2024 Week 5 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) v. Atlanta Falcons
Tampa is coming off a resounding victory over Philadelphia ahead of facing its first NFC South matchup. So resounding, it seems Baker and this squad simply have Hurts’ and co.’s number.
Tampa Bay’s run game continues to struggle, ranking 24th in DVOA a month in, but rookie Bucky Irving does add another dimension to this offense alongside Cade Otton and a resurgent season from Chris Godwin as he dominates the slot.
I thought Dave Canales was the secret stuff, but this offense looks just as good a year later. Mayfield is north of 70% for completion percentage, has a 6% TD percentage, a higher yards per attempt, and a higher passer rating and QBR than a year ago — his first Pro Bowl season.
Conversely, just blitz Kirk Cousins, which head coach Todd Bowles loves to do. Cousins is completing just 48.5% of his passes against the blitz (third lowest in the league) compared to 70.9% when teams don’t blitz, all while throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box — the league lead by far.
I’m simply taking what I think is the better team despite a real chance of a come-down performance on a short week.
Pick: Tampa Bay +2.5, Win: Tampa Bay
Homer pick
New York Giants (+7) v. Seattle Seahawks
I faded Seattle pretty hard last week due to its multiple missing defenders, but they’re all (mostly) back. Uchenna Nwosu is set for his season debut, and Leonard Williams and Boye Mafe are all returning. Seattle is third in the league in pressures this season.
On the opposite side of the fence, the Giants are missing two of its key offensive players: Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary.
So I’m pretty convinced Seattle will win, but can they cover? According to Twitter sharps, teams that are favored with a Thursday night game the following week cover just 42% of the time. Also, teams coming off a short rest (Monday night football) playing a team coming off a long rest (Thursday night football) cover just 46% of the time.
Pick: New York +7, Win: Seattle
Locks
Miami Dolphins (-1) v. New England Patriots
This New England team has quickly turned so depressing with Jacoby Brissett leading the squad, my editor and New England sports superfan is tuning into Boston Celtics preseason over Patriots games.
This team is not rolling out of bed for a win with Brissett. There’s lots of buzz about his coaching potential, but his slow decision making, lack of mobility and lack of arm strength hinder this offense — already lacking difference makers on offense — to new levels of low. I mean, “16 points scored in the last two games” low.
Brissett has a 37% success rate. He’s also taken 13 sacks through the last two weeks, and the offensive line is only getting more brittle and bruised as the year goes on. Huntley isn’t much to get excited about, but there’s hope the offense improves over time with McDaniel spending more time with him. What you’ve seen from New England is what you’re going to get until Drake Maye comes in.
Like Houston, Miami is defeated against the spread this season. Those teams cover 55% of the time by Week 5. This is as good a chance as any to fall into that 55%.
Pick: Miami -1, Win: Miami
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) v. San Francisco 49ers
Arizona got trounced against Washington last week, time for a bounce-back performance against a division rival.
No Trey McBride, no Kyler scrambles. The offense seemed pedestrian and neutered against what’s considered a pretty awful Washington defense.
You know who else’s defense is pretty pedestrian? SF! Its run defense and tackle grades, according to PFF, are just around the league average. They are in the bottom half in red zone defense and seventh-worst third-down defense in terms of percentage.
The Cardinals cover 63% of the time with Kyler Murray as both the starter and as an underdog. When an underdog of 7 or more, Murray is 5–2–2, according to Twitter analytics. It helps when Kyle Shanahan is 8–11 against the spread as a home favorite after winning and covering in the previous week.
Pick: Arizona +7.5, Win: SF
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) v. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Cowboys are without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence this week, while also missing Brandin Cooks, meaning this already-thin offense is down another piece.
By the way, no team worse at stopping runs up the middle than this year’s Cowboys defense. And that was with Parsons and Lawrence on the field. I expect a lot of Najee Harris plunges between the guards, and it could actually work against this team.
Dak will have to do everything against this defense in order to win, and Pittsburgh ranks as the league’s №1 defense. And while Dak is .500 against the spread as an underdog, that record changes 3–10 against the spread after 2019.
Pick: Pittsburgh -1.5, Win: Pittsburgh
New Orleans Saints (+6) v. Kansas City Chiefs
I took Kansas City against the Falcons last week, and got lucky with a near lack of a cover. Through four games, the Chiefs are undefeated with a point differential of +20, seventh in the league.
The Chiefs covering large spreads is just a terrible bet. Patrick Mahomes is 17–22 against the spread as a home favorite of more than 3 points in his career, while Derek Carr is 25–18 against the spread as a road underdog of more than 3 points.
And this Chiefs team, at least on offense, is probably the worst of Mahomes career this week. Kelce looks old and dilapidated (until the playoffs of course), there’s no Rashee Rice and the run game is a complete mess. Xavier Worthy might be the team’s №1 weapon.
Pick: New Orleans +6, Win: New Orleans
Dice Throws
New York Jets (+2.5) v. Minnesota Vikings
Am I zagging on the Minnesota Vikings after a month of data? I want to, mainly because I need a big performance from Garrett Wilson this week in fantasy, but the Vikings are real — at least in the regular season.
The team dwarfs the rest of the competition in overall pressures while having the 11th-best defensive DVOA since the merger. The coaching discrepancy alone in this game makes this enticing for Minnesota, as O’Connell feels like a top 5 head coach in the league right now, and Saleh is much closer to bottom 5.
With as much pressure Minnesota can bring and how statue-esque the aging Aaron Rodgers can be (taking five sacks last week while the team admitted he’s hurt earlier this week), this could be a disaster.
