2023 Week 5 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Chicago Bears (+6.5) v. Washington Commanders
Wins of 18 and 14 last two TNF games makes me feel slightly more comfortable in giving away 5.5 points, but this game is still a complete stay away given the short week.
Betting on a team that has allowed opponents to score 25 or more for 13 straight games is a rough outlook, but Ron Rivera is 2–4 ATS in Washington when favored by more than 3.
And why should Washington deserve a near 7-point line? One week the team is a disaster, the next week it’s competing with the best teams in the league. Washington has only won its 2 wins by a combined 6 points.
Following a Sunday OT game, teams are 3–21 ATS since 2000 and 6–18 straight up. I’ll take the Bears in a rare turn.
Pick: Chicago +6.5, Win: Chicago
Week 5 Locks
New Orleans Saints (+1) v. New England Patriots
New England lost two of its best defenders in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. Judon had 40% of the team’s sacks while, at best, NE is left with DBs Jonathan Jones and Shaun Wade — the 4th and 5th string corners (who are also listed as questionable!)
The Saints have the fifth-best defense, according to PFF, making this the fifth team Mac Jones has to face that ranks in the top 13 in defense through the first 5 weeks. In return, Jones is going through a career-low in a number of passing metrics.
The Saints’ defense is the best unit on the field this game, I’m riding with that.
Pick: New Orleans +1, Win: New Orleans
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) v. Arizona Cardinals
This Bengals team is favored? Against the Cardinals at home? Where AZ beat Dallas 28–16 just a couple of weeks ago. This is a ridiculous line.
And yet, this is the best value Cincinnati will ever get. AZ grades as a bottom-8 pass-rushing unit, a bottom-10 run defense, and a bottom-3 secondary. Mixon should have a nice matchup while Joe Burrow is expected to have a semi-significant upturn in production from his reaggravated calf strain.
Are the Bengals truly a 1–4 squad? I don’t believe so, I’m taking the Bengals even if this is their year out of hell. I’ve been high on Josh Dobbs’ play, but he has 0 turnovers against five turnover-worthy plays. That should regress against a former playoff team.
Pick: Cincinnati -3, Win: Cincinnati
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) v. Minnesota Vikings
This is a “get-right-game” for the Chiefs after a bizarre primetime New York fest that featured a lot of Taylor Swift and even more Zach Wilson playing … competently?
Kansas City has a better offense in terms of DVOA, net yards per play, and net success rate than Minnesota, and that is Minnesota’s strength as a football team.
Defensively, Minnesota has sent a blitz on an astonishing 57% of dropbacks this season, most in the league. Who is the best quarterback against the blitz? Patrick Mahomes of course. He should slash this defense.
Pick: Kansas City -3.5, Win: Kansas City
New York Jets (+2.5) v. Denver Broncos
I am not hopping on the Zach Wilson hype train, but this Denver defense could qualify as one of the worst this century. I trust Zach Wilson and his weapons against an all-time awful defense more than Payton and Wilson playing an elite defense.
The Jets have played Buffalo, NE, KC and Dallas — three of those possessing top-10 defenses. The Jets have averaged 24.7 points a game and have gone 4–2 ATS when facing a bottom-10 pass defense in terms of EPA in the Zach Wilson era.
Pick: New York +2.5, Win: New York
Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) v. San Francisco 49ers
So now Dak Prescott needs to have an A-rated game for the first time this season to pull off a victory. Multiple TD passes this season? Just once. Games with more than 260 passing yards? Just one. The offensive line is getting more banged up, leading to Dak taking more sacks each week compared to the last while being completely immobile as a pocket passer.
The good thing is he is not turning the ball over, unlike last year. Also, it’s San Francisco v Dallas. SF has defeated Dallas in the playoffs two years in a row, and that was with Kellen Moore calling plays. Kyle Shanahan has Mike McCarthy’s number, and this Dallas team isn’t the Week 1 juggernaut we assume them to be. Trevon Diggs is a huge loss for this defense.
Dak is 17–25 ATS against teams above .500.
Pick: San Francisco -3.5, Win: San Francisco
Green Bay Packers (+2) v. Las Vegas Raiders
10 days rest and all of his toys available, Jordan Love should tear up the 18th-ranked pass defense and the 20th-ranked tackling team.
Luke Musgrave, Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are all in the fold with plenty of time to practice and rest, while Green Bay gets to feast on Aidan O’Connell. The rookie passer kept it a single-score game, but that’s more on Brandon Staley’s insistence to never crush opponents — particularly those below them within the division.
Green Bay also has the 9th-best secondary, according to PFF, much more difficult for a fresh-faced QB to face than the Chargers’ Swiss cheese defense.
