2024 Week 14 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) v. Detroit Lions
It feels stupid to fade the Detroit Lions right, as they’ve covered 9 of 12 games and look like the best team in at least the regular season this year.
But, despite being home, this might be a really good opportunity to fade them. They’re playing a division rival who’s on a three-game win streak, including defeating the Dolphins and 49ers by a combined score of 68–27 last two weeks.
The Lions are also reeling from injuries. Already depleted at linebacker, this squad is down an additional three defensive linemen, and this team is already struggling to create a pass rush without Aidan Hutchinson. On offense, left tackle Taylor Decker is also out this game.
And this will be the Lions’ biggest challenge in nearly six weeks. The last six QBs Detroit has faced are Mason Rudolph, an injured Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud without Nico Collins, Mac Jones, Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams. A healthy Jordan Love will be a true test for this depleted defense.
Pick: Green Bay +3.5, Win: Green Bay
Homer Pick
Seattle Seahawks (+3) v. Arizona Cardinals
This Seahawks offense continues to sputter into its league-average 23 points per game, but that really only happens if every tool in the tool chest is available. But RB Kenneth Walker, the team’s highest-graded player on offense by 6.4 points, according to PFF, is out — a huge blow to this team’s chances, in my opinion.
But Geno Smith in a dome is very enticing. Smith has started 13 games in his career in a dome. In those 13 games, he has never put up a negative EPA game and his teams have averaged 30.8 ppg.
In a game decided 16–6 two weeks ago, I don’t know if Arizona has enough tricks up its sleeves to win this game if Seattle’s offense takes another leap, let alone cover a FG.
Pick: Seattle +3, Win: Arizona
Locks
New York Jets (+5) v. Miami Dolphins
We’re just counting down the days until a phantom injury knocks out Aaron Rodgers for the rest of the season. But as long as the 24th-ranked QB in the league, per PFF, is still suiting up, betting against the Jets will be that much easier.
The points continue to climb against the Jets this week, as they will be short-handed. CB Sauce Gardner and RB Breece Hall are both not playing this week.
Even if this team was 100% healthy, they’re still playing on the road. The Jets have played in four road games, three have been losses of 13 or more points, and three of those offenses have dropped 30+ on the Jets.
Outside of a cold game at Lambeau against a 9-win squad, the Dolphins have been humming. The offense has hit 23 or more points in five of six games, and Tua looks sharp in his return. Miami is 14–8 against the spread when Tua is a home favorite.
Pick: Miami -5, Win: Miami
Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) v. Minnesota Vikings
We just wrote about Aaron Rodgers in the blurb above, but Kirk Cousins’ season might also be coming to an end soon. He looks old, tired and awful out there. In his last three games, he has four fumbles, six interceptions, seven sacks taken and ZERO TDs. He is not the same Kirk pre-injury.
Maybe against a soft defense, you can align with him and the Falcons, but DC Brian Flores is going to bring the heat. Minnesota is second in total sacks, and first in blitz rate. Atlanta is dead last in total team sacks, FYI. I wonder if Michael Penix will make a fourth-quarter appearance.
Minnesota also boasts the №1 run defense. So, with incredible defensive advantages against Atlanta, and no opposing pass rush to rattle QB Sam Darnold, how is anyone not taking Minnesota when favored by less than one TD?
Pick: Minnesota -5.5, Win: Minnesota
Dice Throws
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) v. New York Giants
New Orleans is hitting the road for the first time in a month (three home games + a bye), and that means they will be playing in cold New York weather (only 50 degrees and clear) but with wind gusts of 20–25 mph. I don’t know about you, but I don’t trust Derek Carr on the road in the cold anymore … if I ever did in the first place.
Carr is 6–19–2 against the spread as a road favorite in his entire career, including just 11–16 (41%) straight up in those games!
And I don’t trust Carr against a strong pass rush either. Dexter Lawrence is out for the year, a huge bummer for what would (or still could) have been an All-Pro season from him. But this team is still 7th in overall pass rush, according to PFF. Derek Carr under pressure struggles mightily.
Also, Taysom Hill is done for the season — the ninth-highest-ranked offensive player on the team per PFF. That, in addition to the plethora of injuries they’ve already suffered. I see this game being closer than this spread. The Saints are only two wins better than this team, after all.
Pick: New York +5.5, Win: New York
Carolina Panthers (+13.5) v. Philadelphia Eagles
I loathe taking favorites of 10 or more, and there is some serious trap potential with this game as they have the 9–3 Steelers next week, but this is a dream matchup for this ball club.
On just a yards-per-carry basis, according to Clev Analytics, five RBs (Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, Tyler Allgeier and Gus Edwards) have generated the highest ypc in any game all season against the Panthers’ run defense. Now All-World RB Saquon Barkley is coming into town with Eric Dickerson’s rushing title and an MVP trophy on his mind.
Jalen Hurts adds another dimension with his scrambling Devonta Smith is back alongside A.J. Brown. The only thing missing is TE Dallas Goedert, who’s out for the rest of the regular season.
And, as good as Bryce Young has played lately, I’m not trusting it against this now-elite secondary. PFF has two CBs for the Eagles in the top 23 in the league, and they have CB Darius Slay returning from injury for more support.
Lastly, Carolina is coming off an OT game. While the rest advantage doesn’t stretch into multiple days against Philadelphia, that extra time (80 defensive snaps for the defense) might be a hindrance against one of the elite teams in the league.
UPDATE: This line jumped up once more Saturday night to 13.5. I wrote a whole bunch about how the Eagles can cover a near 13-point spread, but this is too much now, especially if a trap game is lurking.
