2024 Week 16 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Denver Broncos (+2.5) v. Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert reinjured his ankle last Sunday, and struggled moving the ball with his gimpy leg against a pretty porous Bucs defense. Now on a short week, he has to face a defense that continues to force turnovers, swarm QBs and suffocate and positive gains … for the most part.
If Pat Surtain shadows Ladd McConkey all game, paired with J.K. Dobbins’ long-term injury, the beat-up Herbert will have even more hurdles to overcome.
It was a competitive game the first time around, with LAC winning 23–16. This encourages me even more to take the Broncos here, because it’s hard for pretty even teams to win both games (like Atlanta over Tampa Bay).
When the road underdog comes into the divisional rematch with a win percentage of 60% or more, that team covers 65% of the time since 2000 (ex: Green Bay two weeks ago covering against Detroit). I really like Denver here. It’s not like Los Angeles is a significant home-field advantage either.
Pick: Denver +2.5, Win: Denver
Saturday Day Games
Houston Texans (+3.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs
I really want to take the Chiefs here, so the Kansas City moneyline makes the most sense for me, given the circumstances. But with this spread flying from -1.5 to +3.5, it’s just gone too far.
Patrick Mahomes is coming off a fresh high ankle sprain, is playing on a short week, and is facing a defense that boasts the third-highest sack rate with a top-10 graded pass rush, per PFF.
C.J. Stroud is 8–4 against the spread as an underdog in his career, while Kansas City is 12–22 against the spread over the last three seasons in games where they are favored by 3.5+. In that same sample size, the Chiefs are 31–3 straight up.
Pick: Houston +3.5, Win: Kansas City
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) v. Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh is making the playoffs, they’ve had their fun and created some fun moments this season, but I think we’ve seen the best of them already — unless this team is really that George Pickens dependant.
Pickens is out again, and T.J. Watt suffered a tough late-season injury. He’s playing on his hurt ankle this week, but facing Lamar Jackson on a short week with a lower leg injury can’t be fun, or effective.
It’s scary taking the Ravens and swallowing this many points in an AFC North matchup against underdog Mike Tomlin, but we’re due for a big Derrick Henry game. Lamar has been absolutely lights out, and there are just not enough weapons for Pittsburgh to keep up here, especially on the road.
Pick: Baltimore -6.5, Win: Baltimore
Homer Pick
Minnesota Vikings (-3) v. Seattle Seahawks
QB Geno Smith is suiting up despite exiting last week with a knee injury, and so is HB Kenneth Walker — even though sophomore Zach Charbonnet has been pretty amazing in Walker’s absence.
But despite the injury luck and the decent bill of health for the Seahawks, there’s not a lot of reason to back them against this 12-win Vikings squad. This game feels a lot like last week’s contest against the Packers, where they have to take on a superior team that can take advantage of Seattle’s fatal flaws.
Last week, it was Josh Jacobs owning the first half. This week, it’s DC Brian Flores’ intense pass rush swarming an easily overwhelmed offensive line. There are some nice pieces on this offense line, and they’re playing better than in the first half of the season, but they can still be exposed by relentless blitz schemes.
Pick: Minnesota -3, Win: Minnesota
Locks
New York Giants (+8.5) v. Atlanta Falcons
Drew Lock is the QB I favor the most among the chaotic Giants herd, but that still isn’t enough to make me think Michael Penix Jr. can’t deliver in this spot here. The Giants are beat up defensively, and this team is bottoming out dramatically, no matter who is slinging passes under center.
It also helps that Atlanta has both CB A.J. Terrell and S Jessie Bates to shadow NY’s only receiving threat — WR Malik Nabers.
We are talking the smallest of sample sizes here, but Michael Penix Jr. (on six NFL downs + one preseason game) is the second-highest graded QB in the league, per PFF, just 0.5 points behind Lamar Jackson, 0.3 points ahead of Joe Burrow and 1.0 point ahead of likely NFL MVP Josh Allen.
And Atlanta should be pretty fired up with a young mobile gunslinger igniting this stagnant offense. I’m not loving Raheem Morris’ return to head coaching so far, but I think this offense could be pretty explosive if Penix Jr. can deliver.
Pick: Atlanta -8.5, Win: Atlanta
New England Patriots (+14) V. Buffalo Bills
I keep taking the Patriots to cover these late-season games, and I’m wrong nearly every time. This team sucks, and at this point, they only want to protect rookie QB Drake Maye from a Joe Burrow-type injury and snag the highest pick they can. There’s even talk of Maye scrambling less over these final games, per multiple reporters close to the team on Twitter.
New England has also had the second-easiest schedule in the league, in terms of opposing teams’ net success rate and EPA. Now they have to face the Bills, a team so red-hot they controlled a game against the Lions wire-to-wire. There’s a reality where Buffalo is locked into the second seed in the AFC — Kansas City won Saturday and is 14–1, whereas both Pittsburgh (10–5) and Houston (9–6) lost — but I don’t think they slow down just yet in Week 6.
