2023 Week 7 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) v New Orleans Saints
You could argue Jacksonville hasn’t faced any legit NFL offenses (wins over Indy, Atlanta, Buffalo in London, and Indy again), but New Orleans is not a threat on the offensive side of the ball. Derek Carr’s TD% is a career low while he’s produced the lowest QBR of his career since 2018, when he went 4–12.
Both teams are in the bottom 10 in sacks, but Jacksonville is 2nd in the league in turnover differential (+7), and New Orleans likes to turn the ball over.
Trevor Lawrence is battered and bruised, but is suiting up to play. This may scare off some bettors as New Orleans’ defense remains exceptional, but on a short week, I like Doug Pederson’s inventiveness over Dennis Allen’s stale offensive system.
It’s not like New Orleans is capable of blowing teams out of the water. Outside of a 34–0 dusting over New England, the squad has just 75 points across five games while allowing 96.
Pick: Jacksonville +2.5, Win: Jacksonville
Week 7 Locks
Cleveland Browns (-3) v Indianapolis Colts
A weird Deshaun Watson story was brewing over Cleveland’s medical staff clearing him while he remained on the sideline for additional weeks. But he’s expected to suit up, and the defense that is a week separated from shutting down one of the three deadliest offenses in football this season now gets to face Gardner Minshew.
Now I love Gardner Minshew, and I hope he proves his worth to the league with Anthony Richardson out. But Minshew turns the ball over. He has three INTs and two fumbles across five appearances (just 138 pass attempts).
Cleveland’s defense is allowing the fewest yards per game the league has seen in the last 50 years. The squad leads the league in passing yards, points, first downs and third-down conversions allowed. I’ll spot the 3.
Pick: Cleveland -3, Win: Cleveland
Arizona Cardinals (+8) v Seattle Seahawks
Seattle burned me last week, but I thought the team thoroughly outplayed Cincinnati until the offense stumbled into the red zone. But this is a team that bounces back after ugly losses, and despite being a respectable 3–2, the Seahawks are still 0–1 in the division.
Arizona meanwhile feels like it has been exposed. The team plays hard, especially on defense, but since scoring 28 points in back-to-back weeks (including a win over Dallas), Arizona has mustered just 45 points in its last three games.
The Cardinals only have one defensive back above a 45 coverage grade, so even if DK Metcalf misses a game, this team has plenty of depth at wide receiver. Seattle also has a №2 ranked offense in success rate on early downs. How does Arizona fare in those situations? Dead last. This is a get-right game for the Hawks.
Pick: Seattle -8, Win: Seattle
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) v Denver Broncos
Green Bay is coming off a bye, and that’s with Christian Watson already showing what he can be capable of before the bye. Now Aaron Jones is returning, and this is all occurring against the league’s worst defense.
I understand the concerns over Jordan Love — 2 TDs against 6 INTs in his last three games — but these teams are on completely different levels. The Packers are vying for a wildcard spot in an NFC looking for seven playoff teams, while the Broncos are flat-out tanking. Two defensive players have already been shipped out, and more guys are looking like they will find new homes soon too.
I’m going to keep fading this Denver defense, and with 1.5 points only to cover, I’m banking on Green Bay bouncing back.
Pick: Green Bay -1.5, Win: Green Bay
Miami Dolphins (+2.5) v Philadelphia Eagles
Damn these Eagles and that horrific loss to the Jets. I think that game was the culmination of fears with Jalen Hurts without his offensive coordinator (7 TDs against 7 INTs on the year). But I love me a bounce-back game, and this is the definition of one.
Miami has defeated LAC, New England, Denver, NYG and Carolina this year. Now, that was a different New England team than the one we’re seeing now, but it’s not an elite list of defeated teams. Miami may simply be overwhelmed by Philly’s talent on the field at home in front of a very raucous fan base.
The Dolphins’ defense remains a problem, ranking in the bottom three in limiting success rate against the run, while Philadelphia ranks №1 in rushing success rate. There are some incredible advanced analytics on Hurts’ play with and without offensive lineman Lane Johnson, proving he’s one of the most impactful non-QBs in football.
