2024 Week 15 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) v. San Francisco 49ers
Both of these clubs are sub-.500 against the spread, including the Rams’ 1–5 against the spread while on the road. It’s a tough spot for LAR to have another strong performance on a short week against a division rival (a rival that has its own back against the wall). After winning 44–42 against Buffalo, a come-down game is well in play here.
The Rams reached 137 rush yards against Buffalo, keeping the ball for more than 38 minutes. But they did this on just 3.3 yards per carry, requiring 42 carries to reach that rushing total.
Isaac Gurendo is suiting up for SF, and Dre Greenlaw is returning from injury, a huge boost for the 49ers defense.
As long as Brock Purdy continues his recent tear — 6th amongst QBs in PFF grade — the 49ers have a great shot here, even with Vegas really wanting the betting public to take the Rams. The Rams are dead last in the NFL in pass EPA allowed and yards-per-attempt allowed (8.8).
Pick: San Francisco -2.5, Win: San Francisco
Homer Pick
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) v. Seattle Seahawks
HB Ken Walker is likely out again, and even though Seattle is 3–0 when Zach Charbonnet starts (he’s tied for the team lead with 7 TDs), using that formula against an elite playoff opponent probably won’t create the same results.
Green Bay gets the rest advantage against Seattle (the sixth time an opponent has a rest advantage over Seattle) and gets to take on an incredible mismatch Sunday Night, taking on Seattle’s 21st-ranked run defense with Josh Jacobs and the fourth-ranked rushing offense.
Seattle has won four in a row, but all against non-playoff teams. It took a frantic final drive to beat SF, some incredible plays and a nice choke job to beat NYJ, and Kyler Murray spotted Seattle 14 points last week with a pair of INTs. I simply think Green Bay is a better-coached, smarter and more talented team than what Seattle is used to facing.
Pick: Green Bay -2.5, Win: Green Bay
Locks
New York Jets (-3) v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ain’t this just the ugliest. But one team is anchored by Aaron Rodgers and the other is run by Mac Jones. Head coach Doug Pedersen is pretty great covering spreads while as an underdog, but this is too insurmountable.
The Jets are still showing up for games and Sauce Gardner is returning. Jacksonville is limited to rookie Brian Thoma Jr. and Tank Bigbsy as its offensive creators, with TE Evan Engram and WR Christian Kirk out for the year, and HB Travis Etienne is having a real struggle-bus season.
The Jags won last week v Tennesee, but in one of the ugliest games of the year. I’m taking the Jets.
Pick: NYJ -3, Win: NYJ
Washington Commanders (-7) v. New Orleans Saints
A playoff team off a bye against a bottom-10 team led by QB Jake Haener. Haener has not been successful in the league, despite his amazing promo photos with the team.
QB Jayden Daniels had time to rest after getting beat up over the course of 13 weeks, HB Brian Robinson Jr. is fully healthy and CB Marshon Lattimore is set to make his Commanders debut.
The Saints scored a grand total of 38 points in those three games without QB Derek Carr. The Saints lost by 24, 23 and 18 points in those games.
Pick: Washington -7, Win: Washington
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) v. Detroit Lions
The top two offenses in the league get to face off in an incredible clash for the 4 p.m. ET slate. Fourteen different Detroit Lions defenders are nursing injuries; 12 of them are on IR.
Outside of playing Houston where Josh Allen suffered an undisclosed concussion, Allen is lights out when playing in a dome. He has a 6–1 record while tallying a 15–4 TD-INT ratio.
The Rams held onto the ball for 38 minutes and ran the ball more than 40 times, but only averaged 3.3 yards per carry. Detroit is a much better rushing team and that would be their key to keeping this game away from Josh Allen’s paws.
Pick: Buffalo +2.5, Win: Buffalo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) v. Los Angeles Chargers
Tampa Bay is red hot after facing Las Vegas (№31 ranked defense, per PFF), NYG (№12) and Carolina (№32), and now has to face the fourth-ranked defense in LAC.
Tampa Bay has a porous defense, specifically its secondary, and LAC will have rooke phenom Ladd McConkey back. And if Tampa Bay relies on blitz-heavy schemes, QB Justin Herbert ranks 10th best in EPA per drop back vs the blitz this season.
Pick: LAC -3, Win: LAC
Chicago Bears (+7) v. Minnesota Vikings
Man, I hate the Bears. They broke the New Coach Theory in such a disgusting way. Now Caleb Williams, a weak offensive line and an inexperienced head coach will have to take on an 11–2 squad firing on all cylinders.
Chicago was outgained 452 yards to 162 yards against SF last week. Now Minnesota is fourth in total sacks, and will blitz the hell out of Caleb Williams.
Chicago’s lost seven straight games since starting the year 4–2. The Vikings will extend the Bears’ losing streak to eight in a row.
Pick: Minnesota -7, Win: Minnesota
Dice Throws
Dallas Cowboys (+3) v. Carolina Panthers
Dallas killed me last week when Cooper Rush (7–4 against the spread when starting) failed to cover against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Carolina has been playing well as of late, but it’s really only coming from the offensive side. While the offense, and its QB play, has stepped up mightily, the defense still stinks. Only once this season has it held an opponent under its 2024 average — Cincinnati in Week 4.
Rico Dowdle and Ceedee Lamb have been difference-makers over the last few weeks, and I like how inspired they are playing right now. According to Clev Analytics, teams are just 12–18 against the spread this century when favored following being a 13+ point underdog.
