What I keep coming back to is this: Excluding turnovers, the defense ranks 28th out of 32 teams in EPA allowed, according to Clev Analytics. Including turnovers, on 3rd and 4th downs, Buffalo’s defense ranks 29th in EPA. You can’t beat Patrick Mahomes with this. Kansas City finished third in third-down conversion rate.
It’s a coin-flip game either way, but why bet against the Kanas City Chiefs? Patrick Mahomes is 13–2 and 10–5 against the spread in the playoffs, excluding the Super Bowl games. Josh Allen, meanwhile, won his first playoff game as an underdog last week, after losing his first four.
If the Bills pull this off, so be it. But I’m not going to ever regret taking the Chiefs in a playoff game.
Pick: Kansas City -1.5, Win: Kansas City
NFC Title Game
Washington Commanders (+6) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts has been much discussed heading into this matchup facing the red-hot Commanders. Hurts is supposedly wearing a brace or some sort of protection gear for his knee injury, but let's look at his passing attack.
Hurts averages 192 passing yards per game in seven career playoff games. He threw for 812 yards (207.7) in his three playoff losses — including more than 300 in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs — leaving him with just 134 passing yards per game on average in his four playoff wins.
So, unless Saquon Barkley has a 200-yard rushing performance, this team might just not have enough offense to keep pace. AJ. Brown has 60 receiving yards in his last three games, mind you.
There have been nine 200-yard rushing performances in the playoffs in league history. Only one, Timmy Smith, happened by Round 3 or later.
There’s some significant data to not back the Commanders. Teams led by rookie QBs are 0–5 in conference title games and 1–4 against the spread. Additionally, teams in the playoffs playing their fourth straight road game are 0–6 in those scenarios this century, and 1–5 against the spread.
My counter? Philadelphia is not a far journey for the Commanders, and it's a team they have familiarity with. The Commanders also have one extra day of rest compared to Philly. And Jayden Daniels has broken rookie rules all season long. He’s been incredible. Even if he doesn’t win, this team will 100% cover and make it close.
If Daniels lays an egg, so be it. But I’m rising the Washington wave going against a shaky Philadelphia squad that could potentially face an explosion of offense from its opponent, and an implosion internally if things go awry early.
Pick: Washington +6, Win: Washington