2024 Wildcard Weekend NFL Picks
Saturday Playoff Games
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) v. Houston Texans
The Chargers have made their relatively easy schedule work for them, finishing 11–6 despite going just 2–5 against playoff teams. Four of those games came within their division, and the two wins? Just Denver twice.
But it's hard to back Houston here. That team is just 1–5 against playoff teams, and mustered a 10–7 record despite playing in the AFC South (15 combined wins between Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee). Injuries have plagued this team, especially on offense, but if I’m picking the bigger fraud in this matchup, it's definitely Houston.
The Chargers boast a top-6 defense per PFF and held teams to the lowest points per game in the league in 2024. Houston meanwhile ranks just 17th in offensive PFF grade, and scored the 19th-most points in the league.
QB C.J. Stroud is throwing for just 6.6 yards per attempt and a 59.9% completion rate while ranking fourth-last in adjusted EPA per play among the 33 QBs with at least 200 plays since Week 7, per Covers.com. It doesn’t help that the Texans rank 22nd in pass-block win rate and 19th in PFF pass-block grade (31st in run-block win rate and 27th in PFF run-block grade). What has this resulted in? Houston allowing the third-most sacks (54) in the league.
But, there are some troubling signs for the Chargers here. Home dogs cover at at 60% rate in the playoffs, and the Chargers have a short week with this matchup. The Chargers are also playing a third-straight road game.
Pick: LAC -3, Win: LAC
Pittsburgh Steelers (+10) v. Baltimore Ravens
I loathe picking a team just to cover when it comes to the playoffs, but we’re talking Mike Tomlin here. Now here’s a coach that covers the spread 72% of the time as an underdog against divisional opponents since 2007. That includes a 13–3–2 against-the-spread mark as an underdog against the Ravens.
There’s always blowout potential with the Ravens, but no Zay Flowers does limit this offense a smidge. Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely and Rashod Bateman will have to do the heavy lifting in the team’s passing attack.
But this Pittsburgh team lost to Baltimore 34–17 just three weeks ago, and I’m confident the winner will repeat here. It’s just by how much.
The Steelers can’t score. Russ and co. have failed to reach 18 points for five consecutive weeks heading into this matchup. While a similar game to the 19–17 Bengals win over Pittsburgh last week is certainly in play under Tomlin, I think Lamar is too licked in to have a lukewarm performance to kick off the playoffs.
Pick: Baltimore -10, Win: Baltimore
Sunday Playoff Games
Denver Broncos (+8.5) v. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo leads the league in turnover differential (+24) this season, and gets to face a rookie QB at home. Denver ranks 12th among the 14 playoff teams in turnovers, so not a bad matchup for the Bills’ defense.
If I had to predict, I think this game is going to be similar to the Bills facing New England in Round 1 when Mac Jones was a rookie. That game ended 47–17. In fact, the Buffalo Bills cleared a double-digit spread last year in Round 1 of the playoffs too, beating Pittsburgh 34–17. Buffalo also has seven double-digit wins this season.
There are some big spreads to swallow this week, but don’t be scared. As great of a season Denver had, they were 1–7 against teams .500 or better (3–5 against the spread).
Pick: Buffalo -8.5, Win: Buffalo
Green Bay Packers (+5) v. Philadelphia Eagles
These teams played each other in Week 1 on foreign soil, with the Eagles winning 34–29. Now the line is exactly that — 5.
The Eagles now get to host the Packers (who are 5–3 on the road) and their defense, with a pair of elite blossoming corners in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, has steadily claimed a spot amongst the league’s elite. Philadelphia led the NFL in defensive EPA and success rate since Oct. 1st.
Green Bay has been great this year, but they simply haven’t been able to hang with the teams slightly superior to them. 11–6 on the season, but the Pack is 10–1 against non-NFC North teams, getting swept by both Detroit and Minnesota. Claiming the 7th seed in the NFC playoffs, Green Bay is 1–5 (losses to GB, DET and PHI) against the six other playoff teams (defeating the Rams 24–19 with WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nucua both out).
