2024 Week 13 NFL Picks
Turkey Day Football
Chicago Bears (+9.5) v. Detroit Lions
The Lions continue to astound bettors everywhere as they prove to cover game spreads at a rate we’ve never seen before. The team is 9–2 against the spread on the year, and that includes four covers of 10 or more points.
I thought teams could be within striking distance of this club with Aidain Hutchinson gone, as the team only has 10 sacks in the six games without him. But no, the defense remains just as stout with multiple Pro Bowlers in its secondary.
The Lions are also hosting Head Coach Matt Eberflus and rookie QB Caleb Williams on a short week with the nation watching. This just feels like another big cover, and let’s not be scared of the # anymore.
Favorites on Thanksgiving cover 63% of the time since 2000, but according to Clev Analytics, the numbers are even more impressive if you remove Dallas’ 7–11 against-the-spread record as a favorite on Turkey Day.
Pick: Detroit -9.5, Win: Detroit
New York Giants (+3.5) v. Dallas Cowboys
Now it’s Drew Lock’s turn for the G-Men. Tommy Devito was four days off of being a Turkey Day starter, but now has to watch on the sidelines like the rest of us for the epic clash that is Cooper Rush v. Drew Lock.
Dallas will be playing its third game in 11 days, the fourth team to have that clogged of a schedule this year. In that third game, teams were 1–2 against the spread.
Dallas simply shouldn’t be favored by more than a FG over … anyone. As astounding as last Sunday’s win was, that only increases the chances that this sputtering Dallas team fails to score 20 on a short week.
Lock is 13–9 against the spread as a starter in his career, and an impressive 12–7 against the spread as an underdog. Meanwhile, you see Dallas’ struggles on Turkey Day in the blurb above. And this is the worst version of them yet.
Pick: NYG +3.5, Win: NYG
Miami Dolphins (+3) v. Green Bay Packers
Maimi is traveling to Lambeau Field, where it’s expected to be very cold, and quite possibly bring us back-to-back Thursdays of snow football.
Which leaves us with Tua in the cold, where he’s 0–6 in his career in games when it’s 46 degrees or colder.
“Yeah, I mean I’m excited to kill narratives, so let’s go,” Tagovailoa said afer the 34–15 victory against the New England Patriots on Sunday when the temperature at kickoff was 77. “Bring it on.”
I just need to see it first, and this defense is extremely oportunistic with its turnovers. The last time Tua had a cold game in Green Bay, Miami lost 26–20, and scored 0 points in the 2nd half.
Pick: Green Bay -3, Win: Green Bay
Black Friday Football
Las Vegas Raiders (+13) v. Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes makes betting on him easy — take the money line and bail.
Last week, we shared that Mahomes is 0–3–1 against the spread as a road favorite of 10+, despite being 4–0 straight up. That came true again in a 30–27 win over Carolina.
Could Kansas City show up with a fire in their eyes and beat this team by 20? It’s possible, but it’s also possible that Las Vegas treats this as their Super Bowl before punting on the season for good. The quarterback situation is murky, which seems disastrous against this defense, but teams have proven to hang around with Kansas City week after week, especially on a short week too.
Last year, the Raiders defeated the Chiefs without completing a pass after the 1st quarter, so QB play be damned!
Pick: Las Vegas +13, Win: Kansas City
Homer Pick
Seattle Seahawks (PK) v. New York Jets
Yes, the Seattle Seahawks have to travel across the country for this game, and yes, the New York Jets are coming off a bye — the fifth team Seattle has had to face with a rest disadvantage this year.
But what is there to like with the New York Jets? Breece Hall is suiting up, but prepare him to be limited. And the Hawks’ run defense — the Achilles heel of this team — has significantly improved. In the first eight games of the season, the team gave up 148 rush yards per game. Last three? 82 yards.
Seattle’s defense has also generated at least a 34% pressure rate in the last three games, which is a perfect counter to Aaron Rodgers’ statue-esque play within the pocket. Aaron is now down to his last couple of starts before a phantom injury prematurely ends his season. Just how hard is this Jets team going to play?
