2023 Week 2 NFL Picks

After starting the season 12–4, I’m publishing my TNF pick early before writing the rest of the week Friday and Saturday.

Thursday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles (-6) v. Minnesota Vikings

We saw this last year, just how much of it is going to repeat? Philadelphia kicked off its torrid 2022 season with a sloppy 38–35 win over the Detroit Lions. The Eagles then faced the Vikings on primetime (last year was a Monday, this year is a Thursday) and embarrassed them 24–7. And I’m far less confident in this iteration of the Vikes compared to last year. Jalen Carter logged a 92.1 grade on PFF in his professional debut. How do quarterbacks who rush for less than 100 yards in a season fare against this pass rush? The Eagles averaged a 7.5-point victory against those quarterbacks last year.

Kirk Cousins is 4–5 with mediocre stats when playing on Thursday Night, averaging a 94 passer rating and 304 yards against 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in nine games. To his credit, he has logged a passer rating north of 112 in three of his last four Thursday Night outings. But I’m still riding the “much” more talented Eagles.

Pick: Philadelphia -6, Win: Philadelphia

Week 2 Locks

Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) v. Detroit Lions

Who wouldn’t want to face Detroit right now at home after the team sold out of its season tickets for the first time in more than two decades, coming off a 10-day rest where they beat the defending champs on prime time?

I think the Hawks bounce back from its dreadful performance v. LAR, but Detroit is a brutal matchup. The club’s run defense graded favorably after allowing the 3rd-most rush yards last year, but it’s just not a unit fit to keep up with Detroit’s ground-and-pound attack between David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Hawks cover, but fall to 0–2.

Pick: Seattle +4.5, Win: Detroit

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) v. Los Angeles Rams

Sticking with the NFC West, I love the 49ers spot here. After coming off a huge Week 1 rout where many sharps (including myself) flirted with the idea of a Steelers upset, they get an overachieving Rams team that is still miles behind in terms of talent in its personnel. The Rams went 15-for-19 on 3rd down against Seattle, not a chance that is duplicated again.

Rams head coach Sean McVay is 9–5 v. Pete Carroll, but he’s also 4–9 against 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan.

Pick: San Francisco +7.5, Win: San Francisco

Miami Dolphins (-3) v. New England Patriots

Tua and his 4–0 record against New England travels to Foxborough for a primetime showdown. Vic Fangio wasn’t able to showcase his defensive strategies against quarterback Justin Herbert until the final minute, but New England, with its third-worst rated run blocking and ninth-worst pass blocking unit in Week 1, will be exposed for its poor line play.

This Miami team feels truly different (when healthy) and Bill Belichick doesn’t remove top weapons from games like he used to. Last year, Tyreek Hill had 8 catches for 94 yards in Week 1, Justin Jefferson had 9-for-139 and 1 TD, Diggs had 7–92 and then 7–104 with a TD in each game, Ja’Marr Chase had 8–79, and then Hill had 4–55 when quarterback was split between Teddy Bridgewater (19 attempts) and Skylar Thompson (21 attempts).

Pick: Miami -3, Win: Miami

Las Vegas Raiders (+8) v. Buffalo Bills

The 1–0 Raiders are the gambling world’s darlings after winning its first game against the Sean Payton Broncos while Buffalo lost in unbelievable fashion.

I’ve been off the Bills since the offseason, but this a perfect bounce-back “get right” game for Josh Allen. And when the Bills win, they win big. 25 of their last 31 regular wins have been by double digits … and they’re winning against the Raiders after that primetime embarrassment.

Pick: Buffalo -8, Win: Buffalo

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) v. Tennessee Titans

I personally thought Tennessee looked great against the Saints. Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins still have juice in the tank — at least for this season — while the defense mitigated any momentum Derek Carr could muster. The problem was Ryan Tannehill, who had an all-time abysmal performance in a very winnable game.

If Ryan Tannehill can be serviceable against the Chargers (the Titans had the lowest pass-blocking grade of Week 1 according to PFF, but the Dolphins had the 4th-worst pass-blocking grade and gave up 0 sacks), the Titans will be in the hunt for a wildcard spot. If not? We are going to see a lot more Malik Willis and Will Levis. Take Vrabel and the points.

Remember, teams have less than a 12% chance to make the playoffs after starting 0–2.

Pick: Tennessee +2.5, Win: Tennessee

New Orleans Saints (-3) v. Carolina Panthers

Three turnovers against a mediocre Atlanta Falcons defense spells doom for Carolina in Week 2. I continue to use Dennis Allen as a reason to fade the Saints, but that defense looked good against a potential wildcard team in the AFC.

Derek Carr should bounce back after a rough performance of his own against a secondary that was ranked fifth-worst (according to PFF) and the Panthers are without Jaycee Horn once again.

Pick: New Orleans -3, Win: New Orleans

Week 2 Dice Throws

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) v. Atlanta Falcons

This is one of my favorite games of the week as I picked both squads to be playoff teams. But the Packers are beat up in quarterback Jordan Love’s third career start of his career. Aaron Jones and his 11.5 yards-per-touch is out alongside Christian Watson, leaving Green Bay really vulnerable on offense. Romeo Doubs is limited as well, meaning rookie tight end Luke Musgrave will have a big role to fill. Doubs, A.J. Dillon, and Musgrave make for a pretty weak offense against a really smart coach.

