2023 NFL Week 11 Picks
Week 11 Locks
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) v Houston Texans
Kyler is back and looked pretty damn good in his 2023 debut. Now he gets Houston’s 20th-ranked defense, according to PFF. Murray already ranked 4th among QBs in terms of running with the football.
Additionally, the Cardinals also have James Conner back from IR and Trey McBride looks like one of the most explosive young TEs in football. This feels like a great week to fade Houston in favor of an offense with very little game tape on film.
Houston’s defense has faced three top-half offenses this season: Baltimore, Cincinnati and Tampa. In those games, Houston gave up a combined 89 points (29.7 average).
Houston has captured the hearts of most football fans, mainly because CJ Stroud is giving fans what they want: Awesome QB play. But this is the same team that lost to the defeated Carolina Panthers three weeks ago.
Pick: Arizona +5.5, Win: Arizona
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) v Cleveland Browns
Dorian Thompson-Robinson is set to make his second start of the season, which makes me immediately want to jump on Pittsburgh, but it’s fair to state that Thompson-Robinson had no idea he was facing Baltimore until mere moments before the game. Now, at least he has a couple of days to prepare.
But Pittsburgh is 6–3 and is still an underdog against a rookie QB?? Gimme those Steelers! The Mike Tomlin formula is working and the offense is starting to look better…? TE Pat Freiermuth is rejoining Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, while Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris have haphazardly formed a pretty nasty RB duo (both are threats in the passing game as well).
I think Mike Tomlin is a much better coach than Kevin Stefanski (despite the hardware) and despite Kenny Pickett’s issues under center, I’m taking him over unknown talent Thompson-Robinson.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3, Win: Pittsburgh
Dallas Cowboys (-11) v Carolina Panthers
A home underdog of 10+ covers 65% of the time (since 2000) when the opponent has a divisional opponent the following week. Bear in mind, that the following matchup is against the Commanders on Thanksgiving. Tldr? Be wary of a trap game!
Dallas has a reputation for beating up the bad and the lame, but this situation literally happened earlier this year against Arizona. While I’m not banking on a Bryce Young upset here, a cover definitely seems in play.
After Carolina’s bye, its defense has only given up 14 points a game and three total TDs, including a 15–13 win over the Houston Texans, a game no one wants to remember it seems. The team’s zone-heavy scheme might spoil Dak Prescott’s hot streak, who tends to struggle in comparison to man-heavy defenses.
Pick: Carolina +11, Win: Dallas
Seattle Seahawks (+2) v Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks are underdogs despite having a three-game lead over the Rams this year? Oooh, maybe it’s because of the Rams’ excruciatingly difficult home-field advantage for the Hawks to overcome in sunny LA with more Seattle fans than Rams fans in the stands.
Sean McVay has an 8–5 record against Pete Carroll, including a postseason victory and this year’s Week 1 upset. But that loss should only fuel Seattle to draw even with LA before a daunting four-game schedule, much like Washington taking care of business against the NY Giants.
Who didn’t play in Week 1 for Seattle? Just Devon Witherspoon, Jamal Adams, a healthy Charles Cross and Abe Lucas on the offensive line alongside Jason Peters (one pressure in 35 snaps last week), Zach Charbonnet, Leonard Williams and Frank Clark. And with a Rams team that has stars and flimsy depth, the injuries are starting to become apparent.
It’s a bad matchup for Seattle, but with a better roster and as an underdog in a non-threatening stadium, can’t pass this up.
Pick: Seattle +2, Win: Seattle
Week 11 Dice Throws
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) v Jacksonville Jaguars
Rookie quarterback Will Levis ranks 36th out of 39 qualifying QBs in PFF grade against the blitz. Guess what? The Jacksonville Jaguars blitz a lot, ranking 10th in blitz rate.
After throwing 4 TDs in his league debut, Levis has thrown 0 TDs and 2 INTs over his last two games while taking 8 sacks. His last two passer ratings combined fail to hit the number he reached in his debut (130.5).
The Titans are also playing its third straight road game, which is especially tough when your WR corps is carried by 31-year-old DeAndre Hopkins. No other WR averages more than 32 yards a game.
Lastly, is there extra motivation for a playoff team after the recent play by Buffalo and the injuries that struck Cincinnati and Cleveland? The AFC is as open as it gets with Mahomes, Lamar, Burrow, Allen, Herbert and more lurking year after year.
Pick: Jacksonville -6.5, Win: Jacksonville
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) v Green Bay Packers
Using the above theory, the pressure is on for LAC, and a couple of spots just opened up for the 2024 AFC playoffs.
The Chargers offense is thinning, with Mike Williams, Josh Palmer and Gerald Everett all out and Keenan Allen questionable with a shoulder injury. But Green Bay is even more beat up, and has been for the entire season. Corners Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes are trending toward being out alongside Safety Rudy Ford and a slew of linebackers and offensive linemen.
The Chargers have scored at least 20 points of offense in every game, excluding two games against Dallas and Kansas City. Can Green Bay keep up? Green Bay has scored 20 points just once in the last five times.
I think they can because their defense has not allowed more than 24 points since Week 4 against the Lions. Jordan Love can get right against the Chargers’ porous defense, while this Kellen Moore-ran unit loves to stall in stretches. Take the points.
Pick: Green Bay +3, Win: Green Bay
Chicago Bears (+9.5) v Detroit Lions
Justin Fields had back-to-back starts with 280+ pass yards, 4 TDs and 9.5+ ypa. Now he faces a Lions’ defense that just gave up 38 points to LAC last week.