But Lane Johnson is playing, and so is rookie phenom Jalen Carter. To top it off, All-Pro corner Darius Slay is returning. This Philly team will be angry, upset and motivated, and these Fins may be the casualty of this scorched Earth expectation. Jalen Hurts is still an incredible 22–2 in his last 24 regular season games. The last time Hurts has lost two games in a row? October 24, 2021.
Pick: Philadelphia -2.5, Win: Philadelphia
Week 7 Dice Throws
Buffalo Bills (-7.5) v New England
The Bills are kings at beating up on bad teams, and 7.5 is a number this squad can clear against these woeful, pitiful, no-good, rotten, loser Patriots.
I still have my hesitations with this Bills team against the rest of the AFC contenders, but any injuries the Bills are struggling with are countered by New England’s own gluttony of injuries. And after its poor showing against the Giants on primetime against former Bill Brian Daboll makes me feel they will be extra motivated to have a dominant outing. It helps that Buffalo has swept New England in two of the last three seasons. In the one season they didn’t sweep, Buffalo ended New England’s campaign with a 47–17 postseason dismantling in 2021.
Mac Jones has lost 11 straight ATS as an underdog, and this team feels like it belongs in the thick of tanking franchises.
Pick: Buffalo +7.5, Win: Buffalo
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) v Chicago Bears
Are the Raiders really going to be 4–3? In a game of backup quarterbacks, Brian Hoyer gets my vote of confidence over Tyson Bagent (who, to be fair, was the 6th-ranked preseason QB according to PFF), alongside the Raiders’ slew of weapons: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Michael Mayer. Mayer is just now starting to be unlocked, and was my pick as the best TE in the 2023 draft (Sam LaPorta is winning that bet right now).
Is the Bears offense even built for Bagent who looked completely immobile compared to Justin Fields? This feels like a monster Maxx Crosby game, who ranks №1 in both pass-rushing grade and run-stopping grade. The Bears are left with its third-string running back with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson out.
There’s expected to be some weather in the game, with strong winds and sloppy turf in play, but I think that is just as much of a disadvantage for fresh-faced Bagent as it is for the Vegas Raiders.
Pick: Las Vegas -2.5, Win: Las Vegas
Washington Commanders (-2) v New York Giants
In another matchup featuring a backup quarterback (albeit Tyrod Taylor is a nice 26–26–1 as a starter), Washington’s pass rush could feast against an offensive line that’s working through five different injuries, including three starters. The Giants own the league-worst pass-rushing grade (30.4, according to PFF).
But Sam Howell is on pace for 90+ sacks this season, potentially 20 more than the league record set by in 2002 by David Carr. The way this team is playing on defense now, under Daboll, Howell could be under hell fire.
Washington kicked Atlanta around last week, but its worth mentioning th defense still allowed more than 400 yards while its offense couldn’t even muster 200. Ridder was just incredibly sloppy with that ball. Tyrod Taylor won’t be, especially at home.
Pick: New York +2, Win: New York
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) v Los Angeles Rams
Am I going to quit this Steelers team? Maybe, but not this week. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and Diontae Johnson is returning, unfortunately at the same time Pat Freiermuth is heading to IR.
The Rams have been one of the league’s nice surprises, with Sean McVay reminding everyone he’s still an elite coach. But if TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith can get to the aging and stiff Matt Stafford, I can’t imagine the Rams offense being able to do much.
Mike Tomlin is 38–25 ATS in his career as an underdog on the road, and it won’t even be an away game for Pittsburgh with all the Steelers fans in LA. Tomlin is also 13–5 ATS without Roethlisberger, meaning Kenny Pickett still has a shot in this offense alongside Tomlin. Just GOAT’d stuff from the maestro himself.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3, Win: Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) v Kansas City Chiefs
This is a lot of points for a divisional matchup between the two top teams of the AFC West. (Raiders quietly looming? Nah, right?) Games between these two squads have been decided by 3, 6, 6, 3 and 3 points.