Simply put, the Packers have been the come-up short squad this year. And with no Christian Watson, Jordan Love’s passing weapons become all the more inconsistent. I expect Josh Jacobs to have a nice game (8th in time of possession), but they’re facing Saquon Barkley and the Eagles (1st in the league in time of possession).
The Packers’ six losses have come by a combined 24 points this season, with only one loss of more than 5 points. But everywhere the Packers have a strength, the Eagles outmatch them. And the Eagles’ №1 ranked defense per PFF overall grade metrics is going to be a headache to face for the mistake-prone (at times) Jordan Love.
Pick: Philadelphia -5, Win: Philadelphia
Washington Commanders (+3) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’ve loved Baker Mayfield’s play this year (1st in third-down conversion percentage this year, with Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Joe Burrow rounding out the top 5), and I believe he deserves some MVP votes, but his turnovers might prove costly against playoff squads.
Mayfield was second in total TDs among QBs this year, but he threw 16 INTs and fumbled an additional 13 times (2 turned into TOs). That’s a low fumble-to-turnover conversion rate, but his 18 TOs is a league-high. He’s also taken the 10th-most sacks this year as well.
But can this Washington Commanders defense take advantage? It’s the worst-ranked defense among the playoff teams, per PFF, but Tampa Bay’s has been far from excellent as well, with plenty of injuries among its secondary staring down questionable tags.
Rookie QBs are 0–5 in playoff debuts since 2010, but a respectable 2–3 against the spread. And Jayden Daniels has been unbelievable all season, but he’s now attempted 30+ passes in eight of his last nine games, while rushing for 65+ yards in four of his last five games. This whole offense is centered on Daniels, and rookies don’t fare well in the playoffs — CJ Stroud excluded. As his passing attempts increased, so did his TOs. Seven of his nine INTs on the season have come in his last nine games.
But Tampa Bay overall has been wildly inconsistent. They struggled against the Spencer Rattler-led Saints in a win-or-go-home scenario, and lost to a Cooper Rush-led Cowboys team on primetime. In between those games was a 34-point win over Carolina. The game before the Cowboys loss? A 23-point win over the Chargers.
If Tampa Bay can deliver on offense — Baker Mayfield slicing up a 22nd-ranked defense per EPA and Bucky Irving feasting on a rushing defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry — I think they can outpace any Jayden Daniels heroics.
Pick: Tampa Bay -3, Win: Tampa Bay
Monday Playoff Games
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) v. Los Angeles Rams
One of the more under-reported stories from Week 18 was the Rams punting on that game, even though a win could have improved their seeding. With a win, the Super Bowl-winning duo of HC Sean McVay and QB Matthew Stafford would be facing the rookie QB Jayden Daniels (rookie QBs are 0–5 in playoff debuts since 2010). Now, they draw the 14-win Vikings.
Why not try? It’s because this team is old and beat up, and clearly needed the rest. That’s not a great sign when playing such a physical team anchored by DC Brian Flores’ defense.
And I think a lot of people are off the scent of the Vikings following the lackluster 31–9 loss to Detroit. It was a weird game and closer than the score indicated. WR Justin Jefferson had a couple unusual drops, QB Sam Danold didn’t have it after a couple drives dried up in the red zone, and Flores’ defense couldn’t keep RB Jahmyr Gibbs in check.
But teams “embarrassed” like that in primetime always bounce back in big ways. And this is a great matchup for them. One of the most blitz-heavy squads in the league against Statue Stafford? The Rams’ 23rd-ranked secondary, per PFF, facing Jefferson and Jordan Addison? Kyren Williams against a top-5 run defense? (Williams has fared respectably against top-10 defenses — 77 yards, 4.3 ypc, 3 TDs in three games).
And for any concerns regarding Sam Darnold, the Rams blitz at a bottom-10 rate in the league, and run a ton of zone, in heavy contrast to the Lions’ man-to-man defensive scheme last week. Jefferson, Addison and Hockenson will help splinter any zone coverages for Darnold.
Pick: Minnesota -1.5, Win: Minnesota