Pick: Green Bay +2, Win: Green Bay
Week 5 Dice Throws
Baltimore Ravens (-4) v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett is playing with a bone bruise on his knee. He won’t have any mobility to escape Baltimore’s pass rush while playing with the worst-ranked offensive line in football (that’s also missing two starters). The o-line is so bad it grades 7 points lower than the next closest team (NYG).
I feel like I whiffed on Pittsburgh in the offseason, and Baltimore has a real shot to have wins against Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh through the first five weeks all on the road. With WR Rashod Bateman and WR Odell Beckham Jr, offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley, corner Marlon Humphrey, and safety Marcus Williams all returning, I like Baltimore in a zag from pundits expecting every matchup between these two teams to be 16–14.
Pick: Baltimore -4, Win: Baltimore
Houston Texans (+2) v. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has scored 13 points in the last 2 weeks combined. Kyle Pitts and Drake London are first and third in lowest catchable target rate. Ridder qualifies for the bottom five in just about every passing metric. The loud decision to not pursue Lamar Jackson is becoming laughable.
Ridder only has 8 career starts and deserves more time, but now he’s not even avoiding turnovers — the one positive to his game outside of his scrambling abilities. Fans will be clamoring for Taylor Heinicke soon enough.
All Houston needs is an early lead and Atlanta is done for. I’m riding with Houston.
Pick: Houston +2, Win: Houston
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) v. Indianapolis Colts
This Colts team, much like its division-rival Houston, continues to surprise and surge in a weaker division. But this Colts defense is bad (22nd in PFF grade overall, including the 8th-worst coverage grade), and now that LB Shaq Leonard, DE Kwity Paye, DT Deforest Buckner and DT Tayquan Lewis all could be out — leaving a bad secondary paired with a limited run defense.
Tennessee continues to be matchup-dependent. Elite defenses and pass rushes will stop this offense while paper-thin defenses will allow Tannehill to look more than serviceable. Tennessee also has a top-10 rate in explosive plays, leading toward a better chance to cover. Indy’s explosive plays? 2nd to last.
Richardson has played above expectation for his first month, but a running QB against a top-five run defense? Things slow down on Sunday for Indianapolis. Yes, Jonathan Taylor is back, but he may need some weeks before he pops.
Pick: Tennessee -2.5, Win: Tennessee
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) v. Los Angeles Rams
Matt Stafford and his bad back and ailing hip with Cooper Kupp coming off IR might spell disaster against the Philly team that hasn’t completely popped off yet.
Stafford looked so beat up at the end of the Indianapolis game (which required OT), I think this is exactly what this team is. A talented, well-coached team with debilitating injuries and no depth. Now by Week 5, the holes in the Rams’ squad are starting to show.
Philly’s secondary has been underperforming, which is trouble against Stafford — Kupp — Nacua, but the second half of the Indianapolis v Los Angeles game is all I needed to see to not trust Stafford against one of the best front fours in the league.
Pick: Philadelphia -4, Win: Philadelphia
Week 5 Stay Aways
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) v. Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville is a perfect 5–5 in its 10 London games dating back to 2013. One of those wins was a 34–31 victory over Buffalo. This is just the second time Buffalo will be playing in London, while the Jags have had all week to get acquainted with the gray skies and milquetoast food. The Jags are also getting its coveted Left Tackle back after a 4-game suspension, while Buffalo has to face Lawrence, Ridley, and company sans Tre’Davious White.
White was Buffalo’s only corner in PFF’s top 50 defensive backs in terms of allowing the lowest QB rating. This team has also won by 28 or more three straight times. Teams that have won by 28+ just twice cover only 35% of the time when favored by more than 3 the following week. I’m just expecting a crash back to Earth. A visit to London should do it.
Pick: Jacksonville +5.5, Win: Jacksonville
New York Giants (+11.5) v. Miami Dolphins
It’s a stay-away for two reasons. The spread is ridiculous and these games become ridiculous in response. And I’m going to break one of my coveted rules and pick Miami to cover.
I’m sick of being let down by this lame Giants team, this anemic offense, and the awful first halves that the Dolphins will surely abuse. Will the team lighten up on the brakes in the 2nd half? They haven’t shown that, and are motivated to play hard after the ass-kicking that took place in Buffalo.
Mike McDaniels might just use the 2nd half to get Chase Claypool some TDs.
Pick: Miami -11.5, Win: Miami
Carolina Panthers (+9) v. Detroit Lions
I don’t think I’ve ever remembered a time when Detroit has been favored by 9 points. The Lions’ last two wins have been by a combined 28 points, and now they get to face one of the worst teams in the league.
Carolina barely covered 9 against Minnesota last week, let alone a team much more talented like Detroit, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is out. Jameson Williams could be something as a talent, and it could happen as soon as this season, but he has one career catch to this point. I’ll take the cover.
Pick: Carolina +9, Win: Detroit