2023 Week 3 Picks
A 20–10–2 start to the season is nothing to sneeze at, let’s keep the good vibes going.
Thursday Night Football
New York Giants (+10.5) v. San Francisco 49ers
TNF is unplayable and should not be betted on due to the sloppy, medieval product Amazon pumps out each week, but what’s the fun in that? All signs point to a Giants season out of hell due to their historically awful scoring drought to start the year, another Saquon Barkley injury in the first month of the season, and the defense continuously getting torched.
But laying 10.5 is too steep for someone who values Brian Daboll’s leadership and sideline outbursts. Daniel Jones is 26–15 ATS as an underdog in his career, and with his running ability and the sneaky good play out of 2nd-year offensive lineman Joshua Ezeudu, the injuries might have been mitigated with duct tape and hot glue for the interim.
On paper, the Giants should struggle with this team just as much (if not more) as they did versus Dallas. But after an improbable comeback saved their season backed into a short week, I’ll take the cover.
Pick: NY Giants +10.5, Win: San Francisco
Week 3 Locks
New Orleans Saints (-2) v. Green Bay Packers
New Orleans belongs on the list of most fraudulent 2–0 teams of the year. 37 points scored in 2 games while New Orleans will be without a formidable running game for at least another week (Jamaal Williams is out and Alvin Kamara is on ice for one final week).
Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are still questionable as of this writing, but if they suit up, it’s an offense that can explode at any moment while supported by a defense that can fully contain Derek Carr. Carr is currently at the lowest quarterback rating since his rookie year, his worst QBR since 2018, his highest INT % of his career, and the lowest TD% of his career, all while still being one of the biggest fumble risks in football.
Update: Christian Watson and Aaron Jones are out, leaving Jordan Love to face a top-five defensive unit with spare parts. The Saints defense? Hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game since week 9 last year.
Pick: New Orleans -2, Win: New Orleans
New England Patriots (-2.5) v. New York Jets
Ok, this is the kitchen sink game for New England. First time the Pats are 0–2 since 2001 now facing a team they’ve beaten 14 times in a row…and covered the spread in the last five.
Zach Wilson is probably the worst quarterback to earn a start since Nathan Peterman and Bill Belichick should feast with this elite defense. Whether or not the offense limps to a 3-point cover, or races in front in the 1st quarter, a 2.5 spread is perfect.
Pick: New England -2.5, Win: New England
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) v. Las Vegas Raiders
Steelers are coming off a divisional win while the Raiders lost by four touchdowns, and Vegas is favored by almost a field goal with that home-field advantage? We’re not exactly in Seattle for this game.
Pittsburgh has certainly been disappointing to start the year, but they’ve also faced two of the three best defenses in football to start the season, according to PFF (Dallas being the one they’ve missed).
George Pickens is showing a Year Two leap, Jaylen Warren is making up for any of Najee Harris’ shortcomings (ranking top 5 in yards after catch), and Mike Tomlin is just miles ahead of Josh McDaniels as a coach.
Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5, Win: Pittsburgh
Week 3 Dice Throws
Buffalo Bills (-6) v. Washington Commanders
The Bills are 8–1 ATS v Washington, but this is Buffalo at its weakest since 2019, and this is Washington at, potentially, its strongest since…2015? It’s incredible that Washington has only had 1 season with under 7 wins in the last 8 years.
Washington showed a lot of poise against Denver, and it’s 100% in play for them to have a back door cover to make a two-possession game a one-score game with 45 seconds to play. Ron Rivera and Eric Bieniemy are actually becoming a formidable duo and I just don’t want to take too much from Buffalo slaughtering the Raiders. When the Bills win, they win big against below-average teams, but I think Washington is friskier than that.
Pick: Washington +6, Win: Buffalo
Houston Texans (+9.5) v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Danny Kelly of The Ringer compared C.J. Stroud to Dak Prescott, and I personally love the comp. It tells me that, while he may not become an All-Pro stud, he belongs in the league and has a really strong floor early this early into his career. He looks great as a rookie heading into his 3rd start.
Stroud is still one of the worst quarterbacks against pressure, but guess what? Jacksonville is a bottom-five team pressuring quarterbacks, according to PFF. Dameon Pierce has struggled immensely behind the offensive line, but Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz are a really nice, safe receiving corps for a developing quarterback.
