2024 Week 8 NFL Picks

Homer pick

Buffalo Bills (-3) v. Seattle Seahawks

Mike Jerrell was treated as a revelation throughout Seattle after the fourth-string tackle stepped in to start, protecting Geno Smith to the tune of 1 sack while creating room for a double lane for Ken Walker. Jerrell’s advanced stats in pass/run protection weren’t nearly as impressive as the eye test, but his performance has acted as a lone bright spot for the blocking unit.

Now Josh Allen is coming into town, and his scrambling ability provides an additional challenge to defenses susceptible to mobile QBs, like Seattle.

Doesn’t help that Allen is also bringing James Cook, Khalil Shakir and recently-acquired Amari Cooper into town with him as well. The Bills beat the Jets on a short week without any of those guys, then stomped on Tennessee when they did.

Could spell trouble for Seattle, even with Riq Woolen returning, as they are expected to be without DK Metcalf.

Pick: Buffalo -3, Win: Buffalo

Locks

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It hurts to turn my back on Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, but this is a bad spot, and the embarrassed Falcons can use this week as a bounce-back.

There’s a ton of stats and data and how impactful Chris Godwin was to Mayfield and the offense at large. With him and Mike Evans both out, alongside a beat-up Bucky Irving, this offense has too many new faces and underwhelming talent behind them to win such a pivotal game in such a quick turnaround.

Baker Mayfield ranks 12th among QBs by PFF grades on the season, but in the last two weeks, he ranked just 26th against the Saints and Ravens and logged seven turnover-worthy plays. He had just five in the previous five weeks.

It helps that teams fresh off a 14+ home loss as a favorite, yet remain favored on the road the following week, are 33–20 against the spread.

Pick: Atlanta -2.5, Win: Atlanta

Carolina Panthers (+10.5) v. Denver Broncos

I’ve taken most of the underdogs with the very large point spreads, but I’m not letting the paltry panthers join that group. No. You can’t make me. I refuse to bet on this stupid team.

No Diontae Johnson, but yes to Bryce Young? Against this defense? Sure, why not?

Carolina lost by 33 to Marcus Mariota a week ago. Jayden Daniels was pulled after one drive and Mariota went on to lead six straight scoring drives. He finished 18/23 for 205 yards and 2 TDs and 34 rush yards.

Pick: Denver -10.5, Win: Denver

Chicago Bears (-3) v. Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels is looking like he’ll miss this game, which makes this an easy fade for me. Marcus Mariota looked great against Carolina, but that’s not a QB I want to back, especially after his disastrous Falcons tenure.

Chicago is off a bye and Caleb Williams is rounding into shape. Now he gets to face another bottom-10 defense without Jayden Daniels making magic happen on the other side? Sign me up.

Washington is 9/9 on 4th downs and ranks 3rd in 3rd down conversions over expected. This will drop with Marcus Mariota playing.

Update: Jayden Daniels is playing, wow! Take the points if he’s active, hopefully more than one quarter.

Pick: Washington +3, Win: Washington

Dice Throws

Indianapolis Colts (+5) v. Houston Texans

20–20. 32–31. 31–20. 23–19. 29–27. Yes, Houston is 4–0–1 against Indy in its last 5, but look at those scores. Some of these games even predate C.J. Stroud, but it doesn’t matter. These divisional games are tight on a consistent basis.

It’s a great spot for Anthony Richardson here. He’s had success against this team, the Texans are down Nico Collins (the league leader in yards before injury) and he’s getting reinforcements with Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner returning.

These teams aren’t on the same level of talent, but they matched up on a good week and always have close bouts.

Pick: Indianapolis +5, Win: Houston

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Either Green Bay gets exposed here, or Jacksonville ends the Doug Pederson tenure. I’m gonna guess the latter happens.

Green Bay’s defense is good. It’s giving up 18.0 points per game in its last three and continues to force turnovers at a ridiculous rate. If Jordan Love can clean up some of his more dangerous throws, look out league.

And Love is a tough QB to play when Jacksonville ranks last in drop back EPA allowed. Doesn’t help that they have a slot killer in Jayden Reed (second-most yards in the slot) while Jacksonville is bottom-four in preventing catches from the slot. This is just a tough matchup.

Pick: Green Bay -3.5, Win: Green Bay

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) v. Miami Dolphins

Woah, this line is the Vegas Zone, watch out. Who knows what will happen in this game.

I don’t love Tyreek Hill’s late-into-the-week injury, but the word is he has a better chance to play than not to play. The true injury that makes or breaks this team is Tua. In the Tua era, they are just 2–7 without him. This offense can not function without him.

If you want to beat Tua, pressure him quickly without sending extra defenders. The problem is Arizona ranks №31 in the league in quick pressure rate.

Also, Miami’s defense fares well against opposing QBs and continues to hold itself together despite various injuries while Arizona is just a mess on that side of the ball.

It’s now 33 starts in a row where Kyler Murray hasn’t won two games in a row either. After sneaking out of a MNF victory over LAC and the release of the latest Call of Duty, lean the Fins here.

Pick: Miami -4.5, Win: Miami

New York Jets (-7) v. New England Patriots

When the world zigs, we zag. Yes, the entire football-watching audience is exhausted from the Jets and Aaron Rodgers, but this is the time to jump on them.

Teams coming home from a trip to London and playing without a bye are just 6–10 against the spread, according to Clev Analytics, and that is even a bigger disadvantage for a team with a rookie quarterback and coach.

Outside of a Will Levis victory, beating the Pats on a short week is all this Jets team has. But it’s a must-win game, Devante has another week under his belt with this squad and Breece Hall is starting to finally cook.