Pick: Seattle PK, Win: Seattle
Locks
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) v. New Orleans Saints
It’s been three weeks since the Rams have had an impressive win, but it is still a McVay-Stafford-led team. It’s hard to be confident in the Saints as they have been absolutely decimated. The offensive line is banged up, there are only three wide receivers left on the roster and the team needs its rookies to really deliver in several spot starts.
The Saints’ run defense is dead last once you adjust for each matchup, meaning both Stafford and Kyren Williams should have plenty of time to move the ball downfield.
On the opposite side, the Rams are bringing its №1 pass rush rate in the league against Derek Carr — one of the worst QBs in the league against pressure.
Pick: LAR -2.5, Win: LAR
Dice Throws
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) v. New England Patriots
If you’re giving me less than 3 points, I’m happily fading this Patriots team.
The defense is a mess, ranking amongst the bottom 10 in run defense and coverage, according to PFF. New England generates sacks at a bottom-10 rate and, lastly, ranks fifth-to-last in passer rating allowed, with opposing QBs averaging a passer rating of 100 against New England. For your information, Detroit ranks №1 in passer rating allowed — Anthony Richardson’s last opponent.
This will all come in handy with Anthony Richardson playing. He has some very obvious flaws, but it takes a coach confident enough to make in-game adjustments and specific gameplans, something I haven’t seen from Jerod Mayo.
The Colts are an interesting team. They are very average and I feel like they have great weeks against bad teams, while getting exposed by good teams. I’m happy to take the Colts here with a rejuvenated Anthony Richardson.
Pick: Indianapolis -2.5, Win: Indianapolis
Tennessee Titans (+6) v. Washington Commanders
Tennessee not only covered, but won(!), against Houston despite a Will Levis pick-6. It was a truly amazing sight last week. I’ve picked Tennesee to cover games in the past, and have been burned by Levis and company’s idiotic, yet weekly mistakes, but this line is a lot to overcome.
Washington is clearly fading. With a combination of a limited Jayden Daniels in terms of mobility, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury undergoing yet another second-half season collapse.
New England is the only defense that Tennessee has faced that ranks worse than 18th in EPA all season. This week, they play Washington, who ranks 25th defensively.
It also helps that the Commanders are also a bottom-five run defense, which helps get the ball out of Levis’ hands.
Pick: Tennessee +6, Win: Washington
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) v. Carolina Panthers
Did you know that in the last three starts for Bryce Young, he ranks fifth in PFF grade among QBs??? Shocking, but he did lead a limited offense in terms of talent to 27 points against Kansas City’s elite defense.
Adam Thielen is back in the fold alongside young WR talent in Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette, and Bryce Young and the coaching staff have two varying running backs at their disposal. Chuba Hubbard has been special this year and Jonathan Brooks is finally back from his injury.
I like Tampa Bay long-term in winning that division; I just don’t like a multi-score cover for the Bucs, especially with a divisional matchup against a team growing and maturing every week.
Pick: Carolina +6.5, Win: Tampa Bay
San Francisco 49ers (+6) v. Buffalo Bills
Matt Milano has been activated for Buffalo, one of the team’s best defenders. That’s a huge upgrade for a unit that has been playing well above its expectations. The team’s defense ranks 16th, according to PFF, but is 7th in points allowed, averaging less than 20 points allowed per game.
Brock Purdy is back after a disastrous Brandon Allen start (why did they sign Josh Dobbs in the first place?), but could be limited after missing time with a shoulder injury.
Buffalo is also expected to have 2–4 feet of snow, something California teams aren’t always prepared for. Especially a team that has a couple of crucial injuries to its offensive line. Both starters on the left side, including All-Pro Trent Williams, are not expected to suit up Sunday.
Pick: Buffalo -6, Win: Buffalo
Toughies
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) v. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is off a bye and Los Angeles is coming off a short week playing Monday Night, AND this game has a 10 a.m. kickoff. It’s a really tough spot for the Chargers, but I just don’t love this Falcons team.
