2023 Week 4 NFL Picks
With a 27–18–3 start on picks through 3 weeks, let’s take what we’ve learned from this weird NFL season and get back on track after a pair of .500 weeks.
Thursday Night Football
Detroit Lions (-2.5) v. Green Bay Packers
It might have taken a semi-significant Derek Carr shoulder injury to push Green Bay out on top of the Saints, but this is a different Packers team Thursday. Aaron Jones and his 11.5 yards per touch will be joined by deep-threat wide receiver Christian Watson to give this offense a much-needed boost. David Bakhtiari has been moved to IR, which is unfortunate, but Green Bay is still facing a bottom-10 pass-rushing unit this week.
Here’s what’s strange about Detroit. Detroit fields a top-five offensive line no doubt and has a slew of talented running backs to coordinate a complex running scheme, but the team ranks 26th in runs that go for 0 or fewer yards. Goff is also throwing for the highest INT % of his Detroit tenure…even if it’s still less than 2%.
Detroit has become a very strong run defense, but Aaron Jones can hurt this team in the flat while Jordan Love looks to uncork his very efficient and consistent downfield throws.
Pick: Green Bay +2.5, Win: Green Bay
Week 4 Locks
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) v Houston Texans
The betting world is all-in on Houston’s hot start with rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. But six linemen are out for this contest for Houston, including four on IR, and a seventh (Michael Deiter) is questionable.
This is a terrible matchup for two fresh-faced footballers, and while Pittsburgh’s secondary has been surgically cut through by some of the league’s elite WRs, I’m drawing the line here. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are going to have a field day.
Pick: Pittsburgh -3, Win: Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) v. New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay came crashing down to Earth with a dreaded primetime loss to the reigning NFC Champs after a nice, yet short, 2–0 start. But I think this Buccaneers team has more fight left against flawed teams, and the Saints are flawed.
Jameis Winston will be the quarterback. Dennis Allen is the head coach. The offense was 25th-ranked in scoring with Derek Carr. Now Jameis Winston is in charge? He only started three games over Andy Dalton last year and threw 2 TDs to 5 INTs in his last two starts for a passer rating of 66.2.
Jameis Winston has started just 10 games in the last FOUR years. I’m fading him, even with Alvin Kamara returning because he isn’t a check-down quarterback anyway.
Pick: Tampa Bay +3.5, Win: Tampa Bay
New England Patriots (+6.5) v. Dallas Cowboys
Good teams that stink up the previous week always bounce back. And the Dallas Cowboys are a good team. A team coming off of a loss when they were a double-digit favorite has covered at a 56% clip the ensuing week.
And this Patriots team is just not it. The defense is good and will rustle some of Dak’s feathers, but the offensive line is the 7th worst as pass blocking and 9th worst at run blocking. Dallas, hot off an embarrassing loss, heads home to face this porous line? With Mac Jones under center? I like this spot for Dallas, especially considering Mac’s ONE comeback performance in his career so far. I’m not worried about a late- 4th-quarter back-door cover when fading the Pats.
Mac is now 2–11 ATS and 1–10 straight up as an underdog in his career.
Pick: Dallas -6.5, Win: Dallas
Week 4 Dice Throws
Los Angeles Rams (-1) v. Indianapolis Colts
The Rams are one of the strangest teams to predict so far this year. There’s just enough top-shelf talent for head coach Sean McVay to milk out some sneaky wins, but zero depth, home-field advantage, and unfortunate injury luck might have already sunk this team’s optimistic start.
The Bengals have a bottom-five pressure rate and spent all night putting Matt Stafford onto the turf. The Colts are league average this season, but are at home and motivated to face an injury-riddled offensive line. Stafford goes from the 5th best QB in PFF grade when kept clean and just 17th when under pressure.
This team can win with Anthony Richardson. They can win with Gardner Minshew. Shane Steichen is cooking something early in Indy.
Pick: Indianapolis +1, Win: Indianapolis
Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) v. Carolina Panthers
Carolina lost by 10 to a good Seattle squad, and now Bryce Young is back under center after a one-game respite with Andy Dalton.