Desmond Ridder didn’t look anywhere near amazing in his Week 1 over Carolina, but he remains turnover-free. Zero interceptions in his first 133 throws. Maybe he’s due for one, but he continues to escape turnovers while also possessing a nice ability to scramble.

When it comes to two inexperienced raw quarterbacks, I’m taking the more explosive offense in this tight contest.

Pick: Atlanta -1.5, Win: Atlanta

Baltimore Ravens (+3) v. Cincinnati Bengals

The line has ballooned to an area that makes me less confident and more comfortable, but when dealing with bounce-back performances, I’m looking for two things: An elite quarterback and a mismatch with said QB’s opponent. This week it’s Josh Allen against the Raiders and Joe Burrow against Baltimore’s depleted secondary. Marcus Williams and Marlon Humphrey are both out while J.K. Dobbins was lost for the season on the offensive side (alongside two offensive linemen).

Speaking of Baltimore’s offense, did it look that impressive against Houston? A 15-point 3rd quarter was the difference, but the Ravens still averaged under 5 yards a play. It was a unit that looked way too reliant on Zay Flowers, who caught everyone on Houston by surprise.

Plus, there’s no way Tee Higgins fails to bounce back from his goose-egg performance.

Pick: Cincinnati -3, Win: Cincinnati

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) v. Jacksonville Jaguars

I really, really want to take the Jacksonville Jaguars here, but the team’s lukewarm performance in Week 1 did not show enough to me that this squad, especially defensively, can contain Kansas City.

Remember, this was the №1 ranked offense last year, and it’s only really lost JuJu Smith-Schuster and his ticking time bomb of a knee. With 10 days rest, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones returning, and Patty freakin Mahomes at QB, it seems much more likely both teams leave Week 2 1–1 than Kansas City starting the season 0–2.

Last year, Kansas City beat Jacksonville 27–17 in the regular season, and then 27–20 in the playoffs with Mahomes missing a crucial drive. And they won the playoff game with just 218 yards.

Pick: Kansas City -3, Win: Kansas City

Chicago Bears (+2.5) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Are the woeful Bucs going to start the year 2–0? They proved to be much more competent after upsetting the Minnesota Vikings. Now they get to take on the Chicago Bears who looked just as rough as they did all last season. I don’t see a bounce-back game for Justin Fields here the same way I see it for Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.

Chicago has only covered one game in the last 11 and has lost by 16 or more points in four straight contests.

Pick: Tampa Bay -2.5, Win: Tampa Bay

New York Jets (+9.5) v. Dallas Cowboys

What if this Jets defense (the second-highest rated Week 1 defense according to PFF) is 2015 Denver Broncos great? Zach Wilson has about the same physical skills of a 2015 Peyton Manning without the football IQ upstairs. But that team went 12–4 and competed for a playoff bye. This team only needs to go 9–8 or 10–7 to earn a playoff spot.

And if the hypothetical is true, do we trust Dak Prescott to fare well against it without Kellen Moore? Prescott had a league-high 15 interceptions in 12 games last year (he had 4 INTs his rookie year despite throwing 65 more passes) and was pretty mediocre in his 2023 debut, albeit not much was asked from him.

Pick: NY Jets +9, Win: Dallas

Week 2 Stay Aways

Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) v. Houston Texans

Both teams helmed by rookie gunslingers played better than expected last week. Houston hung around against a rebuilt Ravens team until the final frame, while Anthony Richardson looked a lot more poised than he did throughout the preseason (he had a 20% jump in completion % from preseason to Week 1).

But Houston’s defense is the strongest unit between the two teams, and it’s the unit I trust the most, especially since it’s anchored by head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. Will that defense thrive against a rookie QB, a porous offensive line, and absolutely no run game to help the aforementioned rookie gunslinger? There’s definitely a strong chance.

I like Houston, but it’s a stay-away because it’s Week 2 of two rookie QBs! Who knows what’s going to happen.

Pick: Houston -1.5, Win: Houston

New York Giants (-4.5) v. Arizona Cardinals

I had high expectations for the Giants this season with another year of quarterback Daniel Jones working alongside head coach Brian Daboll and the inclusion of tight end Darren Waller, but oof did they stink on Sunday night.

The New York Giants operate best as an underdog receiving points, so this spot for them should make every bettor uncomfortable. Plus, the Giants logged a bottom-10 offensive line performance and got to face a front line that sacked Sam Howell six times.

Pick: Arizona +4.5, Win: NY Giants

Washington Commanders (+3.5) v. Denver Broncos

The Broncos will live in the stay-away section perpetually because it remains the most unpredictable team in the league.

But after Washington’s lackluster win against Arizona, I’m leaning toward Denver as its defense might be too disruptive for quarterback Sam Howell to handle in his first road start.

If Howell can exploit Denver’s other corners not named Pat Surtain, Washington can keep it close and cover. But I’m not picking Sam Howell based on the sample size we have so far.

Pick: Denver -3.5, Win: Denver

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) v. Pittsburgh Steelers

My biggest Week 1 whiff? Steelers upsetting the 49ers to open 2023. But I want to give this Steelers team another week to evaluate before hopping off the ship.

Cleveland’s defense looked incredible against the Cincinnati Bengals, but the Bengals have started slow for a couple of years in a row now. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson looked better? At least that’s what people keep telling me when he completed 55% of his throws for barely more than 150 yards. This will need to be another big Nick Chubb game, not like he isn’t up for it.

This might be the best value the Steelers get all year, so I’m willing to walk into fire for them … for at least one more week.

Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5, Win: Pittsburgh