2024 Week 12 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) v. Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh came off one of its biggest wins of the year defeating Baltimore, pushing Russell Wilson to 4–0 as a starter this year. On the opposite side of the fence, Cleveland was one of my four misses last week, getting killed by Taysom Hill.
So it makes sense to lean towards the zag here when it comes to AFC North matchups. Pittsburgh is 1–6 against the spread (0–7 straight up) under Mike Tomlin in divisional Thursday night games while playing on the road.
But this is a weather game. Thursday night’s forecast in Cleveland calls for a high temperature of 39 degrees. There is a 91% chance of precipitation by kickoff and 0.2 inches of snow-rain mix.
Wilson wasn’t good last week, and should lean on the run this game. There’s no telling how much Winston will throw, but he should follow Wilson’s lead here. I’m taking the points in a tough, short-week, divisional, bad-weather game.
Pick: Cleveland +3.5, Win: Cleveland
Homer Pick
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) v. Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals have won four in a row for the first time since 2021, and now come off a bye before facing the divisional rival Seahawks — a team that has won five straight against AZ.
The big question is, how long can this Arizona defense hold up? Seattle has all the weapons it needs to be a 25+ points-per-game team, and gets to go up against a sixth-worst graded defense, according to PFF.
But Seattle is only 15th in scoring, and goes on significant scoring droughts during games. It’s hard for this team to string four dominant quarters in a row. Advanced numbers regarding the team’s time of possession, red zone efficiency, and third-down conversion rate all leave much to be desired.
It’s the healthiest this Seahawks team has been all season, but Arizona’s run offense and physical size might be too imposing.
Pick: Arizona +1.5, Win: Arizona
Locks
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) v. Chicago Bears
Couple of things that scare me regarding the Minnesota Vikings. This is Minnesota’s third straight road game. And that doesn’t fare well against Chicago’s seventh-ranked defense, according to PFF.
Additionally, the Bears defense continues to evolve with Shane Waldron gone. According to Clev Analytics, Caleb Williams went 15/18 on throws under 2.5 seconds — a perfect counter to Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defensive scheme.
The less scientific observation about this game is predicting when Sam Darnold will turn into a pumpkin. He’s committed seven turnovers in his last three games, and is struggling to move the downfield at the consistent pace he was earlier in the season.
Pick: Chicago +3.5, Win: Chicago
Tennessee Titans (+7.5) v. Houston Texans
Tennessee has only scored more than 17 points twice all season, and is an astonishing 1–8–1 against the spread. Houston has struggled going against the spread this year, but this is a layup for them.
Will Anderson is back for Houston, and will face off against Tennesee’s fifth-worst run-blocking unit and second-worst pass-blocking unit. With that poor offensive line and Will Levis under center, the defense should feast. Houston will cover if the offense starts cooking, and they have a real chance to with Nico Collins back.
Pick: Houston -7.5, Win: Houston
Dice Throws
Kansas City Chiefs (-11) v. Carolina Panthers
Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs make it easy for us, and God bless them for that. Yeah, they disappointed us in the loss vs. Buffalo, but Mahomes is 0–3–1 against the spread as a road favorite of 10+, despite being 4–0 straight up.
Carolina has surprisingly won two in a row, and gets Adam Theilen and Jonathan Brooks back as reinforcements. They’ve scored 20+ two weeks in a row, while Kansas City has a tendency to play with their food.
Pick: Carolina +11, Win: Kansas City
Detroit Lions (-8) v. Indianapolis Colts
The battle of the cover kings. Detroit is 41–16 against the spread in their last 57 games, and is 17–6 against the spread when playing in a dome over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is 8–3 against the spread in the last two years when Richardson starts.
Indianapolis’ defense is nothing to remark on, but at least this defense plays a lot of zone defense. Jared Goff has proven to destroy man defenses, and Detroit is unstoppable regardless, but the zone scheme might hold up a tad better.
The Lions pass rush is really limited without Aidan Hutchinson. The team has 10 sacks in the five games since he was injured, including one or fewer sacks in three of those contests. If Indianapolis has Left Tackle Bernhard Raimann back, the Colts have a shot at a real upset, especially if Jonathan Taylor gets going.
Pick: Indianapolis +8, Win: Detroit
New England Patriots (+7.5) v. Miami Dolphins
Miami has scored 27, 27, 23 and 34 points since Tua has returned as the team’s mainstay QB, and should feast against a porous defense.
But Drake Maye has been playing very well, and continues to create a lot out of nothing. According to some sharps on Twitter, Maye has generated success rates that exceeded their opponents’ season average in four of five games. That’s a great sign.