Bryce Young has looked the worst of the rookie QBs drafted in the top 10, and now has to face Brian Flores’ constant blitzing. Who won’t be suiting up alongside Young? No Jonathan Mingo on offense, and no Shaq Thompson, Xavier Woods, or Jaycee Horn with Frankie Luvu still listed as questionable.
Cam Akers will be in the fold for Minnesota, which will further boost this offense after it was held hostage by Mattison’s low efficiency with his touches. And there is a sense of urgency with Minnesota, a former playoff team with its veteran QB on the last year of his deal, compared to Carolina — currently in Year 1 of the Bryce Young era.
Pick: Minnesota -4.5, Win: Minnesota
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) v. Tennessee Titans
The Titans lost by 1 to NOLA. Then won by 3 against the Chargers. Then got absolutely blown out. The Titans are sporadic, unpredictable, and just annoying to bet on.
What makes this game even harder to predict is the evaluation of the Bengals’ defense. It seems that Tannehill can’t handle an elite defense, but is Cincy elite? Winning against the Rams last week might be the worst thing for this team. If they were 0–3, maybe the front brass sits Burrow until he’s better 3–4 weeks down the line. But now, at 1–2, they have to scramble to salvage the season.
What is established is Tennessee’s run defense. It’s as legit as it was last year, and with Joe Burrow physically unable to take a snap under center, Tennessee might wreak havoc on Burrow and his lame calf with one less day of rest/practice. Vrabel as a home dog is not something I want to mess with.
Pick: Tennessee +2.5, Win: Tennessee
Arizona Cardinals (+14) v. San Francisco
I never pick a team to cover 13+ in the NFL because, any given Sunday, any team can hold its own against any team. These guys are professionals after all.
But San Francisco looks like the best team in the league, is facing a divisional opponent after 10 days of rest, and Kyle Shanahan is by far the toughest coach Cardinals bench boss Jonathan Gannon has faced in his young career. If it was going to happen, it’s right here. I’m just still not taking it.
Arizona is 3–0 ATS while divisional underdogs by double-digit points cover at a 62% rate since 2000.
Pick: Arizona +14, Win: Arizona
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) v. New York Jets
Zach Wilson has yet to cover a game he started this year, let alone win. Danny Heifetz of The Ringer pointed out an incredible Zach Wilson stat. When quarterbacks are given a clean pocket where no defensive pass rusher is able to apply any pressure, the average QBR is 70.0. Zach Wilson’s? 7.0.
How can you bet on Zach Wilson to cover on prime time when Taylor Swift could potentially be lurking in one of the stadium suites? The Kansas City Chiefs’ defense will do enough to terrorize Wilson while Mahomes should be able to do enough with the weapons at his side.
Pick: Kansas City -8.5, Win: Kansas City
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) v. New York Giants
Seattle has perked up offensively over the last two games after its opening week dud. The Hawks have scored 37 twice, including handing Detroit its only loss so far. Seattle’s defense hasn’t been spectacular, or even really mediocre so far, but this is a matchup for them to flex their muscles.
Daniel Jones’ INT % has ballooned from 1.1% last year to 4.1% this year while only adding 36 rushing yards. With Saquon Barkley still out, this offense will not have enough firepower to keep up with Seattle’s porous defense. Tight end Darren Waller has a touchdown catch in three of his past four Monday games interestingly enough.
To make Seahawks fans feel better about its defense, Devon Witherspoon is allowing just 42% of targets to be turned into catches while holding quarterbacks to an 84.7 passer rating, both marks higher than New England’s rookie corner Christian Gonzalez.
Pick: Seattle -1.5, Win: Seattle
Week 4 Stay-Aways
Atlanta Falcons (+3) v. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Falcons were 3-point underdogs last week against the Detroit Lions, who’ve proven to be a much better team than the 1–2 Jaguars so far.
The Falcons’ defense fared well against the Detroit Lions, and now they get to face a struggling Jacksonville unit without Zay Jones and their left tackle Cam Robinson. Despite the poor offensive output, I trust Arthur Smith’s time-stealing scheme. Jacksonville’s run defense has played above expectation, but has yet to take on a talent like Bijan Robinson.
