2024 NFL Championship Round Picks (for the 2023 season)
Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) v Baltimore Ravens
Mahomes is now 11–5 against the spread in the playoffs, and proved he can still be amazing on the road just as is at home.
Part of the magic is his escapability, making and extending plays out of thin air. But All-Pro lineman Joe Thuney is out, and Baltimore’s pass rush (and defense overall) is another animal compared to Buffalo’s. And that defense is anchored by DC Macdonald, who’s proving to be a unique NFL mind. Whether or not he will be a successful head coach remains to be seen, but his defensive strategies are other-worldly facing modern offenses.
On offense, the Ravens are 6th in DVOA when it comes to power run success rate. How does KC fare against power run schemes? Dead last. Even if Lamar struggles against DC Spagnola’s blitz scheme or against this defense’s secondary, the Ravens could just run the ball down the Chiefs’ throats while holding them from a shootout with its elite defense.
What’s scary? The NFL is employing Shawn Smith as the head ref for the contest. According to betting extraordinaire Warren Sharp, home teams have covered just 37% of the time (17–29–3) last three years in games Smith has helmed — second lowest mark among 19 refs. The league average for home teams covering is 49.4%.
Interestingly enough, championship games have gone over in 61% of games since 2000, according to Twitter. Some food for thought.
Pick: Baltimore -3.5, Win: Baltimore
Detroit Lions (+7) v San Francisco 49ers
Yes, I’m envisioning a 2012 Super Bowl rematch, and I’m more confident with this game than the AFC side.
With this current Lions scheme under OC Ben Johnson, Goff is 4th in the NFL in EPA over the middle on the 2nd most attempts, according to Twitter. San Francisco is №1 in the entire league in defending throws over the middle. This could prove to be a brutal matchup for the storyline-winning Lions, especially with San Francisco’s defensive line fully healthy — Arik Armstead played v Green Bay.
Last week, I viewed the winner of Green Bay v SF as the NFC champion, and I’m sticking to that take. Detroit’s defense is by far the worst remaining. KC’s ranks 13th according to PFF (while SF and Baltimore are both in the top 3), but Detroit is all the way down at 20th.
The Lions’ defense’s worst grades? Tackling and pass defense. Kyle Shanahan and company should have a field day against this defense.
Jared Goff is 8–7 against the spread in road outdoor games during his tenure with Detroit. The problem is the team averages 18 ppg in these situations, not nearly enough to keep up with this 49er team with a 20th-ranked defense.
Dome teams playing outdoors in Championship games are 0–7 against the spread, according to Twitter.
Pick: San Francisco -7, Win: San Francisco