2024 Week 6 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football + Homer Pick!
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) v. Seattle Seahawks
I’m historically not great with Thursday games. They’re fluky, unprepared, random games in my opinion for the most part. We’re just 2–4 on Thursday games this year, but I’m also undefeated in Seahawks picks this year (3–0–2), so this will be interesting.
The Seahawks are spiraling after two straight losses, with Leonard Williams openly commenting about the infighting and bickering the defense is undergoing as of late. It doesn’t help that the San Francisco 49ers blew their second divisional game in three weeks, so both clubs are hungry for this win.
The 49ers moved the ball well against Arizona, but committed a couple of unfortunate turnovers. Guess what? This Seattle defense simply doesn’t force turnovers. Just one turnover (a 102-yard fumble 6) since Week 1.
And the coaching gap for a game on a short week stands out. Shanahan, who’s coached his team to two Super Bowls after losing a 3rd Super Bowl as a coordinator. Macdonald is vying for just his fourth career win. Head coaches making their first-ever Thursday Night Football game appearance cover less than 40% of the time, and if the game is occurring in the first half of the season, according to Twitter data, that percentage drops to just barely over 20%! (5–19 against the spread).
And Riq Woolen is out. This Seattle defense is simply not the same without the second-highest-graded player on the unit, according to PFF.
Pick: San Francisco -3.5, Win: San Francisco
Locks
Cleveland Browns (+8.5) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles are coming off a bye. Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown both return. And they get to face this pathetic team with no fire in their eyes and a disaster under center leading them to their demise.
Watson hasn’t had a 100+ passer rating game in seven games. He hasn’t had a 300-yard game since he was a Texan. And he continues to take a ridiculous amount of sacks, killing drives, and scoring opportunities every time.
There’s no effort. There’s no urgency. There’s nothing to watch here until there’s a change. Eagles should handle business in a rout.
Pick: Philadelphia -8.5, Win: Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) v. Las Vegas Raiders
The air is coming out of Pittsburgh’s tires, but this is a nice “get right” game for them as they get to take on Aidan O’Connell and an offense without Devonte Adams again. I like Tre Tucker and Brock Bowers, but my God should this defense feast.
It’s a really tough position for O’Connell. A league-worst run-blocking unit, a near-league-worst rushing attack, and no Adams could be a major disaster.
Pittsburgh is reeling with all sorts of issues, but I just can’t talk myself into an Aidan O’Connell triumph.
Pick: Pittsburgh, Win: Pittsburgh
Detroit Lions (-3) v. Dallas Cowboys
This is one of those “get ’em while you can” lines. Detroit just favored by 3 against this cruddy team? Ok, sign me up.
Detroit is coming off a bye with the second-most intimidating rushing offense in the league facing the league-worst run defense. Some other teams rank higher in certain metrics, but Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are a ridiculous pair with that offensive line.
Dallas is full of injuries — Lawrence and Parsons are both out — and Jared Goff is rounding into form after a rough start to the season. The only win for the Cowboys here is if Jake Ferguson outgains Sam LaPorta.
Pick: Detroit -3, Win: Detroit
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) v. New York Giants
It’s hard not to think this is a desperation “kitchen sink” game for the Bengals, but at least Joe Burrow has been exceptional. The offense is firing on all cylinders and just needs to outpace the Giants.
Daniel Jones has been nearly 2022 good, but this team is still without Malik Nabers. Tyrone Tracy may make some noise, but this team will not be productive enough on offense without him, especially on primetime.
Daniel Jones is 1–15 in primetime in his career, including an astonishing 0–7 record at home. Burrow, meanwhile, is 16–7 against the spread as a road favorite of 3 or more in his career.
Pick: Cincinnati -3.5, Win: Cincinnati
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) v. New York Jets
New coach theory! New coach theory! We’re here already in Week 6. Teams that have fired their coach since 2000 had an average win % of 27% before the firing. The direct game after? 43%, and the cover rate is even higher.