Most importantly, this game is in London! It’s a stay-away just for that, like Thursday Night Pt II. I’ll take the field goal, but this game could go in several out-of-control directions early.
Pick: Atlanta +3, Win: Atlanta
Washington Commanders (+9.5) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia has won by 9.5 or more just once this year, against the Bucs last week. I’m not fading the Eagles at all (even though the loss of both coordinators will hurt this team more than expected), but I am leaning toward this game to be closer than a double-digit blowout.
Washington was the only team to beat Jalen Hurts last year, and get this game with some pretty good timing. They just got blown out by 34. Coming off a 30-point regular season loss in the NFL since 2000, teams cover 55% of the time. If that team was an underdog the subsequent week? That team covers 60% of the time.
Washington ranks 4th in the league in net success rate, they just keep turning the ball over. Two defensive touchdowns and a fluky Russell Wilson hail mary have hurt this team’s standing in the league, and I like the points for this divisional matchup.
Pick: Washington +9.5, Win: Philadelphia
Miami Dolphins (+3) v. Buffalo Bills
I don’t think anyone would blame Miami for finding its first loss in this spot. On the road against the former division winner after scoring more points than any team has done in nearly 60 years.
Interestingly enough, Miami’s trip to Buffalo is happening October 1, not December 21, and Jaylen Waddle is back. (Yes, the Greatest Show on Surf scored 70 without Waddle).
This is a huge test for Buffalo’s 2nd-rated PFF defense. That unit has faced Zach Wilson, Jimmy G, and Sam Howell. Tua and Co. is a different challenge in Mike McDaniels’ scheme, but I cant trust a newfound offense in back-to-back weeks. There’s always regression after scoring 60+.
Pick: Buffalo -3, Win: Buffalo
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) v. Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland defense is the official “unmovable object” of the league this year — maybe in the last couple of years. It is allowing a 27% or lower success rate in each game so far this season, a ridiculous number. A number so good, I would want to bet on this team for the rest of the year.
But, according to sources close to Cleveland, Watson could only throw two passes before going over to the trainer at practice Friday. That’s a bad sign and makes this game an automatic stay-away.
LT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum are returning for Baltimore, which is huge for the Ravens’ attempt to stop DPOY-candidate Myles Garrett. The Ravens are 10–1–1 ATS as an underdog with Lamar as the starting QB. His only loss ATS was by half a point to Kansas City IN Kansas City in 2019. I’m picking Baltimore.
Pick: Baltimore +2.5, Win: Baltimore
Denver Broncos (-3) v. Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1–10 ATS in its last 11 games (not to mention the team has lost 13 in a row straight up) while allowing 33.7 points in its last 13. In that stretch, team totals have jumped by an average of 11 points per game.
For Denver, at least Russell Wilson has been…better? 6 TDs in 3 games is good for 5th in the league while his completion %, passing success rate, yards per attempt, passer rating, and QBR have all improved over last year’s abysmal season.
Denver is a mess, but Chicago is on another level. The Denver Broncos are a sloppy high school party that broke some light fixtures and left some trash and stains on the carpet. The Bears? It’s a house that needs to be torn down to the foundation. Maybe it’s even haunted by ghosts.
Bear in mind, a Denver loss here might be the worst loss for the franchise in history. The team hasn’t made the playoffs for seven years, the longest stretch since 1965–70 when the team first joined the NFL from the AFL. Now the team has sunk more than $300 million into a quarterback and coach and that has only resulted into an 0–3 start and a defensive performance that gave up 10 touchdowns. A loss to the Bears here might end the historic franchise.
Pick: Denver -3, Win: Denver
Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) v. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are never a good bet when favored, especially by this much. And while they will face the Raiders without WR Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler, S Derwin James and DE Joey Bosa, the Raiders don’t have their own quarterback. Jimmy G is out with a concussion and Maxx Crosby might not even suit up.
Aiden O’Connell looked awesome in the preseason, but he may not even get the spot over Brian Hoyer. I would consider the Raiders if it was a couple more points, but in this screwy, injury-prone, divisional matchup between two teams that can’t get out of their own way, I’ll take the Chargers.
Pick: Los Angeles -5.5, Win: Los Angeles