2023 Week 1 NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) v. Carolina Panthers

My reputation is on the line with Desmond Ridder — at least it is at the offices I work at after I’ve talked nonstop about his potential with this roster all offseason. I truly believe he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL with the talents of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and the ill-famed tight end Kyle Pitts at his disposal. Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Bryce Young has just fellow rookie Jonathan Mingo to toss the pigskin to. D.J. Chark has been ruled out while free agent acquisition Adam Thielen, the eighth-least efficient receiver in football last year according to PFF, remains questionable, as of this reporting. On top of Head Coach Frank Reich’s 0–4–1 Week 1 record, the past eight No. 1 QBs having a combined 33 QBR and 0–7–1 record in Week 1, and not having Falcon’s head coach Arthur Smith’s unorthodox run scheme, Carolina is cooked to start the year.

Pick: Atlanta -3.5, Win: Atlanta

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) v. Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati started last year 0–2 before winning 12 of its next 14 games. This year, the Bengals lost both safeties and a corner — albeit just Eli Apple — while also losing the club’s starting tight end. Samaje Perine’s absence is the nail on the coffin that Cincinnati is merely treading water, not necessarily improving. Burrow was sacked 10 times less in 2022 compared to 2021, but he was still sacked the 6th-most times in the league. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns are ALL IN for 2023. Not including Nick Chubb’s religious crusade to conquer the entire NFL in honor of the late Jim Brown, the Browns are $14 million higher in its payroll then the next closest franchise. Whether or not Cleveland can escape a .500 season, they will leave Week 1 with a win.

Pick: Cleveland + 2.5, Win: Cleveland

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Two years ago, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers thumped the Buffalo Bills 23–16. Last year, with Mitch Trubisky, the Steelers beat the Bengals 23–20 in overtime. This year? Pittsburgh is hosting the San Francisco 49ers just in time for head coach Mike Tomlin to author a coaching clinic and begin the narrative that he’s long overdue for a Coach of the Year award. Pittsburgh went 7–2 to end the season last year, and that was without T.J. Watt mostly and Pickett throwing for just 7 TDs. But behind an offensive line that gave up 27 sacks in 13 Pickett games, skills position groups loaded with talent, and a healthy defense, Pittsburgh is lurking for a division title after a Week 1 win.

Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5, Win: Pittsburgh

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) v. Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville is poised for a monster season. After Kansas City’s offense sputtered on opening kickoff against a mediocre Detroit defense, the AFC conference is open for the Jags to take as its No. 1 seed. Jacksonville technically had an above-average defense (graded 15th out of 32 teams according to PFF), but awful tackling hindered whatever positives could have been found. Indianapolis might stumble into something fun and exciting with rookie head coach Shane Steichen, rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson (who completed just 45% of his passes in preseason), and disgruntled runner Jonathan Taylor, but it won’t happen Week 1.

Pick: Jacksonville -4.5, Win: Jacksonville

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) v. Minnesota Vikings

It’s time to bet on the Vikings’ regression. The team went 13–4 despite finishing 29th in net yards per play and 27th in DVOA — a measurement of a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Now Cousins is 35, the fourth-oldest starting quarterback in the league. The team also had the fifth-worst scoring defense last year. They’re a bad team playing a worse team, so I’m just banking on the cover and nothing more.

Pick: Tampa Bay + 6.5, Win: Minnesota

Arizona Cardinals (+7) v. Washington Commanders

This early in the season, why lay down 7 on a team like the Commanders — an 8-win club last year with a quarterback making his second career start (169 yards in his league debut) saddled by a bottom-10 head coach (I’m sorry Ron Rivera). Eric Bieniemy and Sam Howell could ignite this offense at some point this season with the team’s exciting WR duo, but why bank on it Week 1 when the entire betting community is fading Arizona just because of rabble-rousing coach Jonathan Gannon’s embarrassing hype speech.

Pick: Arizona +7, Win: Washington

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) v. Denver Broncos

I’m fading both teams pretty heavily in 2023, but I’m basing this cover on how slow this Denver rebuild will be. September is new head coach Sean Payton’s worst month in terms of win percentage historically and the roster is already more beat up than most. Josh McDaniels is just 17–28 as a head coach, but working with Jimmy Garoppolo again alongside Josh Jacobs off a career year and a healthy Devante Adams, the Raiders could be set to play spoiler in Week 1.

Pick: Las Vegas + 3.5, Win: Las Vegas

Miami Dolphins (+3) v. Los Angeles Chargers

The only reason Miami’s win estimation for 2023 is 9.5 is health. Tua Tagovailoa flirted with retirement in the offseason after suffering from three concussions while the skills positions players have frequented the IR. But with Vic Fangio in the fold anchoring the defense while Mike McDaniels helms the Tua-Hill-Waddle trio, Miami should be favored by 3, not an underdog, especially in LA where home-field advantage is non-existent. Miami is my pick for the AFC East and should get past the Chargers in Week 1.