Atlanta won against Philadelphia in Week 2, lost a tough one (as always) against Kansas City and then beat a 2–1 New Orleans team. Since then, this Falcons club has only defeated a divisional rival they know very well (Tampa Bay) twice, the Carolina Panthers and the Dallas Cowboys in the game Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending injury.
And Atlanta’s pass rush situation is beyond pitiful. Maybe Matthew Judon fires up a three-sack performance after getting called out by his coach, but this team is averaging less than one sack per game. It’s not all-time bad in league history, but close.
Atlanta’s 1–4 record against playoff teams does not give me confidence when facing arguably the toughest opponent on their schedule since Week 3 (Kansas City).
Pick: LAC -1, Win: LAC
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) v. Cincinnati Bengals
Both teams are down a pivotal linebacker with Highsmith and Wilson out. The Bengals are coming off a bye with their backs against the wall and their head coach’s job on the line, while the Steelers thrive as always as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, and they’ve had longer rest than most as well.
Mike Tomlin is 42–28 against the spread as a road underdog in his career, and that includes a 16–8 record against the spread within the division as a road dog.
The temperature in Cincinnati is expected to be in the 20s, this could be another classic AFC North slugfest. And when that happens, I take the points.
Pick: Pittsburgh -3, Win: Cincinnati
Houston Texans (-3.5) v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Did you know Trevor Lawrence has a higher passer rating than C.J. Stroud? That’s kinda wild.
I still would MUCH rather have Stroud — despite his, in my opinion, explainable sophomore slump — and I do think we’re getting closer to seeing the Texans team that was advertised this summer.
Stroud, Collins and Mixon are an unbelievable triple threat on offense, and Tank Dell has averaged 73 yards a game over the last month.
Jacksonville is a bottom-five pass-rushing unit, which will help pick a team that boasts a bottom-10 offensive line. Texans bounce back in a big way here.
Pick: Houston -3.5, Win: Houston
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) v. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is coming off three straight road games, all straight-up wins. But when teams play three straight road games, they only cover at a 27% rate in their return home.
And this is a big spot for Arizona. The team won four in a row only to be spanked by Seattle and lose its grasp on first place in the division. Talk about a bounce-back opportunity.
This is set up as a first-round NFC playoff game, and I think the teams are evenly matched if Arizona can force Sam Darnold into a couple of bad mistakes. With this playoff matchup, I just don’t like giving up more than 3.
Pick: Arizona +3.5, Win: Minnesota
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) v. Baltimore Ravens
This could be the most likely Super Bowl matchup that doesn’t involve either Kansas City or Detroit. It’s also the true Offensive Player of the Year battle between Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.
Lamar Jackson is famously 23–1 against NFC teams (did you know his one loss was to Daniel Jones lol), including a 10–0 straight-up record against NFC teams at home.
If I had to choose which running back wins the matchup, I’d lean Henry. Philadelphia stacks the box at one of the lowest rates in the league, while Barkley has been limited in terms of yards per carry when facing a top-half run defense. Baltimore’s run defense will be the toughest one Barkley faces.
And if it comes down to Lamar v Hurts, I’m taking Lamar.
Pick: Baltimore -2.5, Win: Baltimore
Cleveland Browns (+6) v. Denver Broncos
Denver has one of the best second-half defenses in the league, meaning Cleveland needs to do most of its damage in the first half in order to cover.
Denver had a solid victory over a directionless Raiders team, but Cleveland is coming off extra rest (something we emphasize here in these picks), playing Thursday and getting to wait all the way until the following Monday.
But while Cleveland is 2–2 with Winston as its starter, with him throwing 7 TDs against 4 INTs in those games, Denver is 4–0 with Nix tossing 8 TDs against 0 INTs. One team is playing mistake-free football anchored by a strong defense, and another has no inconsistency on either side of the ball.
Cleveland is just 4–7 against the spread while Denver is 9–3. I just can’t fade this Broncos team while the playoff momentum is hot.
Pick: Denver -6, Win: Denver