2024 Week 17 NFL Picks
Christmas Games
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) v. Pittsburgh Steelers
The two best active coaches in tight, chaotic, one-score games are facing off on one of our nation’s biggest holidays. I hope this game delivers, as the Pittsburgh Steelers have the best win % in one-score games (.647) since 2013 while Kansas City is second in the league (.636).
11 of Kansas City’s 14 wins have been by one score this season, while Pittsburgh is 6–3 in one-score games. But when it comes down to this matchup, Mahomes favored by less than 3 is too enticing to ignore.
The Chiefs are infamous at not covering spreads once it bleeds to more than 3, but this is a great situation for them to cover. Are they really going to let us down on Christmas during this huge special event for the NFL that will surely piss off other rival professional sports leagues? Fat chance.
Tomlin and Reid are knotted up at 5–5 lifetime, but, including the playoffs, the Chiefs have won all three meetings against the Steelers since Mahomes became their starting quarterback in 2018. Even with Pickens returning, I’m riding with KC.
Pick: Kansas City -2.5, Win: Kansas City
Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) v. Houston Texans
Houston is a solid football team, if unspectacular. They have a win over Buffalo (in a game where Josh Allen was concussed), but that’s about it. With a schedule that had had just five current playoff teams this year, Houston’s 1–4 record in those games leaves a lot to be desired.
Especially when playing the Baltimore Ravens. The two things Houston feels most mediocre at, per PFF grades, are blocking for the run and stopping the run. This will prove to be a tough matchup against Derrick Henry (who just exploded last week after a quick dry spell) and the №1 run defense in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed.
Baltimore’s defense as a whole has improved as of late. The secondary is allowing just slightly more than 180 yards per game over the last five weeks, and has allowed only seven TDs to QBs in that span. With both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell lost for the season, on top of Joe Mixon having a tough matchup, there just might not be enough offensive firepower to keep up with the Ravens.
Mixon also has just 80 rush yards in his last two games combined. Houston will need more from him to keep pace.
Pick: Baltimore -5.5, Win: Baltimore
Homer Pick x Thursday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) v. Chicago Bears
The Bears did right by us last week by laying an egg against the Detroit Lions last week, losing 34–17. Now the Bears have averaged just 14 points per game over the last three weeks since Head Coach Matt Eberflus was canned. Remember when people thought this was going to be a high-powered offense?
The Seahawks have played two of the toughest NFC opponents in the last two weeks, and after getting killed by Green Bay on primetime, they actually hung around and gave Minnesota a good fight. With the Hawks on the outside looking in for the playoffs, their motivation over these next two weeks is incalculable compared to Chicago, whose season has been over since November.
We’re going off a small sample size, but Mike Macdonald’s defense has a nice track record against rookie QBs. His defense faced C.J. Stroud twice last year, allowing 19 combined points. His defense lost to Indianapolis last year, but that was with Gardner Minshew under center. This year, the Seahawks took care of business against Bo Nix, albeit in his professional debut.
Ken Walker is likely to miss the game for the Hawks, but the team is 3–1 in his absence while his backup, Zach Charbonnet, leads the team in total TDs…QB excluded, obviously.
Chicago is the second-worst team in terms of third-down conversion rate, and while Seattle is only in the middle amongst third-down defense (15th in the league), the defense is amongst the league leaders in three-and-outs. I think this defense gives Caleb Williams fits amidst a spiraling season.
Pick: Seattle -3.5, Win: Seattle
Saturday Games
Los Angeles Chargers (-4) v. New England Patriots
New England put up an amazing fight against the sleep-walking Bills last week, making them a hard team to predict with a blossoming rookie QB.
But the draft is in sight and protecting Drake Maye is more important to this team than having him come up with heroic plays against this Chargers defense.
