2023 Week 8 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) v. Buffalo Bills
This is exactly how I like this Bucs team. A scrappy underdog with too many points not to cover with.
Buffalo used to be the kings of beating up the bad, but over its last three weeks, the Bills lost to Jacksonville by 5 (in London), beat Tyrod Taylor and the Giants by 5, and then gave up Mac Jones’ second-career game-winning drive.
Only six teams have more turnovers than the Bills, and now the team is facing the league leader in turnover differential. Buffalo can’t even get many productive snaps out of its former 1st round pick Kaiir Elam, who will be a healthy scratch this game in favor of Josh Norman. Norman is two months away from turning 36 and is eight years removed from his last Pro Bowl season.
With injuries to Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones (all top 10 defenders for Buffalo this season according to PFF grade), scrappy Baker and the Bucs should keep this a single-possession game.
Pick: Tampa Bay +10, Win: Buffalo
Week 8 Dice Throws
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) v Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love and the Pack have been one of my personal biggest disappointments of the 2023 season. Losing to Denver to fall 2–4 instead of pushing themselves to 3–3 in the thick of a wildcard spot, yikes that was rough to watch.
But Jordan Love is excellent vs the blitz this season. He’s the 12th best QB against the blitz, according to PFF, with zero interceptions, a bottom 10 lowest turnover worthy play rate and the 6th highest big time throw percentage.
With no Justin Jefferson in sight, and the Packers starting to get a little healthier (WR Christian Watson, RB Aaron Jones, OG Elgton Jenkins, CB Jaire Alexander and LB De’Vondre Campbell are all set to return), I like the Packers bouncing back against a team riding high on a short week.
Two weeks ago, in Chicago’s Soldier Field, Cousins produced just 181 yards passing on 31 attempts. Now, two weeks later, Cousins has to battle outdoors in Lambeau Field. Minnesota is one of five teams with a -5 turnover differential, giving this Packers defense plenty of opportunities to swipe the ball from the Vikings — Green Bay is 30th in EPA gained from turnovers created on defense.
Pick: Green Bay +1.5, Win: Green Bay
New Orleans Saints (-1) v Indianapolis Colts
Derek Carr is back on the road, where he is 5–15 ATS as a road favorite in his career. The Saints have won just ONE game in its last five after starting 2–0.
I faded Gardner Minshew against the vaunted Cleveland defense, and he torched them alongside some broken plays and great coaching from Shane Steichen. Now he faces another man-heavy defense, and I really like how this Colts team is playing.
But the Colts play in a dome, so weather isn’t a factor, and the team has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns to backs this season (second-most in the NFL). Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara is getting the ball more than any RB in the league. Minshew has been sacked 12 times and has thrown four interceptions, I just don’t see him knocking off two top-five defenses in a row.
The Saints are 8–2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. Colts, and 12–5 straight up against AFC South teams. I like NOLA in this 09 Super Bowl rematch.
Pick: New Orleans -1, Win: New Orleans
New York Jets (-3) v New York Giants
The Giants’ bid to be a back-to-back playoff team is all but over, but this is the situation I like them in. A frisky underdog with an adult at quarterback.
The Tyrod Taylor-led Giants are much more competitive. Losing by 5, winning by 7, keeping scoring low, this Giants defense is no longer getting cooked, and Zach Wilson will continue that trend. Taylor has 0 INTs and 0 fumbles while posting a 26–26–1 career win-loss record.
Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal are returning for the Giants’ o-line, and I like the 3 points in a contested matchup between two backup QBs.
Pick: New York Giants +3, Win: New York Giants
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) v Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin magic. Outdoors in Pittsburgh. A little rain to boot? Man, this game already has the feeling of a sluggy dogfight that’s played in the muck and the mud.
The last time Jacksonville won six games in a row was…last year? Heading into the playoffs. This team has been able to string 4–6 game win streaks before, but this Jacksonville team was a 2.5 underdog just last week v New Orleans. Are the Steelers 5.5 points worse than New Orleans? Absolutely not.
Let’s use this stat again for this game. Since 2000, road favorites off a 10-day rest are just 34–43 ATS, good for 44%. In the first half of the season, that number drops even lower to 27%. And we’re talking Tomlin here, with WR Diontae Johnson returning, and the o-line improving.
Lawrence is just 4–7 ATS as a favorite in his NFL career, while Mike Tomlin is 17–5 ATS as a home underdog in his career.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3, Win: Pittsburgh
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) v Tennessee Titans
Tennessee just shed Kevin Byard for pennies on the dollar, and more rumors swirl about the futures of Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins.
