2023 NFL Week 10 Picks

Germany Game

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) v New England Patriots

I was wrong about New England last week, who averaged 4.2 yards per play once you take away Rhamondre Stevenson’s 64-yard TD run, and this happened without Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

Do we bank on New England bouncing back overseas against another weak defense? (The Colts rank 20th in overall defense on PFF.) I don’t think so, as the Colts have at least forced some takeaways as of late, generating six over its last three games.

Bill Belichick is undefeated in international games, but hasn’t played one since losing Tom Brady. Germany loves Bill and his Pats, but this Colts’ offense (averaging nearly 26 points a game) is too much to overcome as the New England offense can’t string together consecutive scoring drives at this point.

Look at the QBs New England is losing to this season. Sam Howell. Jimmy G. 32-year-old Derek Carr?

Pick: Indianapolis -2, Win: Indianapolis

Week 10 Locks

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has lost four in a row — three of those games being one-score losses — and is still favored?? Will Levis remains an unknown at this point, but it’s still a Mike Vrabel v Todd Bowles matchup.

Here are some stats Twitter whipped up on Tampa Bay’s secondary. Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in explosive pass % allowed, 29th in completion % and 31st in TDs allowed on 20+ yard pass plays in the NFL. Have you seen Will Levis’ arm? That ball is going to fly.

Additionally, Baker Mayfield has had zero run help to alleviate the pressure of moving the offense downfield. Rachaad White has less than 400 yards on the ground through 8 games, and has 3 TDs against 1 fumble. Minimum 10 carries, Baker Mayfield leads the team in yards per carry at 3.5.

Pick: Tennessee +1, Win: Tennessee

Atlanta Falcons (-2) v Arizona Cardinals

We, as a collective here, have bet and wagered against A LOT of bad quarterbacks this year. Too many. How can I say no to Kyler Murray getting points against this Falcons team? A Falcons team that has won by more than 2 just twice this season.

Taylor Heinecke has graded 25th out of 29 QBs in PFF grade last week with a 7% turnover-worthy play rate. I really thought this team could find its groove with a capable, gutsy game manager, but Arthur Smith is losing this team fast. A three-game losing streak would have fans out with pitchforks, furious that this club is blowing it in such a winnable division.

Arizona is 3–1 against the spread at home. And that mark happened against opponents like Cincinnati, Dallas and Baltimore. Now they have Kyler Murray, who can at least run around and add another dimension to this offense.

According to Twitter sharps, Atlanta is just 5–15 against the spread in its last 20 games.

Pick: Arizona +2, Win: Arizona

Detroit Lions (-2.5) v Los Angeles Chargers

Detroit is healthy, coming off a bye, and will have plenty of fans in the stands of the Chargers’ sun-filled stadium. Goff outdoors in bad weather might be a problem I like to fade, but that’s not an issue here.

David Montgomery alongside a developing Jahmyr Gibbs will milk the clock in Ben Johnson’s offense, something we’ve already seen when this roster is at full strength.

But LAC’s offense feels cooked. Mike Williams is out. His replacement, Josh Palmer, just joined him on IR. His replacement, rookie Quentin Johnston, is simply not ready to be productive for a full three-hour game.

LAC’s offense is closer to Vegas than Detroit, with two stars (Ekeler, K. Allen) carrying an overall mediocre roster alongside a bad head coach (no longer a Vegas problem now).

Additionally, Justin Herbert is working through a season featuring the second-worst passer rating of his career, the lowest amount of passing yards per game, and the second lowest TD% of his career.

Pick: Detroit -2.5, Win: Detroit

Denver Broncos (+7) v Buffalo Bills

Who’s played better in the last five weeks? Denver has scored 103 points (20.6) over the last five games while allowing 104 (20.8), going 3–2 in that stretch. How about Buffalo? The Bills have scored 101 points (20.2) while giving up 105 (21.0) total points.

These teams are way closer than the 7-point spread acknowledges, even with Buffalo at home.

But according to FOX Sports, the Bills have a 78.9% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline. I just don’t agree with those metrics, and even if they win, Buffalo is only 3–6 against the spread.

And to keep this game close, Josh Allen is tied for second in the league in turnovers, while Russell Wilson is tied for 19th, just seven overall turnovers.

Pick: Denver +7, Win: Denver

Week 10 Dice Throws

New Orleans Saints (-3) v Minnesota Vikings

Josh Dobbs is this year’s Geno Smith, and it’s an incredible story. But look at the roster. Justin Jefferson is questionable, but signs and quotes point to him sitting one more week. Cam Akers is done after trading for him. LT Christian Darrisaw is still questionable after missing last week and TE TJ Hockenson is battling through a painful rib injury.

Lastly, KJ Osborn took a devastating hit and will probably not play this week. Against this Saints’ defense — ranked 4th according to PFF while allowing 19.0 points a game (7th least) — it might be too much for Dobbs to overcome despite his “throw him in there and watch him work” heroics.

Dobbs is a great QB to come up and disrupt a defensive game plan, but when teams are expecting him to suit up, it’s a different story. Since week 5, Dobbs has generated the 2nd worst EPA and 4th worst success rate in the NFL. I’m fading him against this consistent defense while the offense starts to show signs of life (three 20+ point games in a row compared to 2 in the team’s first 6 games).

Pick: New Orleans -3, Win: New Orleans

Houston Texans (+6.5) v Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow has generated a 55%+ success rate in four straight games, and that schedule includes Seattle, SF, Buffalo…and Arizona. Joey Brrr is back! And the Bengals are cooking.