It’s a perfect spite game for Aaron Rodgers, who lives for this sort of crap despite claiming he had no connection to anything coaching related this week. Sure.
While some metrics aren’t as flattering to the Jets defense, the unit still ranks 6th in both success rate and EPA allowed. And since 20222, according to Twitter sharps, New York has a pretty good track record against Josh Allen. Allen has been held to a negative EPA game three times in four starts, covering just once.
Similar to the Houston pick, the Texans simply out-talented the Bills last week. With no Khalil Shakir on offense again, I think this team struggles to move the ball once more.
Pick: NYJ +2.5, Win: NYJ
Dice Throws
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) v. Chicago Bears
Jacksonville is only 6–5 in London, but their 11 games played are by far more than any other franchise. I like that when facing a rookie QB and a head coach who’s never made an overseas trip.
The Jags’ weapons are also coming into full force. Brian Thomas Jr. leads a solid WR corps with his explosive ability; whatever shortcomings Travis Etienne has running the ball this season are negated by Tank Bigsby, and Evan Engram is set to return.
It’s a perfect come-down week for the Bears, who have to play a challenging road game now, and rookie QBs in international games are 0–5 against the spread (5 losses).
Interestingly enough, favorites are just 3–5 against the spread in the last eight games.
Pick: Jacksonville +2, Win: Jacksonville
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) v. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has been disappointing this season, Jordan Love’s injury aside. Yes, it was great Malik Willis could snag two wins, but the games with Love under gun have been discombobulated and disorienting.
The Packers have a 41% success rate on offense (22nd in the NFL) when Love is the QB and have not cracked 44% in any of Love’s three starts.
Arizona’s defense may be less than stellar (29th overall, according to PFF), but it’s still a competitive enough team to hang in some close games. Two one-score losses to playoff teams before their blowout loss against Washington.
The Green Bay defense has mostly been ranked favorably due to forcing turnovers, but with its consistent use of Cover 2 and 3 looks, Kyler Murray should have a strong performance as he generally excels against those types of defensive schemes.
And Murray is just a great bet as a dog. Murray is 16–8 against the spread when the spread is +3.5 or more, and is also 13–4 against the spread as a road underdog (with two additional pushes).
I like Jordan Love as much as the next reader, but he’s not exactly money in the sportsbooks. Green Bay is a pedestrian 3–4 against the spread when Love starts and is favored, and just 1–3 against the spread when needing to cover north of 3 points.
Pick: Arizona +5.5, Win: Green Bay
Houston Texans (-7) v. New England Patriots
A rookie playing his debut game at home makes a world of difference, and I like what I saw from Drake Maye in brief action. Has this line moved much since the announcement that Brissett has been benched for Maye?
If it didn’t, there’s some real value here if Maye simply plays better than Brissett has. Brissett attempted 15 passes of more than 20 yards in five games, and completed three of them. He also took 17 sacks. If either of those numbers improves, a cover is well within play.
Despite Houston covering just one of five games against the spread, QB C.J. Stroud has been outstanding. But I do think the loss of Nico Collins is another reason to favor the Pats here. Their secondary remains elite, and with that option off the table, watch out. Houston is lucky Joe Mixon is set to return.
Pick: New England +7, Win: Houston
Tampa Bay (-3.5) v. New Orleans
This is a truly bizarre one with Spencer Rattler now suiting up for New Orleans. His long journey to the pro stage has finally arrived.
The only way I could see this working out is if Klint Kubiak and Spencer Rattler have perfect Mahomes-Reid synergy and Rattler can fire off what Kubiak truly desires on the gridiron. Because let’s be honest, Carr is limited to all hell as a QB these days.
But Tampa Bay is a playoff team. Baker Mayfield has been one of the best quarterbacks this season. Chris Godwin is having a career year so if Mike Evans struggles against Lattimore — Evans averages less than 50 receiving yards per game when matched up vs Marshon Lattimore in his career — there are still options, and Bucky Irving is going to reignite this flaccid run offense.
