2023 Week 9 NFL Picks
Update: Monday Night Football
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) v New York Jets
The Chargers ranked #5 in EPA and #4 in success rate in the first three weeks of the season. Then Mike Williams went down. Whether or not you think he’s valuable as a wide receiver, he is valuable in opening up this offense for Herbert and company. The Chargers ahve ranked 18th in EPA but just 30th in success rate in the NFL since his injury.
Not to mention his backup, Jordan Palmer, is also on IR. So Keenan Allen will be blanketed by Sauce Gardner or DJ Reed. A lot of room for Ekeler to feast right? Well he’s averaging 2.3 yards a carry since returning from his absence. He does have 12 catches in huis last three games.
I like how this Jets defense lines up against the Chargers, especially with Herbert nursing a finger injury. Herbert is 17–18–1 ATS as a favorite, which only makes this more of a toss up. With 3.5 points, I’ll take them because this might be quite the grit-n-grind game.
Pick: New York +3.5, Win: New York
Thursday Night Football
Tennessee Titans (+2.5) v Pittsburgh Steelers
You guys know better than to bet and wager on TNF, but we still have to chart everything. This game comes down to what can Will Levis do on a short week against this adult Steelers defense after firing off 240 passing yards and 4 TDs.
I got burned by Tyson Bagent pretty badly in his follow-up after his hot debut, but it alerted me to a trend I shouldn’t have ignored. Success rate for non-1st Rd rookie QBs who jump in midseason drops from 49% to 37%. And that doesn’t take into account the short week. Or Tomlin’s 7–3 ATS record as a night favorite of 3 or less. Or Tomlin’s 46–30 ATS record coming off a loss where he failed to cover the prior week.
I’m fading the rookie gunslinger’s hot start.
Pick: Pittsburgh -2.5, Win: Pittsburgh
Week 9 Locks
Miami Dolphins (+1.5) v Kansas City Chiefs
We’ve spent a lot of time talking about Kansas City’s failure to cover spreads of more than 4, but KC is 11–5 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite of 3 or less in Mahomes’ career. League average in the last five years? 44% ATS.
Tua has one of the largest discrepancies in passer rating without pressure versus passer rating while being pressured. It hasn’t mattered this year because he has one of the fastest releases in the league — paired with two of the fastest receivers — but KC defensive coordinator Steve Spagnola has a myriad of complex blitz schemes to throw at the Dolphins’ weak o-line.
This is a bounce-back game for the Chiefs. This is a revenge game for both Kansas City and Tyreek Hill, but the Chiefs are in the top 10 in the least amount of explosive plays allowed.
Additionally, favorites in international games are 27–15 ATS while Tua is just 10–11 straight up when away from Hard Rock Stadium.
Pick: Kansas City -1.5, Win: Kansas City
Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) v Atlanta Falcons
Here’s a crazy stat Twitter brought to me: QBs making their mid-season debut against a bottom-10 ranked pass defense have gone 8–0–1 against the spread. Want more? QBs making their debuts on the road are 8–2–2 ATS. QBs who are underdogs of over a FG are 11–3–2 ATS.
We always overreact to the QB change, but against this Falcons secondary, why does it matter? Jordan Addison is still lining up alongside Hockenson. And this Atlanta team has a pretty elite run defense, which Minnesota ignores already! We just saw it with Will Levis before he came back to Earth v Pittsburgh.
As much as I like Taylor Heinicke, he finished with the 3rd-worst PFF grade among starting QBs against the blitz, and defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves to blitz. It’s not like we can trust this Atlanta team to cover this spread anyway right?
Pick: Minnesota +4.5, Win: Atlanta
Washington Commanders (+2.5) v New England Patriots
65 pressures and 14 sacks have been taken away from this team in the blink of an eye. With nearly 100M in cap space, more high-quality draft picks and a new aggressive ownership group at the helm, Washington’s future is looking good. Just not for tomorrow.
