2024 Divisional Round NFL Picks
Saturday Playoff Games
Houston Texans (+9.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs
It’s been pretty simple this season with Kansas City. When the spread amounts to more than 7, fade them against the spread. In fact, the Chiefs are 0–7 against the spread when favored by 7 or more this season, despite being 7–0 in those games straight up.
Houston will most likely not get four interceptions out of Patty Mahomes, but this will be a rematch of a game played just a few weeks ago. The final score? 27–19, an 8-point difference. But when the playoff rematch is less than a month after the first duel, the loser of the first game is 11–6 against the spread the second time around this century.
Additionally, according to Clev Analytics, Andy Reid is only 4–4 against the spread in the Divisional Round following a round one bye week.
Mahomes and company haven’t played a game in 25 days, while Houston is off an upset Round 1 win. The defense can keep this game close, despite fears of a dome team playing in icy outdoor conditions in front of rabid fans drooling for the coveted three-peat.
Pick: Houston +9.5, Win: Kansas City
Washington Commanders (+9.5) v. Detroit Lions
Yes, there’s a world where the Lions smack down and wipe this team off the face of the Earth, but rookie QB Jayden Daniels has an ability to keep drives alive and games within striking distance before weekly absurd fourth-quarter heroics.
Washington had zero turnovers and zero punts in the playoffs last week, and executed long drives while shrinking opportunities for the opposing offense. Tampa Bay had only 7 drives last week, just like Washington. This is the formula to beat Detroit.
It also helps that Detroit’s defense is 29th in QB rush yards allowed.
What this game truly comes down to is 4th downs. It’s as simple as that. Which team has the smarter fourth-down calls, and which defense makes the big stops? These teams are tied for 2nd in the NFL in 4th down conversions per game, while Washington leads the league in fourth down conversion percentage. Detroit is 6th, respectively.
Whoever has the bigger fourth-down plays wins. In a situation that feels that close, with two high-powered offenses that can deliberately speed up or slow down the game at a moment’s will, 9.5 points is way too much.
Pick: Washington +9.5, Win: Detroit
Sunday Playoff Games
Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) v. Philadelphia Eagles
This is just a bad matchup for the Rams. The Eagles beat them 37–20 when they last faced off in Week 12, with HB Saquon Barkley gashing this defense for 255 yards on 9.8 yards per carry.
Yes, the Rams’ defense has improved over the last four weeks, but with Hurts’ mobility, Saquon’s imposing presence and multiple elite receiving threats behind the sixth-best pass-blocking and fifth-best run-blocking offensive line, per PFF.
How will LAR counter all this? Using WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp ad naseum. The problem there is the Eagles’ defense, which is even more elite than its offense. The Eagles pass defense ranks №2 in the NFL in lowest EPA allowed on deep throws, №1on short throws and №7 in EPA allowed on play action plays.
Additionally, the Rams averaged just 4 yards per play (7th worst in the NFL) and the 2nd lowest ppg (4.9 ppg) in the first half of games. If Philadelphia gets an early lead, good luck.
Pick: Philadelphia -6.5, Win: Philadelphia
Baltimore Ravens (-1) v. Buffalo Bills
The game of the year. It’s as simple as that. This is such a coin flip, two unicorn QBs with an entire offense revolving around them like the Sun, it's a true stay away, but what’s the fun in that?
Baltimore is playing without Zay Flowers and in Buffalo, where it is 30 degrees with light snow and mist on the docket.
Baltimore’s defense has really come around over the second half of the season, with its №2 ranked run defense, per PFF, leading the way. With HB Derrick Henry the best offensive weapon on the field and Baltimore’s defense having the edge over Buffalo’s defensive unit, it's starting to become a tough matchup for the Bills.
So which QB is going to force the most mistakes? It feels like Josh Allen to me as his weapons aren’t as strong, and his gun-slinger mentality shines brighter than Jackson. Lamar ranks 40th out of 43 qualifying passers in percentage of throws into tight coverage, per Next Gen Stats. That’s not how Allen plays, and Baltimore can take advantage.
Also, Buffalo’s defense hasn’t picked off a pass in five of its last seven games. Despite the defense’s strong +/- numbers for turnover differential, they finished the regular season tied for 25th in the league in passes defended (60).
I’m riding with Lamar and the Ravens in this spot, but god damn this is just as good as it gets. I hope the game is an all-time classic.
Pick: Baltimore -1, Win: Baltimore