2024 Week 9 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Houston Texans (+1.5) v. New York Jets
The Jets couldn’t even defeat, let alone cover against, the New England Patriots last week, dropping them to 2–6 and making them a real bummer to bet on.
It’s also difficult because as awful as the Jets are in one-score games (1–4), the Texans are 5–1 in those same situations.
But the most impressive the Jets have looked was on a Thursday night, so at least we know they can handle a short week. And they get to face a Texans offense that is missing Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. The Jets’ defense has been mediocre all season (16th rank on PFF), but they have the talent to perform at a high level, especially when the opposing offense’s top talent is out for the game.
At least Greg Zurlein has been replaced. Greg the Leg made just 60% of his kicks this year with nothing made over 40 yards. That is especially brutal considering the squad’s aforementioned 1–4 record in one-score games.
Pick: New York -1.5, Win: New York
Homer pick
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) v. Los Angeles Rams
Would love for the Hawks at home to bounce back after the thrashing they took from the Buffalo Bills, and there is a slight edge for teams in their situation. Home teams coming off a three-score loss that are underdogs once again are 53% against the spread since 2000.
But, the Rams offense has Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua active in the lineup. Yes, Nacua reinjured his knee, but when these four guys are playing, the Ram offense is first in EPA per play, Dropback EPA, Dropback success rate, Success rate, Rushing success rate, Points per drive, Yards per play and Rush EPA.
With the way the Seahawks’ defense is playing, they are simply no match. And Sean McVay has quite the track record against the Seattle Seahawks (10–5).
D.K. Metcalf has been ruled out for one more week, and I think it’s too much to overcome.
Pick: LAR -1.5, Win: LAR
Locks
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) v. Atlanta Falcons
Dallas’ spiral to a top pick in the 2025 draft continues to accelerate with each week, making them impossible to feel confident to bet on, against the spread or not.
Ezekiel Elliot isn’t an option for the league’s worst rush offense, but Rico Dowdle is set to return. Defensively, Trevon Diggs, Daron Bland, DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons are all set to miss this game.
With no Diggs or Lawrence on the pass rush, Dallas is losing 11 of the team’s total 23 quick pressures. Not only is this a matchup Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgier can absolutely take advantage of, but so can Kirk Cousins — who’s been absolutely sizzling in three of his last four games.
Pick: Atlanta -2.5, Win: Atlanta
Denver Broncos (+9.5) v. Baltimore Ravens
It’s a tough spread to cover against a team that’s won four of its last five and a third-ranked overall defense, according to PFF.
It also doesn’t help that Baltimore is in the bottom three in receiving yards allowed per game, giving up nearly 300 passing yards per contest.
This is a brilliant matchup in terms of offensive/defensive ranking. Ravens are №1 in overall offense and №2 in total points scored. Denver’s defense is third in yardage allowed and third in points allowed. So, with a matchup this close and such a susceptible defense on the other end for Baltimore, a near 10-point cover seems ridiculous.
Backdoor cover available? The Broncos don’t have a sexy slew of receiving weapons, but Bo Nix is 7th in 20+ yard completions, while Baltimore is 31st in allowing 20+ yard completions this year.
Pick: Denver +9.5, Win: Baltimore
New Orleans Saints (-7) v. Carolina Panthers
This one is pretty simple. Spencer Rattler is back on the bench and Derek Carr has returned. Carolina removed Diontae Johnson in order to improve a 6th-round pick to a 5th-round pick and will continue to give Bryce Young an opportunity.
New Orleans has a lot of injuries and Carr coming off an oblique injury cold isn’t ideal, but when has this Panthers team shown it can cover a single-score spread? This team is atrocious and New Orleans will look to squash them in a divisional game.
Pick: New Orleans -7, Win: New Orleans
Washington Commanders (-3.5) v. New York Giants
Jayden Daniels still had some miracles left in him in his rookie QB duel despite nearly not playing due to injury. Now he gets a week to recover and get back to rhythm before facing a very weak secondary in the New York Giants.
But beyond Daniels, the Washington defense has really turned. According to ClevAnalytics, Washington has gone from the 32nd-ranked EPA defense (and the 32nd-ranked defense vs the pass) in the first three weeks to the fourth-ranked defense (№1 vs the pass) since Week 4. Nice job by Dan Quinn in a Coach of the Year bid.
Good thing this defense faces Daniel Jones, who’s spontaneously combusting before our eyes just weeks after looking like a professional quarterback in his win in Seattle. Take Daniels and ride the miracle season.
Pick: Washington -3.5, Win: Washington
New England Patriots (+3) v. Tennesee Titans
I don’t have many answers for New England on their current strategy. After shuffling their feet on starting Drake Maye or not, he comes into the season on a team that can’t block for him, and gets concussed immediately. As for the rest of the roster, it’s a bunch of guys this current coaching staff and management group resigned from Bill Belichick’s last year, and now they’re trying to offload them all eight weeks later? Very strange.
But for gambling purposes, Drake Maye is playing. And he’s something for New England. Something to align themselves behind a build around. There’s nothing to build around on this Titans team, a team that is also offloading talent by dropping them like cargo on a sinking ship.
There’s no coach, quarterback, or stud player Tennesee can rally around. So, I will not take them to win anything by more than a field goal.
Pick: New England +3, Win: New England
Dice Throws
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) v. Kansas City Chiefs
Looks, it’s pretty simple. The Chiefs are an astonishing 39–3 as a favorite of more than 7 points when Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback, but they cover those games just 41% of the time (16–23–3).
It’s a tough spot for Baker Mayfield to be in. He’s down his top two receiving threats (one had 6 TDs and the other averaged 82 yards a game with 5 TDs) going up against the best defense in the league. Already at 9 INTs, Baker is someone who needs his weapons if he’s going to be successful.
