2024 Week 1 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs
This is an immediate stay away. I understand the excitement of football finally being back and the thrill of throwing a couple of bets on tonight’s game, but this is truly the definition of a coin flip.
Does Baltimore treat this as a revenge game? Will Patrick Mahomes carve up the Ravens’ defense sans coordinator Mike Macdonald, linebacker Patrick Queen and safety Geno Stone? Does Kansas City lay an egg and take a few weeks to find their sea legs on offense?
Baltimore lost or traded away 17 players in addition to Macdonald signing with the Seahawks (a team you better start backing early). This Ravens team had to rebuild its offensive line on the fly.
And reigning Super Bowl champions are 7–3 in its last 10 Week 1 matchups, with Mahomes going 1–1 (losing last year by a point to Detroit).
But Lamar Jackson simply doesn’t lose…in the regular season. He’s 58–19 in the regular season. As an underdog, he's 12–1–1 against the spread and 10–4 straight up.
The Chiefs will be without Marquise Brown and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and with no Marquez Valdes-Scantling this season, it could be slow for Kansas City out the gates. Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce should be enough for Mahomes, but is it enough for Week 1 against a team that has had this date circled for months?
Lamar is just 1–4 v Mahomes in his career (0–1 playoffs), but he at least has one win in four regular season tries against him.
Pick: Baltimore +3, Win: Baltimore
Friday Night Football
Green Bay Packers (+2) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts not being able to be in the same room as head coach Nick Sirianni. Jason Kelce, who started the last 167 games at center for the franchise, leaving the team for retirement. No more Fletcher Cox. And even if the secondary has improved through the draft and free agency, it is three new starters, including two rookies, going against the quarterback who threw the second-most TD passes last year.
I like both teams this year long-term, but itseems like a lot of new synergy to build in a foreign country going against a team that continues to grow together and has already showed us they were able to keep up with the conference’s best a year ago.
And I’m all about synergy in a Week 1 game hosted by Brazil.
The Philadelphia Eagles ranked 32nd in 3rd-down defense last year, how much has that improved in a single offseason?
According to Action Network, Matt LaFleur is 22–10 (69%) against the spread as an underdog, and he’s 13–2 ATS (87%) in the first three weeks of the season.
In comparison, Jalen Hurts is just 6–14–1 against the spread (30%) as a favorite away from home.
Pick: Green Bay +2, Win: Green Bay
Locks
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) v Miami Dolphins
94% of bets and 91% of money are on the Dolphins to win, according to Action Network. And yet, I’m fairly confident Jacksonville can walk in there and get a Week 1 W.
Maimi’s home-field advantage — hot, sunny weather with lots of humidity — expires by November, but it doesn’t help when facing another Florida team.
Defensively, Jacksonville bolstered its pass rush with Arik Armstead joining Josh Allen after a career-best year to help disrupt McDaniel’s explosive offensive game plan.
Look, it’s not like Jacksonville’s roster doesn’t have holes, but how did Miami improve in the offseason? Especially on defense? Of the three players who received $100+ million contracts, two were guys leaving Miami for “greener” horizons.
Jacksonville’s offseason obtainees at least fit the idea of the team’s future, turning a dink-and-dunk offense into a spread offense with multiple deep threats.
Pick: Jacksonville +3.5, Win: Jacksonville
Carolina Panthers (+4.5) v New Orleans Saints
I am deeply, deeply out on this Saints team. A franchise that continued to push back its financial issues for an extended faux title run has resulted in a bloated collection of aging talent paired with lots of dad money and arguably the worst head coach in the league.
Carolina and Bryce Young hit rock bottom, but there’s reason for (slight) optimism. The Panthers snagged two good free agent signings on the offensive line with Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt while adding wide receivers Dionte Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette.
The last cog? Dave Caneles. The guy who gave Geno Smith a career-best year as Seattle’s quarterback coach, only to do the same with Baker Mayfield a year later as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator.