Seems too easy? Mainly because both Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield struggle as road favorites. But with 10 rest against a rookie 5th-rounder who didn’t know he was starting until less than a week ago? I’m going with the Bucs.
Pick: Tampa Bay -3.5, Win: Tampa Bay
Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) v. Carolina Panthers
I just don’t see Atlanta having this wide of a spread, even against a bottom-dwelling team. Atlanta’s three wins have been decided by 1, 2 and 6 points, with the last game going to OT. The team’s two losses? 8 and 5 points.
And Carolina can still move the ball. They couldn’t against Chicago, but against Atlanta’s soft defense and 26th-ranked run-stopping abilities, the Panthers can make this close. Diontae Johnson was really close to a couple of breakaway plays for this offense in the last two weeks with Dalton playing QB.
It also helps that no matter how bad Carolina’s pass rush is (32nd ranked by PFF’s standards), Atlanta’s is just as bad (30th ranked).
I also like that Carolina is a home underdog as well. Teams playing on the road after a three-game homestand, like Atlanta here, cover just 43% of the time.
Pick: Carolina +6.5, Win: Atlanta
The Toughies
(used to be stay-aways, but we are hitting a nice percentage of these — 71%! — so let’s not be too discouraged by the header)
Washington Commanders (+7) v. Baltimore Ravens
I’ve been pretty bad at picking games involving the Commanders this year, and that needs to change. Why not take them here with this disrespectful line?
A 7-point spread against what some pundits are calling a top-5 or top-10 squad led by an MVP candidate at quarterback? Makes no sense.
Even if Baltimore runs away with this game, a backdoor cover is more than in play in this situation. Baltimore is graded 23rd in pass coverage by PFF’s standards, while Washington is 7th in passing grade.
Baltimore’s rush attack leads the league in yards per carry while also ranking fifth in explosive run percentage, so that should be enough to hand Daniels his second career loss, but I also think its a formula that will not lead to a blowout.
Pick: Washington +7, Win: Baltimore
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) v. Tennessee Titans
I like to think I’m fairly confident in these matters with my betting % backing me up, but I got nothing for this one. Is Anthony Richardson playing? How long is he playing for? Is Joe Flacco the better bet week to week? Where does Will Levis factor into this? Is coming off a bye going to help?
For that last part, I’m going to guess yes and use it as one of the few reasons I’ll cling to the Titans for my pick. That and Tennessee ranking №2 in yards per play and №1 in success rate allowed on defense.
That defense gets some significant help if Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and Kenny Moore are all out alongside Jonathan Taylor. But Anthony Richardson is also a game-time decision. Which way does that help? Ah, I don’t know, I give up!
Update: Joe Flacco is officially starting for the Colts. So the turnover frenzy of Richardson v. Levis is no more, and Indianapolis will simply make less frequent and costly mistakes.
Pick: Indianapolis +2.5, Win: Indianapolis
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) v. Denver Broncos
Denver has strung together a really nice winning streak here early, but their luck ends against Jim Harbaugh off a bye with a healthy (healthier) Chargers team.
Justin Herbert continues to lug through an injury, and this Denver defense is no joke, ranking 4th in PFF grade and 3rd for pass coverage. But this quarterback matchup is being overlooked, as Herbert is a couple of tiers above anyone near Bo Nix right now.
Only four teams average fewer yards per snap than Denver’s 4.5, according to Winners and Whiners, as both the passing attack and run game are anemic. Now that offense faces the team allowing less than 300 total yards and just 12.5 points.
Denver’s run defense is not its strongest suit, and Joe Alt is back for the Chargers, giving a pathway for Los Angeles to put up “enough” points to win.
Road favorites off a bye are also an incredible 52–28 against the spread this century.
Pick: Los Angeles -3, Win: Los Angeles