2024 Week 2 NFL Picks

Thursday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) v Miami Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills are currently undefeated (6–0) on Thursday Night in the Josh Allen era. The Josh Allen era has also resulted in a 10–2 record against the Miami Dolphins — including a sweep last year when Maimi had a real shot of clinching the AFC East title.

In games against Miami, Josh Allen averages 280 passing yards per contest, throwing 33 TDs against seven INTs.

Buffalo’s defense left a lot to be desired, scoring a 20th-ranked 58.0 score on PFF. But, despite the sagging scheme and mountain injuries, Tyreek Hill doesn’t exactly kill Buffalo. In seven regular-season contests versus the Bills, Hill has never topped 82 receiving yards. He averages just 52 yards and has scored only 2 TDs in those seven games.

Additionally, Raheem Mostert is out. It's not the end of the world, but Devon Achane is limited and will be a game-time decision after totaling 100 yards and a score.

So Maimi might have to lean on Jeff Wilson Jr. and rookie Jaylen Wright, who was a healthy scratch last week.

Both teams rallied from double-digit deficits to secure wins in Week 1, but Buffalo looked far more impressive, shutting down Arizona to the tune of a 31–11 flip after initially trailing 17–3.

Pick: Buffalo +2.5, Win: Buffalo

Locks

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) v. Green Bay Packers

This one is pretty easy. Indianapolis’ quarterback just barreled his way into a 2-point cover against a title-contending squad. Green Bay, meanwhile, played a really sloppy game even before Jordan Love’s injury. And guess who’s replacing him?

MALIK WILLIS!

Danny Heifetz of The Ringer revealed Willis has a sack rate of 17%. He’s yet to throw a touchdown pass and I’m giving up less than 3? Sign me up.

Pick: Indianapolis -2.5, Win: Indianapolis

Dice Throws

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) v. Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–23 last playoffs. Tampa proved they could hang with the powerhouse Lions for the most part, but which teams improved?

This feels like Detroit’s title window with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson sticking around one more year to counter any of head coach Dan Campbell’s late-game mistakes. This team has hit on their recent high-value draft picks on both sides of the ball, and they get to play 14 of their 17 games under a dome.

Detroit’s defense feels like it has improved from last year with Aidan Hutchinson and Brian Branch hitting their stride alongside a plethora of veterans. Tampa? Well, they lost defensive end Shaq Barrett, linebacker Devin White and corner Carlton Davis with very little replacing them.

So it’s gotta be a shootout for Tampa to compete. Baker Mayfield did a wonderful job going against a bottom-10 defense. Can that be replicated against Detroit? Remember, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta definitely had some rust in Week 1.

I think its just a riskier game than what most other pundits believe. If it was 6.5-point spread, I’d lean Detroit, but 7.5? That’s a lot of points against another playoff team that held their own against Detroit, especially when Detroit can drain the clock with its run game — limiting the score from exploding but controlling the victory.

Pick: Tampa Bay +7.5, Win: Detroit

Seattle Seahawks (-3) v. New England Patriots

I would have considered taking New England to cover, but the line has shrunk following the biggest upset of the week over Cincinnati. Seattle is 16–5 in its last 21 10 a.m. games, which should offset any nervousness around Geno Smith being favored in a road game — especially one across the country.

There’s a lot of chatter around the Seahawks’ offensive line and how poorly they played, but did you know PFF ranked Seattle’s run blocking as the third-best in Week 1? The pass blocking did not grade as well, but avoided the bottom 10.

Also, Charles Cross looked good as the team’s franchise left tackle. Like, 94.8 PFF grade good.

I think Macdonald’s defense won’t sweat over Jacoby Brissett and his 5 yards per attempt.

Pick: Seattle -3, Win: Seattle

Los Angeles Rams (+1) v. Arizona Cardinals

I thought the Rams looked great last week, pushing the heavy-contending Lions to overtime despite a decimated offensive line. Now Puka Nacua is injured for a substantial time.

Can Matt Stafford and Sean McVay build a game plan around these shortcomings? I say yes. Stafford, Williams and Kupp should be enough against Arizona’s middling defense if McVay can scheme enough surprises.

And for Defensive Rookie of the Year watch? Jared Verse with the Rams produced a 33% pass rush rate, according to Seth Walder, sixth-best in the league.

And it’s just not a good matchup for Kyler Murray. He is 1–8 against the Rams and has only covered a line spread against them once. I’m sure they will try to get Marvin Harrison Jr. involved early and often, too bad he has to go up against Jalen Ramsey.

Pick: Los Angeles +1, Win: Los Angeles

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) v. Denver Broncos

The Steelers were a great upset pick last week, and they proved they have an elite defense this year. I still don’t buy this team long-term, but Bo Nix playing Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks to then pivot to Tomlin’s Steelers is a brutal start to a career.

