2023 Week 6 NFL picks
Thursday Night Football
Denver Broncos (+10.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs
After winning by a margin of 11+ five times in 2022, the Kansas City Chiefs have only covered a spread of this size once against the Chicago Bears (who lost to Denver by 3).
Denver is in a tough spot. The franchise has lost 15 games in a row to Kansas City and is anchored by arguably the worst defense in the last 10 years. Fun fact, Denver has won a Super Bowl more recently than they’ve beaten the Chiefs.
But with Frank Clark facing his former team (he logged a 64.0 PFF grade last year, his best since 2018, compared to a 45.7 PFF grade this year) and Travis Kelce battling an injury, Denver should be able to cover this spread in a “kitchen sink” game against a division rival on a short week.
Denver has four scoreless quarters (the same as Kansas City) against two quarters scoring double-digit points, which proves what we’ve seen through the first month of the season — the offense is really streaky, and against a good defense, the Broncos will have some really inconsistent drives.
But it’s not like Kansas City has been consistent on offense. This is a team that is on pace to have ZERO 1,000-yard WRs…in a 17-game season. I like the double-digit cover on a short week when there is so much desperation on the other side.
Pick: Denver +10.5, Win: Kansas City
Week 6 locks
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) v Tennessee Titans
The Ravens lost 17–10 to an apocalyptical offense in Pittsburgh, but Lamar Jackson was great until the end when Tomlin’s defense completely collapsed onto him. Will the Ravens WRs (and Mark Andrews) drop the ball seven times again? Including at least two TDs and probably three? Most likely not, even with this game happening across the Atlantic.
Ravens should have won the last game with ease, and now have a chip on their shoulder to make amends and take advantage of a weird lull in what was expected to be arguably the most difficult division.
According to Warren Sharp, favorites are 26–15 ATS in international games.
Pick: Baltimore -4.5, Win: Baltimore
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) v Cleveland Browns
This doesn’t need to be too elaborate. The league’s best defense and the second-best offense is facing P.J. Walker — a former XFL QB with a career 65 passer rating in seven starts — in his first game action of the year.
Cleveland lost to Baltimore 28–3 when Deshaun Watson was out. I’m not intimidated by the large spread. Brock Purdy could struggle against the best defense he’s faced in his career (2022 Eagles might disagree with that claim), but there’s no way I want to bank on Walker covering a single-digit spread, especially with no Nick Chubb to lean on and drain the clock.
Pick: San Francisco -9.5, Win: San Francisco
Seattle Seahawks (+3) v Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase adopted a scorched earth policy against Arizona, and now the Bengals are back…right?
But this Seahawks defense is not last year’s Hawks defense. Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen and Jamal Adams will be ready for the bout. We’ll see if all the quotes jinxed them or not.
Offensively, Seattle ranks seventh in explosive rush rate and 10th for its overall rushing attack, and faces a defense that was giving up more than 7 yards a carry to James Connor. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet should have some big games. Geno Smith’s quarterback rating is slightly lower than last year (mostly due to his TD percentage dropping 1%), but his QBR is actually up (from 62.8 to 64.3).
And Seattle is coming off a bye! Road teams off a bye are 55% against the spread in the 21st century. The Seahawks have lost by 3 in each of its last two games against Cincy, but the last contest between the two squads was in 2015, so it means very little.
Pick: Seattle +3, Win: Seattle
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) v New York Jets
No Sauce Gardner? No DJ Reed? Jaylen Hurts throwing to AJ Brown and Devonta Smith with Quincy Williams, Bryce Hall and Michael Carter II guarding them?
On top of it, lineman Alijah Vera Tucker might be out for the season while lineman Duane Brown is already on IR. And this matchup also contains Jaylen Hurts going up against Zach Wilson, one of the biggest disparities the quarterback position will see this season.
Can Breece Hall save this team and help a cover by owning the clock? The NY Jets ran the ball 22 times for 38 yards against New England, which ranks 8 spots lower than the Eagles’ 2nd-ranked run defense.