The only unknown here is the travel to Europe, which makes this game a dice throw. Beyond playing across international waters, how are these teams less than a FG apart? The Jets lost to Bo Nix last week who had less than 3 yards per attempt!
Pick: Minnesota -2.5, Win: Minnesota
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) v. Washington Commanders
Much has been made of Washington’s offense and lack of punting. Punter Tress Way has four punts on the year! But this has been a product of facing the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals defenses in the last three weeks. Those units have poor secondaries and even poorer pass rushes.
Cleveland’s defense is still tough. Maybe not 2023 tough, but tough.
You know what else is a red flag? According to Pickswatch, Washington has the highest percentage of bets per Week 5 matchup. This might be a huge letdown for the betting public.
For some reason, Deshaun Watson’s passing is agreeing with PFF’s metrics. He ranked №3 in passing grade from Week 4, higher ranked than Jayden Daniels.
Kevin Stefanski is 8–3 against the spread when coming off a loss while listed as an underdog the following week. That includes five outright wins, according to Twitter data. Stefanski is also 6–1 against the spread as underdogs on the road. Look, they gave that guy two Coach of the Year awards for a reason.
Pick: Cleveland +3.5, Win: Cleveland
Green Bay Packers (-3) v. Los Angeles Rams
Jordan Love hung in there against Minnesota in his first game back, losing 31–29 despite trailing 28–0 in less than 25 game minutes. He committed a ton of turnovers, but matched it with multiple scoring drives and explosive plays.
On the opposite side, the Rams rank 28th in pass defense EPA while allowing the second-highest rate of explosive pass plays. That spells trouble for the Rams facing Green Bay.
Love will continue to find his sea legs as the year goes on, and this Packers defense leads the league in takeaways and turnover differential through the first month of the season.
Pick: Green Bay -3, Win: Green Bay
Stay Aways
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) v. Chicago Bears
Carolina is difficult to predict in the Any Dalton era due to the team’s porous defense, but its ability to backdoor cover with its high-tempo offense.
No Jonathan Brooks yet, but Chuba Hubbard has been more than sufficient. It’s the defense that worries any bets being thrown down. Four defensive starters have been ruled out, including Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewel, and Shy Tuttle is no guarantee to play either.
So, Carolina’s susceptible run defense against Chicago’s inept run offense. I don’t think this defense can take advantage of Caleb Williams’ many mistakes, similar to Los Angeles, to cover this game.
Pick: Chicago -3.5, Win: Chicago
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bills ravaged the Jaguars in prime time, only to falter in a similar fashion against Baltimore. Now Baltimore has to suit up against a red-hot Bengals team after two really strong offensive performances.
This could be the zag and the “come back to Earth” game for the Ravens, but its an interesting spot for Baltimore. By Week 5, they’re 2–2 and could twist the dagger in the Bengals’ season by handing them a 1–4 start. 2–3 is not a great spot to be in, so the motivation is two-faced.
Motivation is one thing, but what’s the track record? Joe Burrow has won just one game in his last four tries against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson meanwhile is 5–2 against the spread in his last seven games in Cincinnati.
And guess what? By Week 5, Baltimore has an identity. The team is 2nd in PFF grade in rushing offense, and 3rd for rush defense. This is a ground-and-pound turnover-limiting offensive attack. Cincinnati has yet to show any consistency by this stage of the season.
Cincy has yet to draw up a pass rush (30th in sacks and 25th in QB hits) while Baltimore could potentially bully Burrow (8th in sacks and 3rd in QB hits).
Baltimore’s lack for closing games could be tough on the rough against a peaking Joe Burrow, but I really like where the Ravens are as a team right now.
Pick: Baltimore -2.5, Win: Baltimore
Buffalo Bills (+1) v. Houston Texans
I would normally side with Buffalo for a bounce-back game against a “quietly” underwhelming team this year. Houston has won its three games by a combined 12 points while losing to Minnesota by 27 in Week 3.
But, according to Clev Analytics, teams without at least one cover against the spread through the first four games cover in Game 5 55% of the time. And this is a unique situation, as the team has won straight up 75% of the time this season — highly uncommon for a team without one cover.
Also, Buffalo is without its best receiver, Khalil Shakir. Houston is not, and they have Stephon Diggs on their side. Diggs is in a new phase of his career, but should be highly motivated to show Josh Allen and company out.
Stroud should thrive against this beat-up defense with no pressure in the middle in a game they can properly exclaim, “We’re here!”
Pick: Houston -1, Win: Houston
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) v. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts pivoting to Joe Flacco with less than 24 hours until game time would be a good sign to surprise the opposing defense. But there are too many injuries to overcome.
Jonathan Taylor, DeForest Buckner, Kenny Moore, Tyquan Lewis and Kwitty Paye are all out with even more guys who are questionable. Jacksonville is getting healthier with the return of tight end Evan Engram and Josh Allen avoiding a long-term injury.
The Colts have not beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville since 2014, and a big storm is brewing down south. And this Jags team is better than some of those previous iterations. We’re a kitchen sink game x2 now, so I’m taking the Jags over the messy Colts. Pedersen is fired by 3 p.m. if they fall to 0–5.
Pick: Jacksonville -2.5, Win: Jacksonville
Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) v. Denver Broncos
Davante Adams-less Raiders offense against this defense? Could spell doom for Gardner Minshew and Antonio Pierce. Can the Raiders lean on the run? Well, they rank as the worst rush offense in the NFL and don’t have Zamir White available this week.
According to Action Network, Denver has faced the sixth toughest schedule in terms of quarterback play. Minshew, who I love, might be a nice break for this ferocious team, especially with missing weapons.
Minshew is just 6–11 against the spread as a road underdog in his career.
Pick: Denver -2.5, Win: Denver