Nix averaged 3.3 yards per attempt last week, how much will that improve? It doesn’t help that this offense has some of the least exciting skill position units. Pittsburgh’s pass rush was the second-highest graded group in Week 1, and could thrive against the rookie quarterback.

Tomlin is 15–11 against the spread as a road favorite of 3 or less.

Pick: Pittsburgh -2.5, Win: Pittsburgh

Chicago Bears (+6.5) v. Houston Texans

The Bears couldn’t score a touchdown on offense, and now the rookie gunslinger Caleb Williams travels on the road for a primetime game against the Houston Texans, anchored by former defensive coordinator-turned-head coach DeMeco Ryans.

Now Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze might not play. And the rushing attack led by De’Andre Swift was a non-factor.

These teams just aren’t on the same level. While giving up slightly less than a touchdown isn’t ideal, I am not confident in a Caleb Williams cover at this point.

Pick: Houston -6.5, Win: Houston

Stay Aways

Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5) v. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore got extra days off before facing a team that scored a measly 10 points on Sunday, so this seems like a cakewalk for the Ravens.

Just one more thing, much like Peter Faulk turning back one final time, is that Baltimore’s offensive line was rough against Kansas City. I’m sure the unit will improve over the course of the season, but in Week 2 against Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins? It could be a rough afternoon for a game with a near-10-point spread.

According to Clev Analytics, the Raiders under Antonio Pierce have allowed just five of their last 18 opponents to clear their team totals, and only three of the last 15 have gone over.

And I still don’t trust this Baltimore defense with Mike Macdonald moving cross-country to Seattle.

Pick: Las Vegas +9.5, Win: Baltimore

Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) v Carolina Panthers

One of my biggest backfires of Week 1 was being on the wrong side of a 37-point New Orleans blowout. This Panthers team is pathetic on both sides of the ball, and we’re getting into scary territory regarding Bryce Young’s numbers compared to Jamarcus Russell.

Let’s do the breakdown. Russell had 16 TDs and 21 turnovers in his first 17 games, minimum 12 passes attempted. Young has 11 TDs and 18 turnovers. Young and Russell both had sub-60% completion percentage, but Young led Russell by 5% by this point.

Russell’s passer rating beats Young’s 74.1 to 71.5, and Russell took less sacks and had a greater yards-per-attempt. Another big number? Wins! Jamarcus Russell had five wins (stuck with a 26th and 24th-ranked defense first two years) while Young just has 2 (29th ranked defense last year).

Both teams are potentially missing their best pass rushers. Derrick Brown is officially out for Carolina while Joey Bosa has been deemed questionable.

This game is slotted in ‘Stay Aways’ because I need more information on both teams. The Chargers handled the Raiders, but they didn’t look like world-beaters. Carolina looked like the worst team in the league, but is that just Bryce Young and Dave Canaeles building a new offense together?

Week 2 overreactions from Week 1 make this week a dangerous time. Teams that lose by 30+ in the opening week are just 5–11 against the spread the following week since 2000, but teams favored by less than seven cover just slightly more than 30% of the time.

Pick: LAC -6.5, Win: Los Angeles

New Orleans Saints (+6.5) v. Dallas Cowboys

I might have underrated the addition of Klint Kubiak bringing a revamped offense into the Superdome, because they obliterated the Panthers and didn’t even need to rely on Chris Olave for most of the offensive production.

But the Saints’ offensive line is still a mess and could be feasted upon by Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. On the flip side, Brandin Cooks is suiting up, but Jake Ferguson is out. And its doesn’t look like Marshon Lattimore is playing, he’s been out all week from practice.

Dallas is at home, where they usually thrive. Dallas won six of its eight home games last year by at least 20 points, and the Saints could be fool’s gold after Week 1.

Dak also has a tendency to be the NFC Josh Allen, killing teams that are below their level. Dak is 30–13 against the spread as a favorite of 6 or more in his career. The average spread in those 43 games was 5.3.

Pick: Dallas -6.5, Win: Dallas

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville lost 20–17 after leading by 14 at one point, and they are favorites by more than 3? I know Cleveland was a disaster in Week 1, but if we’re going to play devil’s advocate, Watson was the biggest candidate for Week 1 rust after he bailed last-minute in some preseason action in Seattle due to “shoulder soreness.”

I think this is a great litmus test of how I want to evaluate Watson and the Browns going forward. Is Watson absolutely fried as a player to the point he can’t be relied on as a starter? Let’s see him play against Jacksonville’s 30th-ranked defense (according to PFF). PFF surprisingly ranked Watson as the 19th-best quarterback in Week 1 and was the vic — I’m not going to use that word — and the Browns had four unfortunate drops.