And after what Jacksonville showed us against Kansas City, why lay all those points so early into the season? Jacksonville is 15th in scoring differential, tied with Tennessee. I’ll take the cover. And Laremy Tunsil is back!
Pick: Houston +9.5, Win: Jacksonville
Denver Broncos (+6.5) v. Miami Dolphins
Here’s a weird stat: teams that are 0–2 both straight-up and ATS (Denver) cover at a 60% clip against teams that are 2–0 straight-up and ATS (Miami) over the last two decades.
Meaning? This is the ultimate zag as Sean Payton is drawing up a kitchen sink game similar to Bill Belichick and the Pats. Miami looks amazing to start the year, showcasing they can win in multiple ways offensively while having enough defense to not require weekly shootouts, but Denver is getting Jerry Jeudy back, and Miami is without Jaylen Waddle. That leaves Pat Surtain matching up on Tyreek Hill, and then Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft exposing the rest of the team’s secondary.
Denver is a tough team to bet on anyway, with Sean Payton still finding what works with this team on top of Russell Wilson’s erratic play style, but I like the cover as we learn more on what to expect from the mile-high club.
Pick: Denver +6.5, Win: Miami
Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) v. Baltimore Ravens
Here’s who is out for Baltimore this week: WR Odell Beckham Jr., RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Justice Hill, OT Ronnie Stanley, C Tyler Linderbaum, DE Odafeh Oweh, CB Marlon Humphrey, S Marcus Williams. Ouch!
Remember, Indianapolis poached quarterback Gardner Minshew from Philadelphia at Shane Steichen’s behest. Was Minshew effective for Philadelphia last year when Jalen Hurts was injured? Honestly, not really, but I’m “rolling the dice” on that combination being effective enough to cover against this already depleted Ravens team.
Pick: Indianapolis +7.5, Win: Baltimore
Dallas Cowboys (-13) v. Arizona Cardinals
Dallas’ scoring differential at +60 is absurd through two games, and they have proven they can cover large spreads (kinda like the Bills with Josh Allen).
I’m not fading the Cowboys (despite picking against them twice ATS to start the year), but is this team really going to win by 14+ for a third straight week? That would mean a +74 point differential three weeks in, which is a little too close to the 2007 New England Patriots’ start (+79 through three weeks).
And it’s not like Josh Dobbs isn’t serviceable. He has an 89.5 passer rating (Dak is at 98.7), is completing 68.9% of his passes (Dak is at 71.0%) and has 2 TDs to his name and no INTs…just like Dak. I’ll take the ridiculous cover.
Pick: Arizona +13, Win: Dallas
Chicago Bears (+12.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs
This is where the Bears are at over the last 12 games: 0–12 straight-up, 2–9–1 ATS all while the team has allowed 39.6 points per game to opponents. In this stretch, the Bears haven’t covered by an average of 9.5 points per game, which explains the bloated line.
But with a line this extreme, I always lean the cover. Justin Fields has a lot of motivation to show out this game and show the franchise “something” after his controversial comments at the presser.
KC is 9–14 ATS as a double-digit favorite, and this is one of Mahomes’ weaker teams, at least on offense without Bieniemy.
Pick: Chicago +12.5, Win: Kansas City
Philadelphia Eagles (-5) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Second prime time game in a row for Philly, this comes after an 11-day rest, which doesn’t help Tampa Bay. The Bucs have thrived on surprise performances and a lot of guts — two things that struggle when facing a team as talented as the Eagles.
With an 11th-ranked pass rush and 2nd-ranked run defense, this game is going to require Baker Mayfield to do a lot in order to win. After not facing a ton of pressure against Chicago’s awful defense, the rusty Bucs offensive line will be overmatched facing against Baby Rhino and company.
Jalen Carter was one of the top-performing interior defensive linemen in his NFL debut. Expect him to wreak havoc on prime time after all that rest. Also, while Rachaad White stands as one of the most inefficient running backs in football, D’Andre Swift has a top-5 matchup for Week 3 after his 181-yard day v. Minnesota.
Pick: Philadelphia +5, Win: Philadelphia
Week 3 Stay Aways
Los Angeles Chargers (+1) v. Minnesota Vikings
Is this a loser-goes-home matchup? Both former playoff teams are currently 0–2, what’s the precedent of a team making the playoffs after starting 0–3?