Pick: Buffalo -14, Win: Buffalo
Cleveland Browns (-7.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals
I’m not spending too much time on this one as it’s pretty simple: The trend in these locks this week is to fade bad teams and bad QBs. This matchup, it’s Joe Burrow playing at an unprecedented level given his team’s standing against Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR). DTR has a 0–3 TD-INT ratio this year and a 14.6 passer rating.
The Bengals’ defense is awful, but not awful enough to fold against DTR. He is a turnover machine with a career 4.8% INT ratio (among the highest of any active QB) and the Browns have no rushing attack to at least add change-of-pace options to DTR throws.
DTR is 67th graded out of 69 qualifying QBs this year in PFF grade. Additionally, Kevin Stefanski is only 10–18 against the spread when playing division rivals, per Clev Analytics.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati is still in the playoff hunt following Denver’s loss on Thursday, and they’re going to play like hell to stay alive. Ride the Bengals’ late-season hot streak.
Pick: Cincinnati -7.5, Win: Cincinnati
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) v. Washington Commanders
Yes, we all got absolutely jipped in that Washington v. New Orleans game when the refs decided a football game’s length should be 60:00:04 for kicks, but it’s still a bad omen that the combination of Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler was able to keep that game as close as it was.
The Eagles’ stars are all worn down with injuries, but this spread is awfully low for teams seismically apart. Philadelphia is still vying for the NFC’s top seed, while Washington is merely trying to fend off any teams from the final Wild Card spot.
I cite PFF here a lot, mainly because I like that they can evaluate certain things I have a hard time judging and equating outside of the “eye test.” And PFF LOVES the Eagles’ defense (ranking them №1 by 9.4 points, the same difference between the second-ranked defense and the 15th). You know which defense PFF hates? Washington’s (30th ranked). The eye test backs this up to some degree, as WR Terry Mclaurin only caught one ball for 10 yards against the Eagles’ revamped secondary. And this isn’t the same Jayden Daniels that we saw in the first half of the season. Rookie-year fatigue and a mid-season injury have altered some of his dynamic abilities.
We saw this game with a 26–18 finish nearly a month ago. I’ll take the sweep for the Eagles here.
Pick: Philadelphia -3.5, Win: Philadelphia
San Francisco 49ers (-2) v. Miami Dolphins
Both teams are pretty much out of playoff contention, but Miami feels like the team closer to a sudden implosion between the two clubs at this very moment.
WR Jaylen Waddle is out for this game, Tyreek Hill is tweeting about his frustration with the team’s offense and overall success and OBJ was cut. It’s a situation that is only getting worse, and Tua’s 24th-graded QB play this season isn’t helping matters. Additionally, his offensive line is beat up once again, especially at the tackles, and the defense is looking porous.
The 49ers don’t look inspiring at this stage in their “year-out-of-hell” season, but at least they have a rest advantage in this contest. HC Kyle Shanahan should be able to control this game and keep Miami out of reach with his scheme.
In the last three weeks, Miami has only had the lead in a game for 25 minutes, and that all came against the win in OT against the Jets. They never had a lead against Green Bay or Houston.
Pick: San Francisco -2, Win: San Francisco
Dice Throws
Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) v. Carolina Panthers
Fading Carolina last week paid massive dividends against a Dallas team that is really trying to finish strong with that Jerry Jones culture dripping all over them, but now they’re a near-touchdown underdog at home against this Arizona team?
Arizona has the 8th-worst graded defense per PFF’s analytics, and is 22nd in defensive EPA. Bryce Young has looked pretty good against mediocre (and even some good) defenses over the last month and change. There’s no reason he, with WR Adam Thielen and RB Chuba Hubbard, should struggle too much with this defense.
On top of it all, Arizona is flying out east and is playing outdoors. Kyler Murray has a decent track record in tough weather due to his mobility, and this team’s rushing attack should feast against Carolina’s worst-ranked run defense, but it is going to be 35 degrees and windy/rainy. When he heard that, even he said “shit” in front of reporters with a laugh.
Even if Arizona pummels the Panthers to the ground through James Conner and Kyler Murray’s legs, Carolina can always backdoor cover against Arizona’s defense.
Pick: Carolina +5.5, Win: Arizona
Detroit Lions (-6.5) v. Chicago Bears
The Bears’ offense has been absolutely dreadful over the last two games (coincidentally right after HC Matt Eberflus was fired), mustering a measly 25 combined points against San Francisco and Minnesota. I understand those are arguably stronger defenses than what Detroit can afford to roll out there this Sunday given their injury report, but they look pathetic.
Detroit can cover this game if the line stands as under a full TD. David Montgomery is out for an extended period of time, but I fully expect Jahmyr Gibbs to have a couple of ridiculous performances to make up for the loss.