Pick: Miami +3, Win: Miami

Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) v. Seattle Seahawks

One of the most suspicious Vegas lines of the week. The more confident pick is Seattle winning the game straight up instead of covering the line. The Hawks beat the Rams 27–23 when Stafford was under center, and then 19–16 in overtime when Baker Mayfield had to step in. But this Hawks team is adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the offense — a rookie WR who had 95 catches for 1,600 yards and 9 TDs in 2021 for Ohio State (Garrett Wilson had 1,050 yards and 12 TDs while Olave had 950 yards and 13 TDs). If Seattle can shore up its defense to a respectable level, this team will keep pace with San Francisco for the division title. Seattle’s defense was 25th in points allowed, tied for the worst finish under Pete Carroll since 2010, his first year back in the NFL. If pass rush specialist Brandon Jordan can coach this front seven up while a retooled secondary stays healthy, double-digit wins would be nearly a lock.

Pick: Seattle -4.5, Win: Seattle

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) v. New York Giants

Dallas is a bit of a blind spot for me this season, as the team boasts an intimidating defense on paper while Mike McCarthy is running the offensive plays. In the four years Kellen Moore was the offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys with a healthy quarterback, the offense finished no less than 6th in scoring in the league, including one top-ranked offense in 2021. It’s beginning to feel like Dak Prescott has played his best football at this point in his career, while Brian Daboll, the reigning Coach of the Year, is going to have his team the most prepared. I’ve picked the New York football Giants to be a wildcard over the Dallas Cowboys, and that starts with a Week 1 upset.

Pick: NY Giants +3.5, Win: NY Giants

Baltimore Ravens (-10) v. Houston Texans

In the largest point spread of the weekend, bettors are expecting a lot from Lamar Jackson, after missing the final six games of 2022, to immediately ignite an offense that features J.K. Dobbins still recovering from a torn ACL, rookie Zay Flowers, an aging Odell Beckham Jr., and Rashod Bateman — who’s had lower leg injuries since joining the NFL. And Mark Andrews is out. I’m not saying Baltimore is going to struggle all season, but DeMeco Ryans is fresh off coaching an elite 9ers defense. These Texans might have some fight in them.

Pick: Houston +10, Win: Baltimore

New Orleans (-3) v. Tennessee Titans

Games with spreads a field goal or less? Let’s look at the coaches. Mike Vrabel put on one of the greatest single-game coaching performances when the Titans pushed the soon-to-be NFL champs Kansas City Chiefs to a 20–17 finish when Malik Willis went just 5/16 passing for 80 yards (no TDs or INTs). Meanwhile, Dennis Allen and his 15–38 win-loss record is the coach on the other side. And for Tennessee, Jeffrey Simmons is back, Harold Landry is going to play, and DeAndre Hopkins has a chip on his shoulder. Tennessee wins in an upset.

Pick: Tennessee (+3), Win: Tennessee

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) v. New England Patriots

This is an interesting year for Bill Belichick and his New England Patriots. The receiving corps is still closer to the bottom of the barrel, but the run game is now multidimensional, the defense remains stout, and look! They hired an offensive specialist to call plays. But the Eagles are the most loaded roster in the NFL, and despite both coordinators moving on to different jobs, the fear of this team exploding with a touchdown drive in 80 seconds is enough to pick them to cover Week 1. Last year’s Eagles teams barely played in the 4th quarter on offense due to blowing out so many opponents, imagine what this team will look like for four whole quarters.

Pick: Philadelphia -3.5, Win: Philadelphia

Green Bay Packers (+1) v. Chicago Bears

Matt LaFleur has yet to lose 20 games as a coach despite being in the league for four years. That’s fifth in NFL history in terms of win percentage (Jim Harbaugh is 6th for reference). Now he gets to unleash his diabolical offense with a multi-year redshirted quarterback who won’t argue and offensive options both old and new. Will Jordan Love be good? Maybe, maybe not, but he will be serviceable in LaFleur’s system. The same can’t be said for Matt Eberflus. Chicago’s rebuild is not set to contend for the playoffs in 2023 just yet. Remember, the Bears only got a $20 million receiver, a first-round pick, and a second-round pick for the No. 1 overall pick (yes, more draft capital is coming over the next two years, its just not helping them now). Green Bay is a much more established team, and the club is not ready to turn the division over just yet.

Pick: Green Bay +1, Win: Green Bay

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) v. New York Jets

The vibes are bad with Buffalo. Von Miller remains out, Tre’Davious White logged a 62 PFF grade last year (had an 89 in his rookie season before a slew of ligament injuries), and the defense overall was one of the worst tackling teams in football. Stefon Diggs made a stink all offseason about his role in the playoffs and James Cook is a completely unproven commodity. The vibes are bad. The vibes are not bad on New York’s side. Whether or not that lasts with Aaron Rodgers, Robert Saleh, and Nate Hackett butting heads remains to be seen, but I think the Jets take the Monday Night slate and parlay that into a win. Lot of home teams are underdogs this week, and I like taking points as we start to see how the dust settles.

Pick: NY Jets +2.5, Win: NY Jets