Ryan Tannehill is the 18th-best QB according to PFF grade (which seems generous to be honest), but this is also revealing how bad Tannehill’s backups are. Levis and Willis are both getting action? This could be a disaster against a team that has allowed 18.7 points a game in its last three.
Desmond Ridder continues to be the team’s biggest headache — apart from head coach Arthur Smith ruining people’s fantasy weeks — as he’s committed nine turnovers in the last month. Three turnovers in three of the last four games, if he can keep it clean, Atlanta should run over this team.
Tampa Bay and Tennessee have the same defense (#22 and #23 on PFF), and Atlanta held on despite the fluky turnovers and no Bijan Robinson. Atlanta will win in another weird one.
Pick: Atlanta -2.5, Win: Atlanta
Los Angeles Rams (+7) v Dallas Cowboys
Big favorites are 5–10 ATS in the last three seasons off a bye, and just 47% ATS since 2000. And this Cowboys team is a squad I don’t put a lot of value in when using its bye.
The four offenses this illustrious Cowboys defense has beaten: the Giants, the Jets, the Pats and the Chargers — and that Chargers team featured Herbert with a broken finger and no Mike Williams.
Dallas’ defense is 26th in EPA over the middle of the field, and Stafford has the 3rd highest attempt rate over the middle, mainly because Cooper Kupp and Pakua Nacua thrive in that part of the field.
Fun fact, this is the single largest spread against Stafford and Kupp since the duo joined up in LA.
Pick: Los Angeles +7, Win: Los Angeles
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) v Seattle Seahawks
This Seahawks team will go as far as Geno Smith will take them, but I keep favoring them (local bias aside) because this team is so well thought out beyond the QB situation. An effective run game despite offensive line issues, tons of WR talent, a pass rush that has seven players with multiple sacks, a young, but talented secondary, and Hall of Famer Bobby Wagner having another All-Pro season.
It just comes down to Smith, who has 7 TDs against 4 INTs and the 11th QB in terms of passer rating and QBR.
Cleveland’s defense was absolutely exposed by Gardner Minshew (maybe more so by Shane Steichen). The defense should bounce back, but on the offensive side, QB P.J. Walker has ranked 56th out of 61 qualified QBs in EPA per dropback and 59th in success rate since the start of 2022.
This Browns team is too undermatched to beat this Seahawks team on the road. And yes, Seattle has all eyes on San Francisco and Sam Darnold’s play for a chance to steal the lead in the NFC West.
Pick: Seattle -3.5, Win: Seattle
Baltimore Ravens (-10) v Arizona Cardinals
Bill Simmons of The Ringer proposed a theory that each time a team dominates one week for a chance to take the league’s throne, the team immediately implodes.
San Francisco beat LAR by 7 after dusting Pittsburgh, Dallas lost to Arizona after two dominant wins, Miami loses by 28 after hanging 70 on Denver only for the Bills to lay an egg in London against Jacksonville. New Orleans shut out New England 34–0 only to lose 20–13 to Houston.
Now Baltimore tore the Lions apart. What’s next? Could Arizona go 2–15 with wins against Dallas and Baltimore? Kyler Murray is still a week away while James Connor remains on IR.
According to some sharps on Twitter, a 7+ point road favorite off a 30+ point win in the first half of the season are just 6–11 ATS (35%). Home underdogs of 7+ cover at a 59% clip ATS since 2000, but in the last four years, those teams are covering at a 70% clip.
Pick: Arizona +10, Win: Arizona
Chicago Bears (+9.5) v Los Angeles Chargers
Backing a Bears team anchored by QB Tyson Bagent, RB Roschon Johnson, WRs D.J. Moore and Darnell Mooney, and TE Cole Kmet, yikes that sounds awful. But I’m going to anyway.
Here’s the scoring differentials in each Chargers game: -2, -3, +4, +7, -3, and -14. Has this team, with a hobbled Justin Herbert and no Mike Williams (check the advanced stats on how much this team struggles without him), proven it can cover a near-10 point spread? Austin Ekeler also seems stiff despite his return.
Bagent was efficient last week, going 21/29 for just 162 yards and a PFF grade of 74.5. He was also credited with 0 turnover-worthy plays. Now Bagent, remember he was the sixth highest graded QB in the preseason, gets to play the fifth-worst coverage team in the NFL.