Jared Goff went from a 64 passer rating in his rookie year to 100+ in his sophomore year. A 2nd-year jump is possible with the right coaching and crew.
And it will be the first of many times to share some of my favorite data from the Dennis Allen-Derek Carr duo. Dennis Allen is 8–16 against the spread in his career as a favorite, and Derek Carr is 23–37 against the spread as a favorite.
Pick: Carolina +4.5, Win: Carolina
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) v. Los Angeles Chargers
How many games is a coaching upgrade of Jim Harbaugh over Brandon Staley? Three? Four? Harbaugh had a five-game turnaround with San Francisco in his first year, and now he’s suiting up alongside the best quarterback of his career.
These two teams are on completely different levels. One has a Minshew-Pierce quarterback-coach tandem with a depleted roster while their opponent is Herbert-Harbaugh.
Let’s not forget that the Raiders won 63–21 late last year — perfect bulletin board material for the team this year. I have LAC as a wildcard team flirting with the top spot in the AFC West and the Raiders as a bottom-dwelling lottery team.
Despite Las Vegas’ improved pass rush, I think these teams simply aren’t a field goal apart.
Pick: Los Angeles -3, Win: Los Angeles
Washington Commanders (+3.5) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I saw Seattle take a step back when Dave Canales bowed out of the club’s coaching staff in favor of a promotion, and the same could happen to Tampa Bay this year.
Tampa Bay lost Shaq Barrett, Devin White and Carlton Davis on defense, while Washington spent all summer improving its defense with veteran free agents and defensive-minded coach Dan Quinn.
On offense, Jayden Daniels could kill any game plans with out-of-structure scrambles and plays due to his unbelievable athleticism. And, when Daniels does have to throw the ball, Tampa Bay’s secondary continues to weaken — even after Winfield’s deal got done.
Todd Bowles is 7–12 against the spread as a favorite. As for the Bucs? Just 2–8 when laying three or more points.
Pick: Washington +3.5, Win: Washington
Dice Throws
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) v. Atlanta Falcons
I’m optimistic about Atlanta this year despite the many red flags sprinkled about from the past offseason. But that doesn’t mean they need to be firing on all cylinders from the jump. This is a 36-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury on a brand new team learning a brand new offense without taking a snap in preseason.
And Pittsburgh’s defense should be among the elite units across all of the NFL this year. There’s a true linebacking deficiency in the league, so having a duo as potent as Queen-Highsmith gives them an edge in nearly every matchup.
In addition to having the field littered with studs like Porter Jr., Fitzpatrick, Ogunjobi, Heyward and T.J. Watt, I’d be surprised to see Atlanta explode out of the gate.
The sexiest bet for this game is the under, as quarterbacks typically underperform by a full touchdown — not to mention Cousins being the new offense and scheme — while Atlanta sneakily had the №11 ranked defense according to PFF before upgrading with Judon and Justin Simmons. Expect this game to be a low-scoring slog.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5, Win: Atlanta
Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) v. Buffalo Bills
I had Kyler Murray on my fantasy team last year and watched this team closely, expecting a nice second-half surge. And honestly, I was left a little disappointed. Murray went 3–5 with a 10–5 TD-to-INT ratio, good for a sub-90 passer rating.
Still, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride and James Conner + Trey Benson as a backfield duo makes this offense’s potential very exciting. Buffalo’s defense isn’t the healthiest either, despite it being Week 1. The cornerstone of the defense, Matt Milano, has already been ruled out.
Josh Allen has a tendency to absolutely obliterate piss-poor defenses. Arizona ranked №32 on defense, according to PFF, with a 50.9 grade. The gap between them and the next-worst defense was the same gap as the following seven teams on the list combined.
But this is a slower, run-heavier, ground-and-pound offense under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Longer drives and fewer weapons (no more Stephon Diggs) could help Arizona keep up with Buffalo.
