2023 Week 12 NFL Picks
Thanksgiving Football
Green Bay Packers (+8) v Detroit Lions
Green Bay hasn’t been able to find its legs this year, which has been terribly disappointing for my preseason predictions. But the team is just 4–6 in a weak conference, and could go on a run to end the year to clinch a 7th-seed playoff spot with 8 or 9 wins in their pocket.
But Aaron Jones is out once again. He’s played in 7 games, but has handled just 85 touches this year. Who’s taking most of the RB touches? AJ Dillon and his 3.5 yards-per-attempt average alongside 15 receiving yards a game. He’s one of the worst running backs in the league in terms of productivity.
Meanwhile, Jared Goff showed something to everyone last week. He overcame a terrible game and gave the Lions a come-from-behind win. I don’t know if everyone counted on him having that ability in him, even against the Bears (whose defense is rising weekly).
The Lions are also going to make Thanksgiving a show. The Detroit Lions are 37–44–2 lifetime while playing for turkey legs, and haven’t won on the holiday since 2016. Now they’re 8-point favorites. A divisional matchup on a short week screams taking the cover, which is risky according to Twitter analytics, because the Packers’ run defense is 22nd in EPA and 28th in explosive runs allowed, not awesome against the Lions’ backfield and o-line.
But the Pack should be able to keep up after getting embarrassed by the Lions on a short week earlier in the year. The Lions’ offense continues to explode (almost 33 points a game last three weeks), but its defense is keeping teams lingering, and Jordan Love just might’ve turned a corner after his impressive performance last week.
Pick: Green Bay +8, Win: Detroit
Washington Commanders (+10.5) v Dallas Cowboys
The league’s leading passer in yards, Sam Howell, takes the field against Dallas. And my rule has been to take the points when there is such disparity. Divisional rivals, short week, Washington having too competent an offense to be 13+ underdogs, I normally would like Washington in this spot.
Washington is flirting with another 7+ win season, which would be the 8th time in the last 9 years the team has pulled that feat off. Pretty crazy right for a franchise that has had so much dysfunction and no legitimate quarterback.
Washington has lost badly at times this season, and stands at 0–4 within the division. This matchup against Dallas is going to be incredibly tough. Dallas averages nearly an absurd 40 points a game at home. Washington also boasts a bottom-five explosive pass rate while ranking 31st in EPA allowed over the middle of the field, where Dak loves to operate and where Ceedee Lamb has been exploding over the last few weeks.
The points are intimidating, but Thanksgiving favorites of 7+ are 9–5 against the spread (ATS) since 2000.
Pick: Dallas -10.5, Win: Dallas
San Francisco 49ers (-7) v Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has been held to 7 points or less in a half in 8 of 20 halves of football this season. That’s 40%. In 10 games, six of the second halves have had7 or fewer points scored by the Hawks. This team goes in scoring droughts, and that’s a horrible recipe against a high-flying 49ers team, especially when the Hawks QB isn’t even healthy.
No Kenneth Walker III, Geno Smith is questionable. And the 49ers are coming into town ranking first in DVOA on offense and eighth in DVOA on defense.
Brock Purdy ranks first in the following categories this season: Passer rating, completion percentage, touchdowns per attempt, yards per attempt and yards per completion. A short game (against another divisional opponent) will probably hinder those numbers, but he’s been absolutely elite this year.
Lastly, Seattle, despite being 6–4, has beaten the Lions (in Week 2, but impressive), the Panthers (led by Andy Dalton who scored 27), the New York Giants, the Arizona Cardinals (pre-Kyler Murray), the Cleveland Browns (with PJ Walker) and the Washington Commanders. Some nice wins in there, but the real challenge is here with two games against San Francisco and dates with Philly and Dallas over the next four weeks.
Pick: San Francisco -7, Win: San Francisco
Black Friday Football
Miami Dolphins (-9.5) v New York Jets
I’m not going to spend too much time on this because Tim Boyle is just…wow. In 275 career pass attempts in college over three years in Connecticut, he threw for 1 TD and 13 INTs…in 2013–2015! Not 1963–65.
In the NFL, he’s fared marginally better, but it’s almost impossible to be worse than that. In five years as a pro, he’s thrown 3 TDs against 9 INTs on 120 throws. His career passer rating is 50.9.
As long as Jalen Ramsey is ok after that big fall, he should send shivers down that offense’s spine. He’s been incredible. He has a 90.2 defensive grade across three games on PFF, including a 90.6 coverage grade.