Pick: Philadelphia -6.5, Win: Philadelphia
Week 6 Dice Throws
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) v Houston Texans
Houston continues to impress, especially C.J. Stroud, but I can’t shake the draft comparison between Stroud and Dak Prescott that The Ringer’s Danny Kelly put together. With Stroud ranking just 15th among active QBs, according to PFF, I truly wonder if Houston’s rookie QB may have the highest floor, but the lowest ceiling among the slingers drafted in the top 10.
This is a true test for him playing the Saints and its third-ranked defense. Tank Dell still hasn’t been cleared from concussion protocol, Robert Woods is now questionable, the offensive line remains battered with injuries, and Dameon Pierce is averaging less than 3 yards a carry.
The Saints offense has been dreadful, but the talent on paper should put them over the top. Derek Carr is limited even when healthy, but Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed are a pretty impressive group.
Pick: New Orleans -1.5, Win: New Orleans
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) v Chicago Bears
Beyond Justin Jefferson being the near-unanimous №1 pick in fantasy this year, he’s also one of the most important skill position players in the league.
But Jordan Addison looks like a stud, TJ Hockenson is 4th in yards among TEs (Kelce included), and K.J. Osborn has proven to be a serviceable WR to fill in, even if he’s not on Adam Thielen’s caliber. The Vikings’ offense grades 5th overall on offense, according to PFF.
The Bears beat up on Washington on a short week for its first win, but that win alone + Jefferson’s absence does not explain the mere 2.5-point spread. Minnesota was a playoff team last year while the Bears just lost 14 in a row.
Pick: Minnesota -2.5, Win: Minnesota
Indianapolis Colts (+4) v Jacksonville Jaguars
Ok, let’s turn on our galaxy brains. Jacksonville played two games in a row and still doesn’t get a bye before returning to the States??? I know they are professional athletes but jetlag knows no bounds.
And who is Jacksonville facing? It’s an old quarterback the franchise gave up on in favor of the prodigal prince Trevor Lawrence. And this team’s offense is still not what it could be, ranking in the bottom half of the league in passing TDs, passing first downs, rushing yards per attempt, and total TDs.
LT Bernard Raiman, LB Shaq Leonard and DE Kwitty Paye are all set to return for Indianapolis, and with Gardner Minshew filling in gracefully in Shane Steichen’s scheme, safety aside, AND Jonathan Taylor slotting in alongside Zach Moss’s ridiculous season, I like the Colts in a weird week for the Jaguars.
Pick: Indianapolis +4, Win: Indianapolis
New England Patriots (+3) v Las Vegas Raiders
We’ll get to the disastrous Patriots, but the Raiders’ two wins this year were a 1-point win over Denver and a 4-point win against Green Bay and its infantile offensive corps (the Raiders only scored 17).
New England might be a bottom-five team, and certainly bottom-10, but is Bill Belichick, arguably the sport’s greatest coach, really going to lose to his former disciple Josh McDaniels and his quarterback, another Pat product, Jimmy Garappolo after losing the last two weeks by a combined 72–3. Don’t forget Jacobi Meyers.
This is an offense New England can solve as it’s less about scheme and more about getting the ball to its two superstars — Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. The offense will be predictable for Belichick and company to solve.
Vegas has yet to score more than 18 points despite facing the 3rd easiest schedule. And if Adams is still hobbled by a shoulder injury, New England should take care of business despite going through its worst season in more than 20 years. Those conversations will pick up again next week when New England hosts the Bills.
Pick: New England +3, Win: New England
Detroit Lions (-3) v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is having a hot start to the season and got an early bye to prepare for the beat-up Detroit Lions. Three defensive backs for Detroit won’t be available alongside Jahmyr Gibbs while Amon-Ra St. Brown, while suiting up, is clearly not 100%.
But is Tampa Bay really just a 3-point underdog to a top-five NFC team? Is Tampa Bay really about to be 4–1? Facing Desmond Ridder, Jordan Love and Bryce Young has made Detroit’s defense look substantially stronger than it might be, but I don’t know if Baker Mayfield is going to break that trend.