Washington is gutting its roster and bowing out of the playoff race (despite being much closer to the 7th seed than what they probably expected), leaving Mac Jones to pass a ton at home from a relatively clean pocket. Washington’s defense has been torched through the air, ranking 30th in EPA and 32nd in explosive passes allowed.
Fun fact, every New England opponent except for Las Vegas has ranked in the top half in pass coverage.
And, as good as Sam Howell has been as a surprise starter, he’s still on pace for an incredible amount of sacks taken. The number is more than 87 through 17 games, more than 10 more than the all-time NFL record, set by David Carr in 2002. No matter how well he’s played, he’s extremely vulnerable to tough hits.
Pick: New England -2.5, Win: New England
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) v Carolina Panthers
The Colts have the seventh-worst coverage grade, according to PFF, and multiple corners are out for this game against Carolina. And passing isn’t exactly Carolina’s weakness with Adam Theilen turning back the clock every week.
The defense as a whole for Carolina is slowly starting to improve and they’ve held their last two opponents, MIA and HOU, to a success rate below their season averages. Not to mention, Carolina has four straight top-12 offenses prior to last week. This is by far Bryce Young’s easiest challenge.
Overall, as much as I like Gardner Minshew, I don’t like him as a favorite going against the former №1 pick with the worst defense he’s faced.
Pick: Carolina +2.5, Win: Carolina
New York Giants (+1.5) v Las Vegas Raiders
An emotional team with stars is hosting a 2–6 team with an interim head coach. Rich Bisaccia got the win as an interim after Jon Gruden was fired the previous week. Romeo Crennel won 30–14 against Jacksonville after Bill O’Brien was fired from Houston.
And the greatest example of this? Head coach JEFF SATURDAY won his first game as a coach 25–20 against the Raiders before losing seven straight.
Aiden O’Connell already has a little bit of experience, and has Devante Adams and Josh Jacobs to lean against.
I liked this Giants team more when Tyrod Taylor was under center. Daniel Jones has seven turnovers in five games against just three total TDs.
Pick: Las Vegas (-1.5), Win: Las Vegas
Week 9 Dice Throws
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) v Houston Texans
This is a nice spot for Houston, coming off a deflating loss to the once-defeated Panthers. Houston has only one home loss this season, back in Week 2 when Indianapolis had a different QB under center.
Dameon Pierce is out for Houston, but that may work out well. Both teams are dreadful at running the ball, but Singletary has been more efficient than Pierce and now can get the majority of touches.
Tampa Bay was performing well when Baker Mayfield was scrambling and making heroic plays to convert 3rd downs. That style is obviously regressing at this point in the season. This team hasn’t scored more than 20 in a month. With how these two clubs are looking, I’m taking the QB with more upside.
Todd Bowles is just 21–29–3 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career.
Pick: Houston -2.5, Win: Houston
Dallas Cowboys (+3) v Philadelphia Eagles
Philly has failed to cover a game when favored by 3.5 or less (including when underdogs) just once since the start of 2022 — the friggin Super Bowl. Remember that Jalen Hurts is 21–2 over his last two regular seasons.
Dak Prescott doesn’t possess the same winning mentality. Dak has not beaten a team that’s better than .500 on the road as an underdog since Week 2 of 2021, when they beat LAC by 3.
Since 2020, Dallas is 1–7 SU and 2–6 ATS as an underdog with Dak.
The Eagles’ offensive line is healthy, Jalen Carter is suiting up, and Kevin Byard is already playing for the squad. Meanwhile, offensive tackle Tyron Smith is out for Dallas.
Dallas has proven to be the king of beating up on bad teams, taking the crown from Buffalo in the process, but this Eagles team is too good and talented for their injured defense to handle.
Pick: Philadelphia -3, Win: Philadelphia
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) v Cincinnati Bengals
It’s never seemed that the Bills were a good matchup against Burorw and Cincy. They were in full control of the game Damar Hamlin went down in, and then completed the bout in the playoffs. And that’s all we have to go off because they haven’t played since 2019 before those two matches.