Kansas City scored just 19 points against the worst defense in football (on a short week), and has only scored more than 25 twice this season. The Chargers overall, in 18 of the last 23 games, have been decided by 7 points or less.
Justin Herbert is 7–0 ATS when he and his Chargers are an underdog of 5 or more in his career. Normally, the Chiefs’ long rest versus the Chargers’ short rest (playing on a Monday) would make me favor Kansas City, but Mahomes is just 4–6 ATS off both a mini bye and a regular bye in the regular season.
Justin Herbert was embarrassed on prime time against a desperate Cowboys team. If he truly belongs on the elite level Twitter fans say he is, he will bounce back and keep this game close, especially with Austin Ekeler back in the fold.
Pick: Los Angeles +5.5, Win: Los Angeles
San Francisco 49ers (-7) v Minnesota Vikings
The 49ers are looking healthier than originally presumed after failing to survive against Cleveland’s horror-inspired defense. Deebo Samuel is out for approximately two weeks, and Trent Williams is most likely out, but Christian McCaffrey still might suit up. It seems like their injuries could have been a lot worse, especially for San Francisco.
Meanwhile, Minnesota couldn’t even score 20 against Chicago when multiple Bears QBs had to suit up. The team can’t move the ball on the ground, there’s no Justin Jefferson in sight, and Kirk Cousins is a statue-esque gunslinger that this 49ers defense will thrive against.
The Vikings only had 220 yards of offense, and went 2–13 on third down, in its win against Chicago. The team’s only other win came against the only defeated team in the league.
Minnesota has the third most passing yards in the NFL, but only ranks 18th in scoring — which makes me feel this is a prime matchup for San Francisco. The defense will blitz like crazy, but it hasn’t been effective outside of Danielle Hunter sharing the league lead in sacks.
Pick: San Francisco -7, Win: San Francisco
Week 7 Stay Aways
Atlanta Falcons (+3) v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another week, another stay-away from the Falcons. After throwing one INT in his first three games, Desmond Ridder has now thrown five. He threw the ball 47 times last game. That number should probably be 20 throws less.
Atlanta will win if the team can control the clock with its newfangled run scheme, but it’ll be hard to pull off against a pretty elite Tampa Bay defense. Tampa Bay has faced some challenging offenses, which makes this matchup a bit of an opportunity.
Opponents facing Tampa Bay have thrown the ball at the highest rate over their season average this season and the Buccaneers rank last in explosive pass plays allowed. Sounds like trouble, but Desmond Ridder is a bottom-five quarterback in the league.
Still, Tampa Bay has looked a little exposed (like the previously mentioned Cardinals). The team had a hot start on an easy schedule, but the offense has scored 11 and 6 points in two of its last three games. It’s a team I like as an underdog, but not when I have to lay 3. Plus, it’s Atlanta after all, in another divisional matchup. Atlanta already has had two games decided by less than three points through its first six contests.
Pick: Atlanta +3, Win: Atlanta
Detroit Lions (+3) v Baltimore Ravens
Normally, in tight matchups against two playoff teams, I just like taking the 3 or so points on the table, but this is a tough week for Detroit to face Baltimore.
David Montgomery is out for a few weeks, and he has been nothing short of consistent. The churn-and-burn running back keeps lumbering along in Detroit’s offense to keep Jared Goff’s turnovers at bay. But with multiple running backs banged up, and more strong winds, this offense will be out of sorts for stretches.
Detroit is also facing one of the best run defenses in football. Baltimore’s run defense currently ranks 6th in success rate, and this is a pattern that has stayed consistent for over a year now (pretty much since Roquan Smith joined the team).
Detroit has faced Desmond Ridder, Jordan Love, Bryce Young and Baker Mayfield in its last four games, which means Lamar Jackson could give them trouble when he takes off and runs amid the high winds.
Baltimore has been disappointing on offense, but Jackson ranks 4th among quarterbacks when passing (according to PFF) and 11th when rushing. He’s 15–1 all-time against the NFC, including 7–0 when facing NFC teams at home.
Pick: Baltimore -3, Win: Baltimore