Only two of the last eight favorites of 7 or more on Sunday Night Football have covered in this spot since the start of last year.
Pick: Chicago +9.5, Win: Los Angeles
Week 8 Stay Aways
Houston Texans (-3) v Carolina Panthers
Is Houston a really competitive six-win team this year? Or a team flirting with the playoffs at 9–8? This next short stretch will truly determine this with matchups against Tampa Bay, Cincinnati and Arizona following Carolina.
Since 2000, winless teams coming off of a bye against a team not winless is 63% ATS. When both teams are coming off a bye in this situation, the number jumps to 66%. This trend, alongside Houston’s inexperience and Carolina’s decision to switch play callers — leaving very little game tape for Houston to go off of — makes me very worried about betting on the Texans.
Carolina is coming off losses to Seattle, Minnesota, Detroit and Miami. This is the easiest (or 2nd easiest) opponent the Panthers have faced since New Orleans, and even that defense is more impressive than what Houston is throwing out there.
I’m not a big fan of Frank Reich as a head coach, but he is 4–0 straight up and 3–0–1 ATS off a bye as a head coach.
Pick: Carolina +3, Win: Carolina
New England Patriots (+9.5) v Miami Dolphins
Mac Jones is 0-5 ATS against the Dolphins in his career, while Tua remains undefeated against Bill Belichick and is 15-5 ATS at home in his career.
New England played its best game of the season against the Bills, but are they capable of this play two weeks in a row? Especially after the Dolphins got slapped around by Philly on prime time. Miami defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is just 4–5 lifetime against Bill Belichick, but this time he gets Jalen Ramsey at his disposal.
A strong front seven is required to beat this Dolphins team, just look at what the healthier Bills and Eagles showed out with. Pressuring Tua without sending six or more defenders. Problem is, New England has a bottom-three pass rush with Matthew Judon on IR.
Pick: Miami -9.5, Win: Miami
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) v Washington Commanders
A 16-point loss. An 11-point win. A three-point loss in overtime. No matter what, the Commanders show up when battling the division-rival Eagles.
Jalen Hurts will most likely be playing in some sort of walking boot. Will the Brotherly Shove be as effective with Hurts battling a lower leg injury? Will he be able to properly scramble?
Jalen Hurts is just 9–14 ATS on the road in his career while Ron Rivera is 24–15 ATS as a dog in divisional games.
Pick: Washington +7, Win: Philadelphia
Kansas City Chiefs (-8) v Denver Broncos
Denver burned me a few weeks ago when the team lost by 11 on a 10.5 spread. Bully for me, but Denver has been a lot more competitive in October, especially after the disaster against Miami.
Last two weeks, Denver has allowed 18.0 points per game. Last four weeks? 23.8. Over the course of the full season? 31.0. This team is improving.
Kansas City is 13–0 straight up in his career as a division road favorite. But this Chiefs team, and the last few in particular, is just 4–6 ATS as a road favorite of 3 or more points and just 3–5 ATS when favored by 7 or more points.
Fun fact, excluding the Miami rout, Denver has a +1 point differential on the season.
Pick: Denver +8, Win: Kansas City
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) v Cincinnati Bengals
Brock Purdy is getting closer and closer to being cleared, so this number might jump a little more by Sunday morning. Despite Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow using this much-needed bye to get up close to 100% health-wise, road underdogs are just 6–11 ATS off a bye.
No run defense has allowed more explosive runs than the Bengals, which spells disaster when facing CMC and Kyle Shanahan. LT Trent Williams is expected to play as well.
SF has covered 10 straight games when playing at home, and with no Darnold under center, I’m expecting the trend to continue. This is the lowest we’ll be able to get these 49ers off of two losses in a row.
Pick: San Francisco -3.5, Win: San Francisco
Los Angeles Raiders (+8) v Detroit Lions
David Montgomery has been ruled out once more, but the Lions still have the 8th best rushing attack in football, and now get to face the 28th rushing defense.
The Raiders are 30th in adjusted line yards, 31st in rush EPA allowed, and 31st in success rate. They’re ceding an average of 4.4 yards per carry (22nd) and rank 21st in power success, allowing conversions 70% of the time.
With Detroit playing at home, Jared Goff has nine total touchdowns and two interceptions at home compared to four scores and two picks on the road this year. For the Raiders offense, only the Giants and Patriots average fewer points per game than Vegas.
Las Vegas is 0–3 on the road and has been outscored 92–39 in those games.
Pick: Detroit -8, Win: Detroit