With his cannon of an arm and scrambling ability, there is clear opportunity for the Patriots to at least cover.
New England’s pass blocking is pretty egregious, but luckily Miami has one of the bottom-10 pass rush units, giving Maye another chance to at least cover.
Pick: New England +7.5, Win: Miami
Dallas Cowboys (+10) v. Washington Commanders
Ceedee Lamb is suiting up for this game, so that’s something. And it is a divisional game, but that’s all the positives I can think of regarding Dallas.
Dallas has scored more than 20 points four times — in Week 1 against Cleveland, Week 3 against Baltimore in a loss, a Week 8 loss to SF and a Week 9 loss to Atlanta.
This defense has given up more than 25 points in the last five games.
Washington has slowed down in the last month, but this is a perfect pick-me-up game for the Commanders. Cooper Rush has no tricks up his sleeve left, and this team has no tricks up his sleeve with its depleted, uninspired offense. Don’t worry Jerry, the Sanders family is coming soon.
Pick: Washington, Win: Washington
Denver Broncos (-4.5) v. Las Vegas Raiders
Ameer Abdullah, who hasn’t logged more than 100 yards in a season since 2021, is the starting running back for the Raiders. That’s where this team is at by Week 12 of the 2024 season.
On the other side, Gardner Minshew’s dink-and-dunk style will falter against Denver’s elite defense. In addition to poor decision making from Head Coach Antonio Pierce and lots of turnover potential, I don’t see any upside with the Raiders this week.
With multiple injuries to the Raiders secondary and Bo Nix playing better with every week, it’s time to take the Broncos.
Pick: Denver -4.5, Win: Denver
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) v. Green Bay Packers
Brock Purdy is out. Nick Bosa is out. And Christian McCaffrey looks … limited in his return. Tough spot for the 49ers and their new starting QB Brandon Allen.
I would definitely be interested in a 49ers cover if Josh Dobbs was playing, but the word on the street regarding Allen is pitiful. Green Bay must flex its muscles against a franchise they generally struggle with.
And the Packers turned the ball over aggressively, ranking amongst the top in turnover differential. If Allen makes one or two additional mistakes, this game could be over fast.
Pick: Green Bay -5.5, Win: Green Bay
Toughies
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) v. New York Giants
Tommy Devito has gone over 200 total yards just three times in his career (and only once by passing #s only), and now has to play without Malik Nabers.
Darius Slayton, Wandale Robinson, Tyrone Tracy and Theo Johnson are … weapons, but with the team’s third-string quarterback anchoring the show, this could get very ugly. In the last two seasons, Devito ranks 51st out of 52 QBs in success rate and 50 out of 52 in EPA.
I like Tampa Bay coming off a bye with Mike Evans back in the lineup. They got some much-needed time to reinvent this offense with two different style running backs, Evans back as the team’s WR1 and fully using TE Cade Otton’s breakout season.
Road favorites off a bye are 89–61 against the spread since 2000. When both teams are fresh off a bye, the favorite is 13–8 against the spread.
Pick: Tampa Bay, Win: Tampa Bay
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) v. Los Angeles Rams
Two incredibly hot teams face off on Sunday Night — one that has won six in a row and another that has won four of its last five.
I like the Eagles here for one reason. They can win in multiple ways. Now the league leader in team rush yards, this squad can milk the clock and ground-and-pound with Saquon Barkley. Additionally, the Eagles defense can play.
The rookie pairing of corners they drafted both rank in the top 30 in defensive grade, per PFF, including Cooper DeJean ranking in the top 10. This is the perfect counter to the Rams’ two-headed passing attack.
And the Rams haven’t looked amazing in the last two weeks. They were exposed by the Miami Dolphins at home on prime time and barely beat the New England Patriots the following week. I’m fading the Rams at this point in the season in this matchup.
Pick: Philadelphia -2.5, Win: Philadelphia
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) v. Los Angeles Chargers
A great spot to take the Ravens after a devastating divisional loss where Justin Tucker missed a lot of crucial kicks. I can see Baltimore dominating this game with an emotional victory if all goes according to plan.
The Bengals were the first team the Chargers faced all season who ranked top 10 in points per game, and they scored 27 points and nearly had 30, if they didn’t miss kicks of their own. The Chargers also allowed the Titans to post their best EPA offensive game all season, so the defense is getting exposed just a tad right before facing the №1 offense in the league.
And if Derrick Henry gets outside, good luck. The Chargers have really struggled defending outside runs, ranking 29th in yards per carry and 30th in yards after contact.
Pick: Baltimore -2.5, Win: Baltimore