To put it simply, per Clev Analytics, favorites off extra rest facing a team off short rest Week 15 on cover at a 63% clip over the last 24 seasons. And look at the matchups. On a short week, Justin Herbert had more than 300 yards and 2 TDs against an elite defense. Now, on extra rest, he gets to take on a bottom-10 ranking defense, per PFF.
Pick: LAC -4, Win: LAC
Denver Broncos (+3.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals
Denver burned me big last week after losing an 11-point lead against the Chargers last week, but the team was coming off of covering the spread for four games in a row before that disappointing performance.
Now, on extra rest, they take on a Bengals team that just loves to find ways to lose, mostly thanks to its porous defense. There’s a world where DE Trey Hendrickson wreaks havoc against rookie QB Bo Nix while QB Joe Burrow lights it up once again, but Denver’s defense remains elite — ranking third in terms of PFF grades.
Denver’s defense leads the league in sacks (51) while simultaneously ranking second in pressure rate. And they have CB Pat Surtain in the lineup — one of the few corners that can disrupt WR Ja’Marr Chase’s game. Expect an All-Pro nod for Surtain soon.
As long as Denver can keep its high-scoring pace up in this contest (Broncos are averaging more than 33 points a game over the last five weeks) while facing the 19th-ranked defense per PFF, I’ll happily take the points here.
Pick: Denver +3.5, Win: Denver
Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) v. Los Angeles Rams
Remember when the Cardinals beat the Rams 41–10 in Week 2? Putting up 489 yards of offense in the process? Wild times because now, 15 weeks later, the Cardinals are eliminated and the Rams are in the driver's seat for the division title.
Of course, the Rams did not have WR Puka Nacua and multiple offensive linemen, plus WR Cooper Kupp, suffered injuries in that game.
There’s a question of effort with the Cardinals now that they are eliminated, but it is a divisional game and QB Kyler Murray excels against the spread as an underdog. Murray has a 67% cover rate against the spread when he’s an underdog of 3 or more in his career, including a 4–1 record against the spread this season as an underdog of 3 or more.
What scares me is the Rams' dedication to the run game (RB Kyren Williams has 23+ carries in three straight games) against Arizona, which has the 11th-worst run defense in terms of rushing yards allowed. That and we’re due for a strong Matt Stafford game. He has less than 300 yards and 1 TD in the last two games combined.
Stafford is averaging 252 passing yards per game in nine contests in domes this year and Arizona is last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate. Arizona also has the second-worst pass-rush grade in the league, per PFF.
With the improved defense from LAR, dedication to the run and a defense that Stafford can exploit, all alongside a playoff spot on the line and a divisional rematch where they were previously embarrassed, a lot of factors are pointing to the Rams here, despite the large point spread.
Pick: LAR -6.5, Win: LAR
Locks
Miami Dolphins (-6.5) v. Cleveland Browns
It’s pretty incredible getting a team with its back against the wall for a playoff spot as a less-than-a-TD favorite against this team. Woof, Cleveland is bad, and they’re owning it now.
To anyone putting actual money on QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, you either know something I don’t or are much braver than I. He has simply put up some of the worst stats for a starting QB in his spot starts over the first two years of his career. Like, Nathan Peterman bad. DTR has a 0–5 TD-INT ratio this season, in addition to six sacks, two fumbles and a 30.1 passer rating 9he’s attempted 68 passes this season across five games).
For reference, Peterman has a career 4–13 TD-INT ratio and a 39.4 passer rating. DTR has a slightly higher passer rating (43.2) with his career 1–9 TD-INT ratio. How can you back this guy, especially on such a lousy team?
Additionally, LB Jordyn Brooks (a former Seahawk) is having a great season for the Dolphins, becoming the only player to record 100+ tackles, 10+ tackles for loss, five-plus passes defended and three-plus sacks this season. This defense has some pieces that can absolutely cause fits for the opposing dysfunctional offense.
