2024 NFL Divisional Round Picks (for the 2023 season)
Houston Texans (+9.5) v Baltimore Ravens
Houston was the lone “true” surprise of Wildcard Weekend for me when they outgunned the trendy Cleveland Browns.
I think a majority of betters will expect C.J. Stroud and the Texans to cover due to a great quarterback matchup, but this defense is different. The Ravens are third-best at limiting explosive pass plays, according to Pro Football Reference. The Browns’ defense was great statistically too, but was susceptible to big throws downfield and struggled to replicate its dominating ways on the road.
Additionally, defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald was given two weeks to devise a scheme to help limit Stroud and company, and he’s been one of the best coordinators in the sport. Of course, the Texans’ offensive coordinator joins that list with MacDonald.
Baltimore is expected to be in the mid-20s with 15–25 mph winds, a tough environment against this All-Pro decorated secondary for a rookie QB and a rookie head coach. And Mark Andrews is back!
According to some Twitter sharps, a home team playing outdoors against a dome team is 14–8 against the spread in the Divisional Round.
Pick: Baltimore -9.5, Win: Baltimore
Green Bay Packers (+9.5) v San Francisco 49ers
There’s a lot of buzz about SF displaying tons of rust at the start due to being on ice for nearly three weeks. Baltimore is in the same boat, but with a more playoff-experienced QB and coach and on a team that has been in this situation just 4 years ago.
SF is just 2–5 against the spread in the first half this season at home, which makes the 9.5 number so scary. But I took Pittsburgh to cover with zero belief they could actually win. And the playoff gambling rule is if you don’t think they can win, never take them to cover.
BUT, this 49ers team is not quite the same 20 weeks into the season. When a top 5 EPA pass offense, like Green Bay, is an underdog of 7 or more in the playoffs this century, they cover against the spread 10 out of 14 times. And for the 49ers, the defense ranks 16th in EPA and 11th in EPA per dropback, far from its top-five ranking when Safety Talanoa Hufanga was playing.
Lastly, when two top-5 EPA pass offenses face each other in the playoffs, the underdog has covered against the spread 18 times out of 26 scenarios.
Pick: Green Bay +9.5, Win: San Francisco
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) v Detroit Lions
If Detroit was going to win against the Los Angeles Rams, Aidan Hutchinson needed a huge performance. Well, he turned in two pivotal sacks including possibly the play of the game. It’s becoming beyond ridiculous he was picked after Travon Walker in the draft.
Now he gets to terrorize Tampa Bay and its middling offensive line. Baker Mayfield has been stellar as of late, but has played through injury and when he is truly banged up, the stat lines can be pretty ugly.
Detroit has allowed less than 22 points per game on average over its last four, so while the defense can be susceptible to downfield throwing — which Tampa excels in — the defense has turned a corner to some degree.
Jared Goff also has seemed to elevate his game with Ben Johnson. Despite a lackluster second half v LA, he made big throws and created first down when necessary. Since his Week 14 dud v Chicago, Goff is the 3rd highest-graded QB against the blitz — a tactic Tampa Bay’s defense uses in spades.
Pick: Detroit -6.5, Win: Detroit
Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) v Buffalo Bills
Did you guys know that Josh Allen is 3–1 against Patty Mahomes in the regular season? Why does it not feel that way? Because he’s 0–2 against him in the playoffs and is now suiting up with the worst version of his Bills to take down his arch-rival.
The Chiefs, while playing on the road for the first time in a non-Super Bowl Mahomes playoff game, also received a two-day rest advantage due to the Bills’ weather-related reschedule.
Now about this being the worst version of the Bills in the Allen era. Four defensive starters are either out or a game-time decision. If LB Terrel Bernard doesn’t play, this team is down to its 4th-string linebacker v Travis Kelce. Has Kelce lost a step? Certainly, but he still had a top-tier season and may want to bring the Kelce household some pride after the Eagles’ disappointing loss and his brother’s looming retirement news.
Gabe Davis is out and Stephon Diggs has a history of struggling in the playoffs v Mahomes. This needs to be a big rushing day from Cook and Allen.
Kansas City played one of its best games of its season last week in the playoffs in freezing weather, why not ride the Mahomes train instead of waiting for Josh Allen to get over the hump?
Pick: Kansas City +2.5, Win: Kansas City