Pick: Dallas +3, Win: Dallas
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) v. Cleveland Browns
Vegas lines have placed this game in the “Vegas Zone,” meaning even they are confused by this game. Cleveland is home with rain and winds above 15 mph, while Kansas City has a +56 scoring differential — one of the worst +/- for a team 12–1 or better.
Jameis Winston will probably make a good amount of mistakes against this elite defense, and the weather could cause some real unpredictability. The Browns simply can not run the football, so a lot of the offense is created through Jameis.
This line is a little ridiculous though. Here we have a 1-loss team playing the 32nd-ranked team in terms of DVOA. Kansas City would normally be favored by 6 or 7 here, but the gambling public (us included) have been on them to not cover those types of spreads, so not it feels like I’m getting Mahomes and the Chiefs at some real value.
While it’s been six weeks since a win like that has happened for them, the Chiefs won seven of its 12 games by more than 4.5.
Pick: Kansas City -4.5, Win: Kansas City
Houston Texans (-2.5) v. Miami Dolphins
I like the Texans off a bye here, mainly because the Jets pissed away a great opportunity for a win, giving Miami time to tie, then win the game in overtime. That Jets team is cooked, and had no business being in that game against a playoff-hopeful club.
Houston has a strong pass rush, and could be a difference-maker if Miami is missing offensive tackle Terron Armstead.
Miami’s pass rush is not on Houston’s level. Miami is second-to-last in the NFL in sacks (24). With Joe Mixon and Nico Collins doing their thing, the trick to stopping Houston is pressuring C.J. Stroud.
Pick: Houston -2.5, Win: Houston
New England Patriots (+6) v. Arizona Cardinals
Both teams are coming off some recent slumps. Arizona has lost three in a row, with Kyler Murray scoring just three touchdowns against five interceptions during this three-game losing streak. New England has lost three in a row by a combined 26 points.
This spread is just off. According to PFF, Arizona and New England are neck-and-neck defensively, ranking 25th and 26th in overall grade. So offensively, Arizona must be leagues better than New England.
But I really like how Drake Maye is playing, especially compared to Kyler Murray over the last three games. I don’t think Arizona is a touchdown better than New England at this point in the year.
Pick: New England +6, Win: New England
Toughies
Baltimore Ravens (-16.5) v. New York Giants
In a late-pick decision, I flipped to take the Panthers when the point spread grew too high. It’s the same spot here with the largest spread of the year — 16.5 against the Danny Devito-led Giants.
Only 17 other teams have even laid more than 14 on the road this century and have gone 9–8 against the spread. Not great odds as it hovers around 50%, but these games are so difficult with spreads this large.
Remember when Buffalo was favored by 16.5 against Jacksonville, in Jacksonville, and lost outright? That was 2021, wild times.
Pick: NYG +16.5, Win: NYG
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) v. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are a league-worst 2–11 against the spread this year after dropping yet another winnable game against the Mac Jones-led Jags.
Teams this bad against the spread through 14 weeks are 50% against the spread the following week.
But I’m taking the Titans again! Cincy is coming off a Monday Night game (short rest) and is on the road for a second week in a row. Their season is practically over, and have yet to show they can take care of truly heinous opponents.
This tough spot, plus boasting the seventh-worst pass defense, should keep Tennessee in it, much like Dallas was despite failing to cover.
Pick: Tennessee +5.5, Win: Cincinnati
Indianapolis Colts (+5) v. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are an excellent 10–3 against the spread, which makes them scary to fade.
This is a nice spot for the Colts, but they miss on any rest advantage as both teams are coming off a bye. Indianapolis averages just north of 20 points a game when Anthony Richardson starts on the road, but Denver is one of the best defenses this team will have to face all year.
What I keep going back to was Indianapolis’ performance against Detroit. Can Indy step up against elite teams running really well? Or does their offense get continuously disrupted?
Denver is in the top 10 for turnover differential this year, while Indianapolis is barely above the bottom-10 teams. I just think this defense will make one too many plays to keep this game tight.
Pick: Denver -5, Win: Denver
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh had a nice win against division-rival Cleveland, but when teams play Cleveland and QB Jameis Winston, the Browns kind of beat themselves, giving the ball at will at times.
Pittsburgh only averaged 4.3 yards per play last week and scored 17 of its 27 points after getting the ball inside the Browns territory.
Pittsburgh is also without WR George Pickens, who’s 16th in the league in receiving yards. So that means WR Mike Williams and WR Calvin Austin have to take on CBs Quinyon Mitchell, Darius Slay and Cooper DeJean, an absolutely brutal matchup.
Pick: Philadelphia -4.5, Win: Philadelphia
Atlanta Falcons (-4) v. Las Vegas Raiders
The Desmond Ridder revenge game, here we go. Just kidding, I can’t side with a Ridder-Sincere McCormick-Jacobi Meyers trio (with TE sensation Brock Bowers).
While it’s hard to find reasons to back the fluttering Falcons, they played the Vikings evenly for the first three quarters. Atlanta outgained Minnesota 496 yards to 433 yards, earned more first downs (25–23) and had the score tied entering the fourth.
Kirk Cousins is playing for his job at this point, and needs a big bounce-back week in order to stave off the change to pivoting to rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. That game should happen here against the hapless Raiders.
Pick: Atlanta -4, Win: Atlanta