Kyler Murray has a hit rate of 64% covering the spread as a starter when he’s an underdog.
Pick: Arizona +6.5, Win: Buffalo
New England Patriots (+7.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase might affect this into a New England cover, but this Pats team is one sorry bunch. The offensive line is in shambles, the weapons (while promising and young) are still amongst the league’s bottom 10 teams and the defense has already suffered serious injuries.
Brissett moved the ball pretty well in spot fill-in duties in Washington last year — completing nearly 80% of his throws and posting a 146 passer rating — but as a starter, he’s just 18–30 as a starter, and this may be the worst roster he’s suiting up for.
The Bengals are notoriously slow starters in the season, but medical sources I trust have said Joe Burrow is ready to go. Higgins is out, but Chase will probably play.
It’s a dangerous bet to lay that many points this early in the year (highest spread this weak), and teams that won six or fewer games the previous year are 84–52–6 (60%) against the spread as underdogs in Week 1.
But it’s one thing if I’m giving up 9 points. 7.5? I’ll risk it. The gap between these clubs is too severe and the Bengals want to make a statement early. All New England is hoping for is a line that can block well enough to keep their quarterbacks from the IR.
Pick: Cincinnati -7.5, Win: Cincinnati
Denver Broncos (+6) v. Seattle Seahawks
One of my favorite teams this year is the Seattle Seahawks (yes, I might be a resident there). There’s potentially a perfect combination of maintaining chemistry with teammates year over year while improving the scheme they fall into.
Offensive coordinator Grubb could be a massive upgrade over Shane Waldron, all while Mike Macdonald could truly unlock a once floundering defense that lost its identity. The receiving corps is among the league’s best, the team spent time and resources on its offensive line, and there are enough stars on defense for Macdonald to use against a rookie quarterback.
Head coach Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix could be a match made in heaven, but do they strike gold in Week 1 over a potential top-10 defense? Most likely not, but I do think this game stays close. I don’t love the offensive crew surrounding Nix.
Rookie first-round quarterbacks cover spreads at an approximate 50% clip, but no rookie quarterback has won on the road in Week 1 since 2018 (Sam Darnold and the Jets!).
Pick: Denver +6, Win: Seattle
New York Jets (+4.5) v. San Francisco 49ers
Yes, San Francisco cleared up most of its offseason ugliness. Brandon Aiyuk is back. So is Trent Williams. Christian McCaffrey is already beat up, but will play — unlike safety Hufanga.
Still, pretty ugly vibes for a team suffering from its second Super Bowl hangover in five years. It doesn’t help that the conference, and their division, only improved this summer.
Meanwhile, this is the healthiest the Jets will ever be. Metlife’s brutal turf hasn’t claimed any victims yet. The offensive line is made up of newly-acquired linemen Tyron Smith, John Simpson and Morgan Moses. Could these guys get hurt this year? Absolutely. Luckily this matchup is occurring in Week 1.
A 40-year-old QB not being able to play for nearly two years, brand new teammates on offense and the 49ers pass rush breathing down a newly-created offensive line makes this a scary bet, but I truly believe that the 49ers will take a step back and merely be a wildcard team at best.
This is the only time I have mentioned preseason results as anything significant, but it’s not like Brock Purdy looked amazing in August. He’s got his full suite of weapons at his disposal, but a few of them have missed all summer camp. We’ll see if the rust affects them come Monday.
Pick: New York +4.5, Win: New York
Stay Aways
Tennesee Titans (+4.5) v. Chicago Bears
I normally love to fade a rookie quarterback, but Caleb Williams is playing at home with an upgraded offense against a mediocre-at-best defense. It is a situation where he could be successful early.
Comparing Williams’ debut to Andrew Luck’s debut — another prodigal talent out of college — Luck lost to the Chicago Bears 41–21 after throwing three interceptions and fumbling once compared to just one touchdown.