Pick: Miami -6.5, Win: Miami
Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) v. Philadelphia Eagles
QB Cooper Rush and his 9–4 record against the spread is an underdog by more than a TD against QB Kenny Pickett?? Huh? Dallas has been playing well, winning four of its last five (including wins against Tampa Bay and Washington).
Rush is 9–4 as a starter and never turns the ball over (1.1 INT% this season). Yes, Ceedee Lamb has been shut down for the year, and Saquon Barkley wants that rushing record and could explode for 150+ rushing yards, but all I need is a cover. And this Eagles team can’t cover this spread without QB Jalen Hurts.
For Philly’s 12 wins this season, they’ve only covered 7.5 for half those games. One of those games was a resounding 34–6 win against a Cooper Rush-led Cowboys team, but that was early in his tenure filling in for QB Dak Prescott. The Cowboys will want revenge and will not lay down for this arch-rival, and Rush has a 10–2 TD-INT ratio since that dud of a performance.
Pick: Dallas +7.5, Win: Philadelphia
Detroit Lions (-3.5) v. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ “year out of hell” is finally over after being eliminated by QB Tua Tagovailoa and the Fins last week. Now they have to face one of the best teams in the league, injuries be damned.
San Francisco has now lost six of their last seven games, and have also failed to cover the spread in each of those defeats, including failing to cover by nine or more points in five of those six losses. It simply hasn’t been their year, and playing Detroit will feel no different.
Detroit’s two losses this season have come against two top-five scoring teams this season. It takes a massive shootout to beat this squad, and the 49ers are simply not up for it.
LT Trent Williams is done for the year, the team is down to its fourth-string RB and Brock Purdy has put up a couple of bad starts in a row now. Gimme the Lions.
Pick: Detroit -3.5, Win: Detroit
Dice Throws
New York Jets (+9.5) v. Buffalo Bills
Did you know the Jets are 30th in the league in defensive EPA since Week 7 this season? That’s in part due to losing defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh, and also partially due to LB C.J. Mosley on IR alongside multiple other defensive injuries. Five more starters, including All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner, are questionable for this contest against the Bills.
The Bills absolutely phoned the last game in, but QB Josh Allen and company tend to have bounce-back weeks in big ways instead of maintaining a slump. In his MVP-hopeful season, I expect a big offensive performance from him and James Cook after last week’s struggles.
Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in eight straight contests before last week’s game against the Patriots. I expect a double-digit win here.
Pick: Buffalo -9.5, Win: Buffalo
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) v. New York Giants
As of this writing, we still don’t know who’s even suiting up at quarterback for the Colts, but does it matter? It won’t be Drew Lock, the Giants’ starting quarterback. Lock is last among 44 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA this season, and by a lot. He has not been effective, and this team wants the highest pick possible for a new quarterback.
Could Indy blow this with lots of turnovers and mistakes? It’s always the risk with QB Anthony Richardson, but the Giants happen to be 28th in QB rush yards allowed, another tough blow in this matchup for the G-Men. A-Rich has had 45 rushing yards in six of his last seven games, finally being unleashed as a two-way player in HC Shane Steichen’s scheme.
That and the Colts’ defense has been solid, if not just plain good, against mediocre/bad teams…and the Giants are bad, real bad.
Pick: Indianapolis -7.5, Win: Indianapolis
Carolina Panthers (+8) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina is coming off an incredible overtime win, eliminating another NFC foe from the playoffs in the process. Tampa Bay did not have nearly as much fun of a week, blowing a game to Dallas through multiple turnovers despite outgaining the Cowboys in success rate per play by a wide margin.
Tampa Bay beats up on bad squads (four wins of 15 points or more as a favorite this season), and they have the tools to decimate this porous defense. Rookie RB Bucky Irving and RB Rachaad White should feast on this run defense. Carolina is dead last in rushing yards allowed, and the gap between them and the next-worst run-defense squad is equivalent to the gap between the 31st-ranked team and the 11th-best team. Holy crap.