I like Drake Maye, just not at this spot. And it’s not like New England’s defense is anything special. After a strong couple of weeks, the Patriots defensively rank 25th, according to PFF.

Pick: NYJ -7, Win: NYJ

New Orleans Saints (+7) v. Los Angeles Chargers

I’ve liked the Chargers all year, but why are they 7-point favorites over anyone?

LAC has scored between 17–23 points in five of its six games (26 points against Carolina), and now have to play a team coming off a long rest (10 days) against their 6-day rest.

Teams with a 3+ day rest advantage while still being an underdog of 7 or more points are 89–75 against the spread this century, according to sharps on Twitter.

To help prepare Spencer Rattler alongside the additional rest, he’s also getting WR Chris Olave, QB/TE Taysom Hill, G Lucas Patrick and C Ceaser Ruiz all back in the rotation. Not a bad group of reinforcements.

Pick: New Orleans +7, Win: LAC

Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) v. Las Vegas Raiders

I love picking the Chiefs as an underdog and love fading them when they’re a heavy favorite. That changes today.

Part of this pick is emotional. It’s a divisional opponent. Mahomes and Co. have utterly dominated until they had a very disappointing loss to them on Christmas last year. Of course, that game truly felt like the lowest point of the Mahomes dynasty, but it really became the start of their miraculous Super Bowl run.

With that game fresh on everyone’s minds, and the Raiders being punk idiots by deciding to taunt him with a Kermit the Frog doll dressed as him during training camp, I can see the Chiefs actually want to get up from bed and score some points for once.

They even brought in DeAndre Hopkins. With all the talk about Mahomes having more TDs than INTs, isn’t this the week to shut everybody up?

Also, Kansas City has the best defense in football right now. When Gardner Minshew plays a top-10 EPA pass defense as a starter, he’s just 2–9 against the spread.

Pick: Kansas City -8.5, Win: Kansas City

Dallas Cowboys (+5) v. San Francisco 49ers

Ok, can I get a SF injury recap real quick? Thank you.

Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season. Deebo Samuel is expected to miss more time while he battles pneumonia. Jauan Jennings has been ruled out. Ricky Pearsall is in the lineup after getting shot in the offseason.

Additionally, Jordan Mason and George Kittle are hobbled by their own injuries. And Christian McCaffrey is still out.

And, on top of all that, when this team has had more of its pieces together on the field, they were still losing games. Blowing leads to the Rams and Cardinals, SF has one win against a team north of .500, the Seattle Seahawks.

Dallas is healthier off the bye, and Dak Prescott should have the LeBron James staredown v. Boston in his head all week long. This franchise has long foiled his efforts at a deep postseason run; now is his chance to enact some revenge.

Pick: Dallas +5, Win: Dallas

New York Giants (+5.5) v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Look, if Daniel Jones continues to start, I’m going to continue to fade. It’s embarrassing that his last win as a starter could be against my Seattle Seahawks, but he looks destined for the bench after the bye.

Danny Dimes struggles with pressure and averages only 200 passing yards a game. His scrambling is the third-worst of his career (26.3 yards per game), and his attempts per rush is a career-low 3.7.

The Giants are averaging 14.1 points per game (30th) and now have to play this vaunted Steelers defense? I just don’t see it. Give me Russell Wilson to be a 2–0 starter for this club instead.

Pick: Pittsburgh -5.5, Win: Pittsburgh

Toughies

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals

With AJ Brown in the lineup, the Philadelphia Eagles are 3–0 straight up and are 2–1 against the spread.

Saquon. AJ. Devonta. That’s a lot to throw at a defense that beat the Browns, who needed 3 QBs to complete the game and were without Amari Cooper, by just 7 points. The week before? The Bengals beat the NY G-Men without Malik Nabers 17–7.

Cincinnati’s defense is just not up to par this year. Pro Football Focus ranks them at №20, more than double behind Philly’s №9 ranking. The Eagles still have an elite pass rush to bother Joe Burrow enough, and too many weapons for the depleted defense on the other side to contain.

Pick: Philadelphia +2.5, Win: Philadelphia

Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) v. Cleveland Browns

Going with the Browns here mainly because a Jameis Winston backdoor cover is well within play. He stepped in last game as the team’s third QB, and went 5/11 while throwing the team’s only TD pass.

It also helps that the Ravens will be down to Brandon Stephens as its №1 CB while rookie Nate Wiggins takes the №2 role. A weak secondary just got weaker with no Marlon Humphrey.

And sometimes, addition comes through subtraction. Not to even weigh in on Deshaun Watson’s departure from the field, and the fans who let him hear it, this team could simply be more competitive now just with his absence.

Watson was sacked 4.7 times per game, nearly 1.5 times more than Jacoby Brissett, the second-most sacked QB.

Word on the street is Zay Flowers is playing. If he’s not, this moves to a near lock.

Pick: Cleveland +8.5, Win: Baltimore

Tennessee Titans (+11.5) v. Detroit Lions

According to some gambling sharps on Twitter, this is the largest spread for Detroit since the Barry Sanders days. Wow.

I’m slightly leaning toward Tennessee just because of the points and Detroit’s history as a heavy favorite. If Detroit crushes, I wouldn’t be surprised. The Titans are anemic and neutered at QB no matter who’s under center, they’re in the midst of a fire sale with its remaining talent, and the Lions are great against the run.

Maybe Mason Rudolph is a bit more competitive with another week under his belt, but after 14 starts, we know who Mason Rudolph is at this point.

Pick: Tennessee +11.5, Win: Detroit