Burrow was the best quarterback in the league last week, and has now won three in a row as he, and Tee Higgins, have gotten healthier. He’s also a ridiculous 19–3–1 ATS in his last 22 games vs. non-divisional opponents.
The Bengals’ defense isn’t jumping off the page statistically, but the unit has accumulated 21 sacks and 10 interceptions this season. The Bengals’ opponents have also converted just 42.8% of their third-down attempts.
The Bills’ last road win was Week 3 against the Commanders in Washington.
Pick: Cincinnati -2.5, Win: Cincinnati
Week 9 Stay Aways
Seattle Seahawks (+6) v Baltimore Ravens
This number has truly exploded, making it really questionable to bet on. This Seahawks team is good, but Lamar is now 17–1 against the NFC and is red hot. Doesn’t help that this is a West Coast team traveling east for a 1 p.m. game.
But the Ravens have had a tough time covering large spreads. Since 2021, the Ravens have gone just 4–14 ATS when favored by more than a field goal. Doesn’t help that Hawks coach Pete Carroll is 53–38 ATS as a dog in his career alongside Geno Smith’s 20–15 underdog record against the spread.
Baltimore has the 3rd-highest rated defense on PFF this season, but Seattle is right there at 7. Offensively, these two teams rank 7th (Seattle) and 9th (Baltimore). It’s just too close to think one of these teams will win by a full touchdown, especially since this Seattle team could easily backdoor cover with all of its explosive skill position players.
Pick: Seattle +6, Win: Baltimore
Arizona Cardinals (+11) v Cleveland Browns
What am I supposed to write about here? A couple of weeks ago I was writing about a QB who had the literal same name as Joe Pesci’s character in Goodfellas, and now I’m supposed to bet on Clayton Tune? Fuck outta here!
Deshaun Watson has thrown five passes in over a month, completing just as many to the defense as he did to the offense. He takes a lot of sacks (12 in three games he threw 29 or more passes this season), turns the ball over like crazy, and we know Arizona plays hard on defense.
But Cleveland’s defense is still ferocious, and should feast on a team that is already packing it in. Three of the Cardinals’ last five games have resulted in less than 17 points. I can’t imagine what Clayton Tune will be able to muster.
Pick: Cleveland -11, Win: Cleveland
Los Angeles Rams (+3) v Green Bay Packers
If I’m sounding frustrated in my writing, it’s because this is another dumb QB matchup on deck. Brett Rypien versus Jordan Love, whoopie for all of us NFL fans. I was dead wrong on this Packers team, who can’t support a three-year redshirted QB to at least flirt with .500 — which would be in contention for the 7th spot in the NFC playoffs.
We’ve been on this beat for the Rams before. Smart team, a lot of savvy veterans and a great head coach, but there’s no protection or depth. The defense is getting exposed as it’s incredibly novice and young, while the offensive line can’t protect its statue-esque QB.
So I’m going down with the Packers once more, continuing to believe this team is more talented than the way they are playing. Please don’t join me and stay away from this sad game.
(I want it on the record this bet is nullified if Stafford plays)
Pick: Green Bay -3, Win: Green Bay
Chicago Bears (+8) v New Orleans Saints
New Orleans has one by 8 or more just twice this season, so a spread of this size is an automatic stay away when it comes to New Orleans.
Chicago traded a 2024 second-round draft pick to Washington for defensive end Montez Sweat, who has 6.5 sacks on the season. He’s supposedly suiting up for Chicago this week while the Bears work to sign him to a long-term deal.
Meanwhile, Derek Carr is still notoriously awful when forced to cover as a favorite. He’s just 6–17 ATS as a favorite of more than three points and 1–3 ATS as a favorite of more than seven points, something we’ve tracked throughout this season.
Pick: Chicago +8, Win: Chicago