If Cincy’s pass rush overwhelms rookie CJ Stroud and the team’s middling offensive line, so be it. But Houston can keep up in a shootout, and Cincinnati is deeply missing Jessie Bates, one of the highest-rated defensive backs in the league this season now playing for Atlanta.

Houston is 8th overall in cover rate, while Cincinnati is 30th. In a season full of quarterback performance duds, CJ put on an absolute show. A backdoor cover down 13 with 4 minutes is totally in play with this team, even with Nico Collins just ruled out.

Tee Higgins is out and Ja’Marr Chase is questionable with a back injury. I like Houston for the cover.

Pick: Houston +6.5, Win: Cincinnati

San Francisco 49ers (-3) v Jacksonville Jaguars

The 49ers got their bye at the perfect time, allowing both LT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel time to get healthy while Shanahan regroups this team that has lost three in a row.

But, oddly enough, Brock Purdy has been really good in his last two games. Purdy’s 63.5% success rate in his last two games is 8% higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is turnovers. 5 interceptions and a fumble lost in his last three games did this team in, and Jacksonville has 18 takeaways this season.

I like this Jacksonville team, but getting the 49ers at just -3 is too good to pass up. Brock Purdy is 2nd in QBR, while Trevor Lawrence is just 13th, a spot behind CJ Stroud and 2 above Baker Mayfield.

Pick: San Francisco -3, Win: San Francisco

Washington Commanders (+6) v Seattle Seahawks

Time for Seattle to get a travel advantage. Since 2000, when a team on normal rest is playing in Seattle on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back road trip, those teams are just 15–23 ATS (39%).

Now Seattle gets to play in front of a crowd with an improved defensive line (Leonard Williams joining the front four) against a quarterback still on pace for crushing the all-time sack record. It’s a bad way to gamble, but it does feel like he’s running out of hits from 300+ pound defensive tackles.

This is a bounce-back week for Seattle, who plays an emotional type of football through Pete Carroll. Three of the team’s five wins have been by double digits, and this team will look to get its offense back into a groove.

Washington could only pressure Mac Jones on 10 of 46 dropbacks last week. Geno is 7th in yards per attempt (ypa) and 16th out of 37 QBs in PFF grade when his pocket remains clean. He’s just 21st in ypa when pressured.

Pick: Seattle -6, Win: Seattle

New York Jets (-1.5) v Las Vegas Raiders

Are the Jets really going 5–4 this year? Bear in mind, despite the improved roster, Zach Wilson is playing WORSE this year than last. Lower QBR, lower TD%, lower success rate. I feel that this locker room is ready to combust while the Raiders are playing with a fire in their gut.

Zach Wilson was pressured on 25 of 58 dropbacks last week. Now he gets to face Maxx Crosby, who has logged a 91.7 defensive grade according to PFF — third behind Myles Garrett and Nick Bosa.

Additionally, East Coast teams traveling west in this spot are just 7–12 against the spread since 2000, good for just 37%.

Breece Hall should exploit a poor run defense, but I don’t want to judge this team’s performance under Josh McDaniels too much. I’m riding the new coach theory for a second week!

Pick: Las Vegas +1.5, Win: Las Vegas

Week 10 Stay Aways

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) v Baltimore Ravens

As one of the biggest Lamar Jackson fans around, Baltimore still scares me as a significant favorite despite the scorched-earth approach they’ve taken to football.

Lamar is just 19–29 ATS as a favorite of more than 3.5 points, including a 1–3 mark against the spread this year. And this is a defense very familiar with Lamar, unlike his recent NFC competition. The Browns have kept scores within 6 in three of the last four matchups when Lamar has started.

In its last 10 home games, no opponent has scored more than 22 against this Baltimore defense, which is incredibly troubling for a quarterback like Deshaun Watson — who just sucks.

But this is a divisional matchup between two playoff teams. Home favorites of under 7 points playing a divisional opponent cover the spread just 44% of the time. Expect this one to be close.

Pick: Cleveland +6.5, Win: Baltimore

Dallas Cowboys (-16.5) v New York Giants

Any given Sunday, one team can beat another. Too many times we underrate an underdog when, in the end, they’re all professional athletes.

I don’t think I can ride with the massive underdog here. Get your shine box Tommy DeVito, you’re toast. Doesn’t help that Darren Waller is on IR, Evan Neal is still banged up, and CB Adoree Jackson is expected to be out too.

This Cowboys team will be motivated after a loss last week. This Cowboys team can crush bad teams with the best of them. Dan Quinn will eat Tommy DeVito for lunch. DeVito is 17/27 combined over two games, has been sacked 8 times, and has led the Giants to just 13 points.

I want nothing to do with this game. Neither should you. And it’s impossible for Tommy DeVito to light it up because he’s not facing my fantasy team this week.

Also, we are seeing the largest margin of error since 2014 this season. We got to buck trends when the league changes.

Pick: Dallas -16.5, Win: Dallas

Green Bay Packers (+3) v Pittsburgh Steelers

The Packers won 20–3 against Brett Rypien and the Rams, but even that score is somewhat misleading as it was a lot harder for Green Bay to put that injury-riddled roster down for good.

Pittsburgh’s offense is much better with Diontae Johnson, and now the team’s run game — with a yin-yang duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren — is finally turning out productive games.

For Green Bay, Jordan Love completed fewer than 60% of his passes, averaging only 6.6 yards per completion. During the Packers’ recent four-game losing streak, Love threw seven interceptions.

Both teams struggle in the first half, but Green Bay is going to have a much more difficult time overcoming a deficit compared to Pittsburgh. Also, we have to mention Mike Tomlin Magic, which is something Matt LeFleur doesn’t have.

Pick: Pittsburgh -3, Win: Pittsburgh