According to Twitter sharps, since week 5 the Lions have ranked 24th in EPA and 31st in success rate allowed.
The Lions’ offense is one of the scariest units in football, but at least Montez Sweat, the Bears’ newest trade deadline acquisition, is making a difference. Sweat has generated a team-high 10 pressures since becoming a Chicago Bear.
After a wild shootout that combined for nearly 80 points in a cross-conference battle with multiple playoff consequences, maybe the Bears catch this team on a down week.
Pick: Chicago +9.5, Win: Detroit
Minnesota Vikings (+3) v Denver Broncos
Justin Jefferson has been ruled out, which sucks because I really want to see the Dobbs-Jefferson combo, but Alexander Mattison and KJ Osborn are suiting up. So at least Minnesota’s injuries are slowly depleting.
Denver has been a great team to bet on over the last few weeks due to Vegas constantly sleeping on them, but now as a favorite, it’s not nearly as appetizing as a pick.
Denver QB Russell Wilson has been much improved this season compared to last, even ranking second in the league in TD passes. But his numbers when pressured at this stage of his career show quite a discrepancy. When not pressured, he has a 79.3 PFF grade and an 80.0 grade when not blitzed. When pressured/blitzed, that number drops to 62.6 and 54.7, respectively. As previously discussed, Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme paces the league by miles.
Since Week 6, Wilson has the single lowest ADOT in the NFL (5.6), proving he’s not taking any chances deep. Against Minnesota’s offense, might be a tough strategy.
Pick: Minnesota +3, Win: Minnesota
Week 11 Stay Aways
New York Giants (+9) v Washington Commanders
Another week, another Tommy Devito game. At least these blurbs are pretty quick. According to PFF, Devito ranks 45th out of 50 QBs who’ve received a passing grade. It’s been a tough showcase.
Meanwhile, Washington remains competitive. After splitting the last two road games, Washington stands at 4–6, on track for another season of 7+ wins despite all the chaos that surrounds this franchise.
Washington lost to Tyrod Taylor earlier this year — just one of two Giants wins this year — so there’s extra motivation to wipe Devito off the face of the Earth in front of the Washington faithful. Remember, Dallas got us the cover against this team last week WITH EASE.
Pick: Washington -9, Win: Washington
Las Vegas Raiders (+11.5) v Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are coming off a bye while the Raiders just played Sunday Night prime time. Now the Raiders have to travel across the country and play a 10 a.m. game. Teams in this specific situation are just 9–14 against the spread.
Most recent example of this? SF lost to Cleveland outright.
Miami is better, is gaining rookie RB Achane and CB Jalen Ramsey continues to work towards getting back to his top form, and this team loves beating up on bad squads.
But I love underdogs when it comes to monster spreads. And this Raider team is playing hard with its new QB-HC combo. The new coach syndrome won’t extend for a third week, but should be enough to cover.
Pick: Las Vegas +11.5, Win: Miami
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+13.5) v San Francisco 49ers
Another obnoxiously large point spread makes this week a challenge. But Tampa Bay seems like a competent squad and not a rollover team. After all, Tampa Bay just held its own (offensively) against Houston before shutting down Tennessee.
Any given Sunday, I’m not going to bank on a team to lose by nearly two touchdowns, especially when it’s anchored by Baker Mayfield (who currently ranks 17th according to PFF) and not Tommy Devito.
Teams similar to SF (top-three in DVOA) that have won by 30 or more the previous week cover just 46% of the time the following week against the spread.
It’s a risk after watching this team completely dismantle Jacksonville Jaguars’ playoff roster, but perhaps Mike Evans catches a long ball against a semi-susceptible secondary to make a 17-point game a 10-point game in the 4th. Mike Evans is 10th in receiving yards and tied for fifth in receiving TDs this year fyi.
Pick: Tampa Bay +13,5, Win: San Francisco
New York Jets (+7.5) v Buffalo Bills
Zach Wilson has now gone 10 straight games with a negative EPA. This is the perfect “get right” game for Buffalo, but can the team win by 8?
Josh Allen has a career 79 passer rating against the Jets, according to StatMuse, and has lost 2 of the last 3. His passer rating in his last four contests with the Jets? 69.9.
The Jets are on an incredible 36 consecutive drive streak without scoring a TD, but the Bills have averaged 20.5 points over the last six weeks, so it’s in play that the Jets can stay close in this one, especially with the team having the second-most turnovers in the league.
A new offensive coordinator mid-season should only make this team operate smoother despite Ken Dorsey creating an offense with top-10 metrics in almost every category.
Pick: New York +7.5, Win: Buffalo
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) v Kansas City Chiefs
Andy Reid has quite the reputation coming off a bye, but against the spread, the number is just 20–18 lifetime.
But this is an incredible matchup, and if I can walk away with some points, I’ll take them. Kansas City is a real home-field advantage, but this game means more to Philadelphia after the devastating Super Bowl loss.
Speaking of motivation, Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat will have an extra chip on their shoulder to bring some pressure after being held sackless as a team in the Super Bowl. And with Philly’s trade deadline moves, recently required defensive back Kevin Byard can really hone in on Travis Kelce while the rest of the secondary can torture the limited receiving corps.
And, as great as this Kansas City defense has been, who’s really guarding and shutting down AJ Brown?
Pick: Philadelphia +3, Win: Philadelphia