Pick: Carolina +13.5, Win: Philadelphia
Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield and breakout RB Bucky Irving (yes, I have him in both my redraft and dynasty league) are suiting up for this game, but I believe their injuries might be a little more severe than they are letting on. That, in addition to the team’s porous pass defense, makes the Raiders an intriguing dog.
I’m only intrigued because of how well Aidan O’Connell played against Kansas City. I used to peg KC as a top-3 defense in the league (and PFF still ranked them as №6), but maybe that unit has lost a step. Whether or not, that defense has proven to be a good indicator of good things to come if you play well against it (just look at Bryce Young).
Las Vegas has the rest advantage after playing on Black Friday, and Tampa Bay is coming off an OT game. I’m taking the underdog in what could be a really fun shootout.
Pick: Las Vegas +6.5, Win: Tampa Bay
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) v. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are coming off a W, and Vegas has a lot of respect for Stafford and McVay, but this still feels like a sheep’s team in a wolf’s jersey.
Yes, they’re a respectable 2–3 against playoff teams, but there’s more to that than meets the eyes. The Rams have wins against Seattle and Minnesota (nice!), but losses to Miami, Philadelphia and Green Bay, plus an early-season loss to Detroit. That Philadelphia game wasn’t close, and neither was the primetime match against Miami. Green Bay was close, but only because of a pick-6.
All that said, I think the Rams struggle against the league’s elite. And Buffalo is the definition of that, humming along to a double-digit win campaign by Week 14, and only getting healthier. LB Matt Milano is back, and so is S Micah Hyde. That’s huge for an already impressive defense, given the talent available to them (tied for sixth in scoring defense with Pittsburgh, only №19 per PFF).
Pick: Buffalo -4.5, Win: Buffalo
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is one of the easiest teams in the league to gamble on, we just need to find the correct betting data. When spreads are too high, they are an incredible lock to never cover in those situations. When Mahomes is an underdog, he’s a fantastic pick to cover.
This is a tricky one with a low spread, but still, Mahomes is 33–19 against the spread in games when KC is favored by less than six points.
And I like KC here against a Chargers team that has brought me a lot of success this year, but I think they’ve peaked. Or they are at least in a bad stretch. They floundered against Atlanta and were bossed around by Baltimore the week before.
Now they get the division-rival Chiefs on prime time while KC has a rest advantage due to playing on Black Friday. Breakout rookie Ladd McConkey is questionable, while RB J.K. Dobbins is done for the year. KC has its own injuries, but the team is getting healthier. LAC is trending in the opposite direction.
Pick: Kansas City -3.5, Win: Kansas City
Toughies
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) v. Pittsburgh Steelers
I don’t feel great about this one, as it’s another AFC North bout with a ton of unpredictability. Cleveland could explode against this elite defense, or Jameis could sink this team with his patented mistakes. We kinda saw both of that last week against Denver.
Now, on a short week, they play Mike Tomlin, who’s 10–6 in the second divisional game after losing the first. QB Russell Wilson is playing at an elite level against single-high defensive looks, which Cleveland deploys at a top-three rate. Wilson is 5th in EPA per dropback and 3rd in PFF grade against those defensive schemes.
Tomlin is 29–21 (59%) against the spread with a rest advantage, Cleveland has lost 20 straight games in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers are getting LB Alex Highsmith back. So, with all that, I’ll lean Pittsburgh.
Pick: Pittsburgh -6.5, Win: Pittsburgh
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) v. Tennessee Titans
Jesus f***ing Christ. We’ve had jokes about this matchup for the last decade, but this is a true testament to how far we’ve come (and how little they’ve developed) from these teams hosting TNF in condiment-themed jerseys.
Mac Jones v. Will Levis. №21 defense (Tennesee) versus the №26 defense, per PFF. Two bottom-10 pass-rushing teams in terms of total sacks. Two incredibly mediocre rushing offenses with split backfields.
I don’t know, Tennessee is slightly better than Jacksonville across the board, so I’ll take Tennessee. I’ve had more faith in them all season despite the many letdowns they’ve gifted me.
Pick: Tennessee -3.5, Win: Tennessee
Chicago Bears (+4) v. San Francisco 49ers
This is incredibly difficult to evaluate. On one hand, Chicago has lost six in a row and has scored more than 20 points one time in that span. On the other hand, the last three games they played were against three playoff teams (Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota — all divisional opponents) and lost by a combined 7 points.
That’s extremely impressive, but I think the familiarity between the teams (even though Chicago is working with a rookie QB and an interim OC) did have a factor in the close games.
But there are two huge factors here in play for Chicago. Chicago is coming off extra rest after a Turkey Day loss to Detroit that came down to the very last play (or lack thereof lol), and Chicago also has new coach theory in place. Matt Eberflus is out, Shane Waldron is out and this team might explode against a wailing SF team.
For those reasons, while going against the “year-out-of-hell” 2024 team who is dealing with injuries on the field and tragedies off of it, makes me want the Bears.
Pick: Chicago +4, Win: Chicago
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) v. Dallas Cowboys
Can Dallas keep up with Cincinnati’s break-neck offense? 38 against Pittsburgh, 27 on LAC, 34 against Baltimore and 41 in a win against Vegas. It’s hard to fade Cincinnati when the offense is so hot after three devastating losses in a row.
Cincy should win this game, but Dallas is 7–3 against the spread in Cooper Rush starts. He has 4 TDs against 1 INT (and 4 total fumbles) in his last three games after stinking the place up against Philadelphia.
Micah Parsons says this team still has something to prove and wants to make a Cooper Rush-inspired run, so let’s see it. Bring us the Simpsons-themed cover.
Pick: Dallas +5.5, Win: Cincinnati