Tampa Bay is still very much alive in the playoff race, and they’ll show it this week. Sorry QB Bryce Young and your resurgent sophomore campaign.
Pick: Tampa Bay -8, Win: Tampa Bay
Toughies
Tennessee Titans (+1) v. Jacksonville Jaguars
I don’t want to spend too much time on this game for obvious reasons. Didn’t these two teams just play? Oh yes, it was a 10–6 victory for QB Mac Jones and the Jags.
I think picking a split here is safe, but both teams are so dastardly awful. There’s not an offensive team stat that either team cracks the top 20 in the league. Total yards, passing, rushing, scoring, third-down %, etc. Tennessee has a slight advantage in all these metrics, but it’s kind of like asking which is the smartest horse here, why bother?
Tennessee’s defense remains the standout unit from either squad, and they have some game film on Mac Jones to disrupt his play, unlike in their first matchup. It’s going to come down to crazy fluky special teams plays (or mistakes) and dumb turnovers, but let’s side with these Titans once again, shall we?
Pick: Tennessee +1, Win: Tennessee
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) v. Minnesota Vikings
I think Green Bay is the slightly more popular pick due to the trust in its QB and for throwing down a couple of absolutely dominant performances on primetime. Green Bay has scored 30+ in five straight games, and has a margin of victory of 17.8 points. The one loss? A three-point loss to Detroit.
But Minnesota took Green Bay to school in the first matchup. Jordan Love coughed up three of the team’s four turnovers. The game got close due to a frenetic 22-point fourth quarter from the Packers, but at one point, the game was 28–7.
Interestingly enough, that game only had one sack from the Vikings’ defense. The team is fifth in sacks per game, but over the last few weeks, the pass rush hasn’t been as lethal. Minnesota has nine sacks over the last five games, and that includes facing QB Geno Smith and the Seahawks’ bottom-10 offensive line, QB Caleb Williams (who’s taken 67 sacks this season) and the Bears twice and the state that is Kirk Cousins. If Jordan Love doesn’t feel the intense pass rush this team had in the first half of the season, he might go nuclear.
Love has 8 TDs against 0 INTs over the last five games, and took just three sacks in that same span. He’s been lethal, and so has RB Josh Jacobs.
Green Bay is 0–4 against Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia this season. That fails to reach 0–5 this weekend.
Pick: Green Bay +1.5, Win: Green Bay
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) v. New Orleans Saints
It’s kind of wild that this spread is just 1.5. Vegas is coming off a win while New Orleans and its active roster of backups got shut out on primetime.
We mentioned last week the lack of weapons the Saints have. There is no Derek Carr, no Alvin Kamara, no Chris Ovale, no Rashid Shaheed, no Taysom Hill and no Ryan Ramcyzk, among others. Is the Raiders defense all that intimidating? No, but the Raiders at least have some options to rely on offensively.
And, among the bad teams and all the bad QBs for them, Aidan O’Connell stands out as one of the more competent guys. He doesn’t turn the ball over, can handle a heavy passing volume and made a couple of great plays to take down the Jags last week.
Pick: Las Vegas -1.5, Win: Las Vegas
Atlanta Falcons (+4) v. Washington Commanders
Washington is back baby! It looked like this team had overperformed, got a lil beat up and were being solved in the second half of the season to some degree. But Washington pulled off another incredible victory after rookie QB Jayden Daniels delivered another Herculean performance.
In a battle of rookies, I’m taking the rookie who’s going to steal the ROY trophy from TE Brock Bowers, not the guy who’s played just one professional game against the New York Giants (as much as I like QB Michael Penix Jr. long term).
Daniels leads all QBs in scramble yards and is third in designed run rate, and he’s using those legs once again, averaging nearly 75 rush yards a game over the last two weeks.
There’s reportedly going to be some harsh weather, which makes me like the running, dual-threat QB more here. Atlanta scored two pick-6s last week, something that won’t happen when facing Daniels.
Pick: Washington -4, Win: Washington