If it was a point or two more, I would look Tampa’s way due to its defensive prowess, but 3 is way too little considering the gap between the clubs.
Pick: Detroit -3, Win: Detroit
Dallas Cowboys (-2) v Los Angeles Chargers
Kellen Moore facing his old team with Justin Herbert and a bye while Austin Ekeler is set to return. And the Chargers are home? (Albeit in probably the worst home-field advantage in the league). I honestly feel like the spread should be flipped.
The Chargers’ offense will be much more multi-dimensional with Ekeler boosting the team’s 18th-ranked rushing offense while Dallas faces a couple ofholes on defense due to injury.
The strongest part of Dallas’ defense is its pass rush, anchored by All-Pro Micah Parsons. But Justin Herbert ranks №2 in the league when throwing against pressure.
These teams rank incredibly close, but a key difference is the gap between red zone efficiency. Chargers score a TD 68.8% of the time when they enter the red zone (5th in the NFL) while the Cowboys score a TD just 36.8%, good for 28th in the league.
Pick: Los Angeles +2, Win: Los Angeles
Week 6 Stay Aways
Washington Commanders (+2.5) v Atlanta Falcons
Ahhhhhh! Just when I finally caved to the communal pressure that Desmond Ridder isn’t HIM, he has a career-best game and defeats the upstart Texans with a game-winning drive. He bought himself some time as the Falcons have some very winnable games coming up (Washington, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota Arizona are the next five games for them).
But two of Atlanta’s three wins have been by 2 or less points, making this line extremely difficult to figure out. These offenses grade fairly similarly (18th for Washington compared to 20th for Atlanta), and both are built around very different schemes featuring prominent rookies and young offensive pieces.
Sam Howell is on pace for 99 sacks (23 more than the league record), but with 10 days off, Eric Bieniemy in tow, and Atlanta boasting the seventh-worst pass rush, I’ll take the points against a team that wins by slim margins.
Pick: Washington +2.5, Win: Washington
Carolina Panthers (+14) v Miami Dolphins
Carolina is one of the worst teams in the league, the front office blew its upcoming draft capital, and Bryce Young is off to a very shaky start. But 14 is still too much for me to lay down.
I’m higher on Miami’s defense than most, thanks to the hire of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio alongside some studs on that side of the ball, but the unit ranks 31st in success rate and 22nd in EPA per play.
With no Devin Achane, this offense is “slightly” easier to defend, while possessing a defense that could give up a backdoor cover. Miami is also a team that can beat up on piss poor squads by 50, so it remains a stay-away.
Pick: Carolina +14, Win: Miami
Arizona Cardinals (+7) v Los Angeles Rams
Two teams who have performed better than unexpected for various reasons, but also two clubs that pundits are waiting to turn into pumpkins. Can Josh Dobbs keep up his early start? Do the Rams have enough depth to overcome various injuries?
Due to this being a divisional game between the bottom two teams of the NFC West, one squad is not 7 points better than the other — on paper.
Puka Nucua and Cooper Kupp are always a threat to defenses in terms of blowout potential, especially when Stafford isn’t facing immense pressure. Arizona is 6th to last in pass rush rate, according to PFF.
But the Rams have the worst pass coverage in the league while possessing a bottom-half pass rush, leaving ample opportunities to cover the 7-point spread.
Pick: Arizona +7, Win: Los Angeles
New York Giants (+15) v Buffalo Bills
You know my rules for games like these. I always take the underdog on spreads of 12 and more because, hey, any given Sunday am I right?
The problem is Buffalo is the king of beating up on bad football. And the Giants are the definition of bad considering how much we’ve been forced to watch them on primetime.
But Darren Waller and Saquon Barkley are expected to play, and Tyrod Taylor could potentially play better than Daniel Jones — who’s having a career-low in passer rating, QBR, TD% and a career-high in INT% — when facing a defense without Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White.
Pick: New York +15, Win: Buffalo