Pick: Detroit -6.5, Win: Detroit
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) v. Dallas Cowboys
Wow, what a game from the Bucs last week. That was a wild performance, and another testament to Baker Mayfield’s incredible and resilient season despite the team’s shortcomings and injuries.
Dallas is clearly not going away anytime soon, and Cooper Rush is now 8–4 covering games as a starter with his safe approach and long drives, but the shootout potential in a Tampa Bay game with Baker Mayfield could keep this game out of reach. (See Cincinnati v. Dallas in Week 14).
Rookie RB Bucky Irving is not only active but completely off the injury report, Mayfield is building a connection with rookie WR Jalen McMillan over the last couple of games to balance out WR Mike Evans’ workload, and the team’s defense should do enough to hold the Cowboys at bay.
Dallas is 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (136.1), while the Buccaneers are tied for fourth in the league in rushing yards (144.4), while producing said volume on 5.2 yards per carry (2nd highest in the league). This team’s newfound rush attack with Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker will do more than enough to cover this spread.
Also, Dallas is dead last in red-zone percentage (73.3%) on defense.
Pick: Tampa Bay -3.5, Win: Tampa Bay
Toughies
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) v. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are still hanging onto the hope of a playoff spot by a thread as we arrive at Week 16, which is more than anything Tennessee can say.
In this instance, it’ll be wise to take the playoff-hungry team in a divisional matchup that’s due for a plethora of dumb mistakes and turnovers on both ends, and wiser still to avoid this game altogether.
Will Levis has 17 of Tennessee’s league-worst 29 turnovers, so subtracting those from Mason Rudolph’s extremely safe game-manager-style play should give Tennessee a fair shot at keeping this game close, alongside Tennessee’s above-average defense.
But, Indianapolis’ own defense has drastically improved, ranking 6th in EPA since Week 8. It’s a defense that can be exploited by an above-average QB, but Mason Rudolph is not that, unfortunately.
Also, the Titans’ starting kicker is missing this game. When the spread is 3 or less, that can easily cost a team multiple points.
Pick: Indianapolis -3.5, Win: Indianapolis
Los Angeles Rams (-3) v. New York Jets
This screams Rams, right? A playoff team only laying a FG against a team that is bloated with drama and a toxic culture seems like a layup by Week 16.
But New York has been cruising on offense, and is telling the league they are not going to lay down and finish the season with a whimper. Last five games, the offense was nearly top-10 in EPA (11th) and averaged 27 points per game. The Rams have some nice young pieces to be excited about in the long term, but this defense is nothing if pedestrian.
Now, let’s talk about this team traveling cross country to play in New York outside in December. The Rams are 4–3 on the road (winning four in a row), but those wins were against Seattle, New England, New Orleans and San Francisco — when they scored just 12 points. On the road, this team averages less than 20 points per game.
Pick: New York +3, Win: New York
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) v. Las Vegas Raiders
I was listening to The Ringer and I liked that they came up with the conclusion that Mac Jones is the sassiest QB in the league. It’s 100% true, and I saw some swagger out of him last week in a 32–25 loss to the New York Jets.
This damn Jags team keeps sticking around. With Trevor Lawrence going down twice late (the second time in terrifying fashion), everyone thought they would pack it in, classic Jags. But this team lost to Houston by 3, beat Tennessee 10–6 and had a weird six-win shootout against the Jets.
But Aidan O’Connell is back, and that makes the difference between a Raiders loss and a Raiders cover as a favorite. He’s been able to compete and hang around against much better teams, and could have a nice game against the third-worst coverage team as long as he gets the ball in Brock Bowers’ hands enough times.
Also for bottom-feeding teams (win losses of sub-33%) facing off in the final month of the season, home favorites cover the spread 57% of the time.
Pick: Las Vegas -1.5, Win: Las Vegas
New Orleans Saints (+13.5) v. Green Bay Packers
It feels like maybe Spencer Rattler could cover this spread after his performance against Washington (10–21 passing for 135 yards and 1 TD), but Green Bay also covered this spread against Geno Smith and the playoff-hopeful Hawks just last week.
The Saints’ starting roster wasn’t anything special on Week 1, but now, 15 weeks later, it’s unreal to see. Alongside the aforementioned Rattler, the team is relying on a rookie lineman, five active WRs with the heavy lifting coming from Marques Valdes-Scantling and Cedric Wilson Jr. and Kendre Miller as the team’s running back. It’s also supposed to be 30 degrees in Lambeau Monday night.
There is no Derek Carr, no Alvin Kamara, no Chris Ovale, no Rashid Shaheed, no Taysom Hill and no Ryan Ramcyzk. So it’s hard to take this team even as a near two-touchdown underdog.
Pick: Green Bay -13.5, Win: Green Bay