Favorites who lost outright in Week 1 are 17–11 against the spread in the 21st century when that team is an underdog in Week 2.

And now Evan Engram has been ruled out, only further hindering this offense against Cleveland’s defense.

Pick: Cleveland +3.5, Win: Cleveland

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) v. Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold playing perfect football in a thrashing against New York? I’ll be honest, didn’t have that on my bingo card. Can he replicate that against the team that rejuvenated him? Probably not.

I do think San Francisco’s defense takes a step back in 2024, but Sam Darnold (yes, with Justin Jefferson) without Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. I don’t think he can elevate the rest of this team’s offense.

And Christian McCaffrey being out is certainly a bummer, but isn’t the 49ers’ offense a little more dynamic in his absence? Not better. But a little harder to predict? I’m riding SF all the way this week, especially considering Trent Williams and Bradon Aiyuk have another week under their belts.

Pick: San Francisco -4.5, Win: San Francisco

New York Jets (-4) v. Tennessee Titans

There’s no way the betting public is putting money on Tennessee after Will Levis gave us the meme of the year in mid-September and the team as a whole blew a great upset and cover. It makes this game a prime candidate to zag on.

The Jets played on Monday, and now they have to play on the road. Already at a rest disadvantage, I hated how the coaching staff approached its game against SF. Bill Belichick continued to quietly scream for the defense to correct and adjust to block the C-gap where Jordan Mason ran for more than 5 yards per carry all evening.

Then the offense continued to run on early down situations and made themselves very predictable to stop, putting Rodgers in 3rd-and-long situations.

The Titans defense allowed the lowest yards per play, 7th lowest EPA per play and 9th lowest success rate of any defense in the NFL last week. It could be a good unit in 2024.

The Jets’ defensive line is weaker a year later, and the secondary is battered with injuries. If Tennessee’s offense performs better in Week 2 with Levis and head coach Brian Callahan slowly improving their chemistry week over week, this game could be a grind-it-out close call.

Tennessee did run the ball very well last week against Chicago, something that could be replicated against the Jets. NYJ gave up 130+ rush yards eight times last year, and the defensive line has only gotten worse.

Pick: Tennessee +4, Win: New York

New York Giants (+1.5) v. Washington Commanders

God, do I really back these inept Giants for another week?

Washington was ran over by Tampa Bay, and a deeper look reveals some troubling trends despite the positive potential Jayden Daniels showed. According to some Twitter sharps, 19 of his 23 pass attempts accounted for less than 10 air yards per throw, while he missed most of his downfield looks.

Dexter Lawrence II finished with the second most pressures in the league last week (1 off of Micah Parson’s league-leading mark), so there is still hope for this defense to turn it around against less experienced squads.

Daniel Jones has his back against the wall. His seat is literally on fire with Drew Lock breathing down his neck. I’m not expecting him to replicate Mahomes, but man if this is not the chance for him to have a solid performance. Washington has allowed 34.4 points on average in its last nine games.

As for the coaches, Brian Daboll is 10–7 as a road underdog while newly-minted coach Dan Quinn is just 22–34 against the spread since his Super Bowl loss and Kyle Shanahan’s departure.

Pick: New York +1.5, Win: New York

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs

I’m scared about how many favorites I’m taking in Week 2, as they only cover just north of 40% of the time due to initial overreactions.

The Bengals are just 1–10 in the first two weeks under Zac Taylor. Tee Higgins is out, leaving the receiving corps as just Ja’Marr Chase and a bunch of unproven guys. Not to mention the run game has more questions than answers.

The Chiefs looked great, and now have a rest advantage due to playing on Thursday. Chris Jones and company can disrupt the Bengals’ offensive line, while Trent McDuffie can hold his own against a one-receiver offense.

But the Cheifs struggle against the spread, and have for years. It may be a week too early to put money on the Bengals, but with Burrow’s 3–1 record against Mahomes, why not take nearly a touchdown’s worth of points? These games are always close.

Pick: Cincinnati +5.5, Win: Kansas City

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) v. Philadelphia Eagles

I’m more confident in the Eagles straight-up winning than covering the spread. But Hurts is 17–9–1 against the spread in home games, while Kirk Cousins is 16–25 against the spread in primetime games.

Specifically, Kirk Cousins has a 3–10 win-loss record during Monday Night Football. Oof.

Atlanta knew they were due for a slow start with Philly and Kansas City on their schedule in their first three weeks, so any long-term projections for this team have to start by Week 4.

Week 2 favorites are a dangerous gamble. The Eagles have won by seven or more just once in its last 11 games including the playoffs.

Additionally, A.J. Brown has just been ruled out, limiting the offense even further.

Pick: Atlanta +6.5, Win: Philadelphia