An incredible matchup of two franchises that excel in wasting offensive talent, it’s a complete toss-up. Kirk Cousins has been great statistically to start the season — №1 QB in fantasy at the moment — but the combination of him dueling with the Chargers coaching staff of Brandon Staley and Kellen Moore for the title of who’s worst with time management, this game is just going to be a disaster to bet on.
If I had to choose, I think Minnesota, at home on 10 days rest, has the slight advantage. Cam Akers is a true wildcard while LAC is stuck with Joshua Kelley and no Austin Ekeler. To top it off, I’m still a believer in Brian Flores’ defensive coaching, which will slowly improve Minnesota’s front seven. Also, Vikings are 5–0 ATS in last five games versus LAC.
Update: No Cam Akers yet, but still no Austin Ekeler for LAC. Pick is not changing.
Pick: Minnesota -1, Win: Minnesota
Atlanta Falcons (+3) v. Detroit Lions
Two non-playoff teams last year that I expected to take the leap in 2023, it’s another first-month toss-up. David Montgomery is out, which could hurt Detroit’s run-game effectiveness and prevent them from playing keep-away, but that offensive line is so good and if this leads to more Jahmyr Gibbs touches, it may all work out.
These are two elite run-first offenses anchored by two mad genius playcallers and anchored by two questionable defenses. So I lean toward Jared Goff, who lost by 3 to Seattle after an unfortunate pick-6 (his first in 384 pass attempts) and a fumble by the aforementioned Montgomery. Also, do I really believe Atlanta is 3–0 good?
Pick: Detroit -3, Win: Detroit
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) v. Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson is the 21st-ranked quarterback this season in terms of PFF grades, and that feels high. Now freshly-acquired Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford battle against the №1 run defense in football (#1 in success rate allowed and #2 in EPA in the rushing attack) with their much-maligned quarterback.
The defense is legit, but can the Browns really cover by 4 without Nick Chubb? He was averaging 6 yards a touch while netting 191 yards in just about 5 quarters. Yeah, Derrick Henry has looked a step slow for Tennessee, but Tyjae Spears is there to clean up any messes and keep the ball out of Tannehill’s hands as much as possible.
Pick: Tennessee +3.5, Win: Tennessee
Carolina Panthers (+6) v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is staying in the stay-away pile for September as we decide whether or not last year was a fluke or if this team is contending for a playoff spot once more.
Seattle’s pass defense this year is 30th in EPA per dropback while allowing teams to convert on 3rd down at a 61% clip to start the season. Yes, Jamal Adams is set to return. Yes, Devon Witherspoon is finally playing. But the secondary is still beat up. If they were facing Bryce Young IN Seattle? I wouldn’t be sweating this game.
But Andy Dalton is suiting up at quarterback for Carolina. He’s 3–1 against Seattle in his career, including a victory over them last year as a member of the New Orleans Saints 39–32. Seattle should still win this game, but not by a touchdown-plus.
Pick: Carolina +6, Win: Seattle
Los Angeles Rams (+3) v. Cincinnati Bengals
We’ve seen this before from Cincinnati, starting a season 0–2 only to become one of the AFC’s most elite squads by season’s end. But this year is different than last year. They lost the first two games in 2022 by a combined 6 points, and Joe Burrow had 3 passing TDs (and 4 INTs against Pittsburgh in the season debut).
This year, Cincinnati is the 3rd worst scoring offense, is allowing more than 25 points a game (and that includes a game against Deshaun Watson), and has 25 first downs compared to 51 last year. Ja’Marr Chase only has 70 total yards, and just seven players have been targeted for a pass (including three running backs).
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams have been closer to channeling their 2021 selves instead of last year’s “year out of hell.” Stafford and company gave the 49ers all they could handle through three quarters in what might be one of the best performances against the 9ers that team sees all season. Geno Smith looked practically neutered against these plucky Rams, and Brock Purdy had his worst start since his league debut (first time he failed to throw a touchdown in a regular season game).
Cincinnati has only given up three sacks compared to 13 at this point last year and the Rams’ pass rush is mediocre at best, leaving a window for this to be a “get right game” for Joe Cool, but I just don’t see it yet.
Pick: Los Angeles +3, Win: Los Angeles