I can see Baker throwing up some garbage time points, or even this game being competitive enough to be a one-score game. Kansas City is not interested in blowing teams out anymore, so I’m not going to take those chances against a playoff team when healthy.
Pick: Tampa Bay +9, Win: Kansas City
Toughies
Miami Dolphins (+6.5) v. Buffalo Bills
It’s tough to trust a team that is owned by another the way Miami is controlled by Buffalo in each of these contests in the Josh Allen era.
Since Josh Allen became the starter, Buffalo is 12–2 straight up against Miami, but only 6–7–1 against the spread. If Miami suits up treating this game like their season is on the line (which it is) and this is their Super Bowl, a cover is definitely in play.
Especially if Tua plays as well as he did in his return. The loss was unfortunate, but he had some sharp plays and De’Von Achane looked extremely dynamic with his quarterback returning. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can go up another level with Tua returning as well as going up against Buffalo’s pedestrian defense (20th on PFF).
Road teams that are underdogs in a rematch game where they lost by double digits in the first matchup cover at a 58% rate since 2000 as well.
Pick: Miami +6,5, Win: Buffalo
Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 0–3 without Tee Higgins so far this season, and 4–7 lifetime. With how poorly the defense has played, it’s tough to rely on the offense when it’s down a significant piece.
Speaking of significant pieces, the Bengals’ starting left tackle is also out, meaning Maxx Crosby is matching up against a backup.
Antonio Pierce is probably one of the worst coaches in the league this year and will not return in 2025, but he is 5–1 against the spread when he’s an underdog of 6 or more, including a 4–0 mark on the road.
Pick: Las Vegas +7.5, Win: Cincinnati
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) v. Cleveland Browns
I’m just a believer in this Chargers team. Only 12 squads have more wins than them; they’re nearly considered a top-10 team with a top-10 defense, according to PFF. They’ve been a pretty lousy red zone team (bottom three in red zone trips and TD drive percentage), but Justin Herbert has been playing some really great football, no matter what the numbers say.
Now Herbert gets a couple more weapons with D.J. Chark and Quentin Johnston healthy, and his defense gets to lick its chops going against Jameis. Look, Winston’s win over Baltimore was a nice story last week, but Baltimore has a tendency to lose games like that, and that defense dropped a minimum of three Winston INTs — including one on the final drive. Try that against this Chargers team (fifth in turnover differential with just four giveaways).
Pick: LAC -1.5, Win: LAC
Chicago Bears (+1.5) v. Arizona Cardinals
These two teams are just a half-game apart in terms of overall record, but their DVOA paints a completely different story.
Arizona has faced the №2 toughest schedule, according to DVOA, going up against five of the top 11 teams in the league. Meanwhile, Chicago has faced four of the bottom 12 ranking teams in its first eight weeks.
Chicago only has wins against Tennessee, Jacksonville, Carolina and the Los Angeles Rams when they were down both receiving options. They could be fool’s gold. Matt Eberflus is 12–16 against the spread as an underdog in his career as a head coach.
Also, from a scheme perspective, the Bears run the fourth-highest usage of Cover 3 defense, a set that Kyler Murray has some of his most success with, especially with Trey McBride.
Caleb Williams, on the opposite side, struggles heavily on the road early into his career. The Bears haven’t scored more than 16 points on the road.
Pick: Arizona -1.5, Win: Arizona
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) v. Philadelphia Eagles
All the talk about firing Nick Sirianni needs to be put on pause because, at least with the team healthy and all the weapons active, this team is rolling in a competitive NFC.
The Eagles are 4–0 straight up and 3–1 against the spread when A.J. Brown is playing, averaging 30 points per game. Not good for the Jaguars when they run primarily man on defense, something that this offense exploits when healthy and stretching the field.
All this while Trevor Lawrence, in the midst of a troubled season, is down his top three receiving weapons most likely. It’s Evan Engram and Parker Washington. And it’s not like the offensive line or running back room is healthy, either. It’s a wrap for the Jags folks.
Pick: Philadelphia -7, Win: Philadelphia
Detroit Lions (-3.5) v. Green Bay Packers
This is one of the biggest matchups of the year, but it’s also the first game Detroit is playing outdoors. Jared Goff is an MVP candidate when playing behind an elite offensive line in a dome, but in wet, rainy conditions, it’s another story.
According to some Twitter gambling sharps, among Goff’s 16 worst EPA games of his career, 13 have been outdoors.
Even with Jordan Love having the most INTs in the league (tied with Mahomes and Mayfield), Green Bay is fourth in the league in turnover differential. This defense has 19 takeaways.
Jordan Love is 10–6 against the spread as an underdog in his career, while Matt LaFleur is 24–11 against the spread as an underdog.
Pick: Green Bay +3.5, Win: Green Bay
Indianapolis Colts (+5) v. Minnesota Vikings
The Indianapolis Colts are somehow 4–4 despite a pretty bad defensive, an inexperienced coach and all the quarterbacking drama that has come with Year 2 of Anthony Richardson.
Joe Flacco is a proven veteran who can win games in a pinch, but I just don’t like the matchup. Brian Flores’ blitzes at the highest rate of any defense in the league, and Flacco is a statue under center outside of one scramble for a first down per game.
The quarterbacks Indianapolis has faced this year include Tyler Huntley, Tim Boyle, Justin Fields, Will Levis, Malik Willis and Caleb Williams. Sam Darnold should have another nice game as Indianapolis will not find a way to pressure him, unlike Minnesota with Joe Flacco.
Sam Darnold only has one game with a passer rating under 100.
Pick: Minnesota -5, Win: Minnesota