I don’t know how well the Titans’ offseason acquisitions in Pollard and Ridley will fare, but adding cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie will be a considerable upgrade and might torment the Bears’ wunderkind thrower.
Due to the ability that both of these quarterbacks can make plays in chaos and out-of-structure, this is a stay-away. Doesn’t help that an aging DeAndre Hopkins has an MCL injury already, but I like the Titans keeping it close under new head coach Brian Callahan.
Pick: Tennessee +4.5, Win: Chicago
Houston Texans (-3) v. Indianapolis Colts
Remember if Tyler Goodson hadn’t dropped a Gardner Minshew pass on fourth down late in the game, the Colts would have won the AFC South and made the playoffs?
Houston has received all the noise with the immediate success of its recent high-priority draft picks paired with shiny free-agent toys, but these divisional games between these two teams are always close and full of chaos.
The problem is Indianapolis’ secondary is disastrous and Stroud has no qualms with chucking it deep. The Colts’ secondary ranked outside the top 20 of last year’s units according to PFF, and the front office decided to basically … run it back?
It’s tempting to jump on Houston early. The defense under Demeco Ryans should take a proper step up into an elite tier. Stroud has more weapons. And the offensive line is healthy after six different offensive line combinations saw between 5–24% of snaps last year.
But divisional underdogs are 29–19 against the spread in Week 1 opening games when playing at home this century, and that trend has only increased (78% hit rate) over the last decade. Could Shane Steichen turn Anthony Richardson into a nuclear bomb that disrupts any conventional game plan? We’ll have to see.
Pick: Indianapolis +3, Win: Houston
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) v. NY Giants
It can’t get much lower than this for Daniel Jones. After a two-interception preseason performance, Jones and the G-men can’t even be favorites at home in Week 1 against a backup quarterback.
Sam Darnold didn’t even light it up for San Francisco as a backup quarterback. He produced three touchdowns against four turnovers while posting a mere 85 passer rating.
Taking six sacks against 46 pass attempts last year, how will Sam Darnold fare against Dexter Lawrence II and Brian Daboll’s pass rush? Throw in Brian Burns’ New York debut and it could spell H-A-V-O-C for the ghost-seeing Darnold.
Pick: New York +1.5, Win: New York
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) v Cleveland Browns
These are two teams I’m not terribly high on in 2024. Two playoff teams last year that I don’t think repeat as such this January.
But, when it comes to Cleveland, I need to see Deshaun Watson first. He hasn’t played in nearly a year and even bailed on some preseason action last minute due to “shoulder soreness.” Are we already at this point with Watson for a third year in a row in Cleveland?
The Dallas Cowboys had a particularly strange offseason. The team has the lowest amount of money spent on the roster this year, made a plethora of peculiar roster decisions and upset all of its important headliners through convoluted contract extensions. Remember, Dak Prescott is an unrestricted free agent if he does not get a deal this season.
It doesn’t help that Dallas faced the single-easiest schedule of opposing defenses last season, but they are the more dependable, steadier team between the two. If any team’s floor falls out, it’s Clevelands.
Pick: Dallas +2.5, Win: Dallas
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) v. Detroit Lions
This is the first of 14 games in a dome for the Detroit Lions, giving the team an excellent case for the conference’s first seed. Goff successfully covers the spread in 67% of his career games played inside a dome.
Under Dan Campbell, the Lions have covered 69% of the time against the spread. Luckily for this ball club, nothing has changed. Their lottery draft picks are a year older and could have peak performance seasons, the offensive line is among the league’s best and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson decided to stay for another year.
I think the Rams could be a playoff team again this year, but the loss of Raheem Morris and Aaron Donald could really hurt this team early in the year. It doesn’t help that three corners for the Rams are already beat up and have to face one of the league’s premier passing offenses.
If LA’s offensive line and defense can hold up, their season will be just fine. This is just a tough spot to start a season.
Pick: Detroit -3.5, Win: Detroit