You’d think the Jets would try to summon wins out of nothing offensively to keep their hopes high that Aaron Rodgers will salvage the lost season, but it looks like the team might be packing it in. The Jets’ defense remains stout, and it should be fun on paper to watch the second-highest-graded defense battle the second-highest-graded offense, but the Jets’ offense is much weaker than the Fins’ defense, and that’s not taking Tim Boyle into account.
Not hedging my holiday on Boyle, sorry.
Pick: Miami -9.5, Win: Miami
Week 12 Locks
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) v Cincinnati Bengals
The Buffalo Bills scored 32 points on the Jets’ 2nd-ranked defense last week after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, so the new coach theory (perfectly displayed by the Las Vegas Raiders this year) might also be consistent with coordinators too.
Now Matt Canada is no longer calling plays for this Steelers offense while the Bengals are deploying Jake Browning, who has 15 pass attempts in the NFL. This version of the Steel Curtain has its holes, but should feast on the inexperienced gunslinger. Tee Higgins is also out for the game.
Browning may have shown a little flash, including a TD throw, but inexperienced QBs facing NFL talent for a second week after a debut usually get flattened. We saw Will Levis fold to Pittsburgh after throwing for 4 TDs in his debut. Taylor Heinicke, who is much more experienced, had his passer rating drop 25% going from his first to his second game this season. Aiden O’Connell and Tyson Bagent have followed this trend as well.
Pick: Pittsburgh -2.5, Win: Pittsburgh
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) v Denver Broncos
After back-to-back prime-time performances, Vegas is starting to shine on Denver’s mid-season improvements. They’ve been one of the more successful teams to bet on after the 70–20 thumping, but now it’s time to zag the other way.
I’ve been wrong about this Cleveland team in many ways this season. The defense is as strong as one can be in this modern age of football, and it’s becoming quarterback-proof. Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) has been able to win. Watson won. Even PJ Walker won. And at least DTR can move the chains with his legs.
Russell Wilson is looking much better than last year, but it’s partially due to how controlled and conservative the offense is with him. That’s not going to work against this Cleveland defense. Wilson has the single lowest ADOT in the NFL over the last six weeks.
Denver has won a couple of games in wild fashion, and I simply don’t think that can be afforded against this caliber of defensive play.
Pick: Cleveland +2.5, Win: Cleveland
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) v Las Vegas Raiders
New coach theory about to expire? The Raiders are 3–0 against the spread since Antonio Pierce took over. Now they get the Chiefs who shockingly own the worst 2nd half scoring offense in football. Mahomes is scoring just 5.3 points in the 2nd half with his assorted weapons.
Kansas City has scored more than 21 points just once in the last five games. Those opponents ranked 32nd, 28th, 32nd, 14th and 18th in EPA. The Raiders aren’t distinctly talented, but they love this coaching staff and are playing with a fire in their belly.
KC is just 14–21 against the spread as a favorite of 7.5 or more with Mahomes’ lifetime. In contrast, the Raiders do well against the spread in Sin City. The Raiders are 14–8 against the spread at home.
Pick: Las Vegas +9.5, Win: Kansas City
Week 12 Dice Throws
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2) v Houston Texans
I don’t mean to continually fade the super fun surprise Texans squad, but this Jacksonville squad will be especially motivated to kick some ass after dropping the first bout 37–17. In that game, Jacksonville drove into Texans’ territory four out of its first five opening half drives, but ended up scoring 0 points. That won’t happen again, especially if Lawrence and Ridley play like they did last week.
This Houston defense, especially the secondary, is incredibly weak. To bank on Houston covering this spread, you’d have to believe Trevor Lawrence will be off his game and miss some game-changing throws, like Kyler Murray did last week in just his second game back.
Last year, Jacksonville was 3–7 through 10 weeks. Then TLaw and company won 6 of its last 7, which led to an incredible wildcard playoff victory. Lawrence hasn’t been especially sharp this year, but this is nearly exactly the moment he and Pederson began to click. And this year, the roster is that much stronger.
Lawrence will also be facing Demeco Ryans whose defense, according to Twitter, plays zone at nearly 64% of the time. Lawrence ranks 5th in the NFL in ypa vs zone coverage since 2022. The Jaguars are also road warriors and have gone 5–0 ATS and SU on the road (including neutral game locations) this season.
Pick: Jacksonville -2, Win: Jacksonville
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) v Indianapolis Colts
Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay battled the 49ers extremely well, continually driving the ball across midfield, only to be prevented from scoring by multiple red zone TOs and stops. The Colts defense will not have the same effectiveness. The Bucs 50% success rate on offense was the 2nd best performance against the 49ers defense this season, according to Twitter sharps.
Indianapolis is coming off a bye, but they’ve also spent the last month competing against PJ Walker, Derek Carr, Mac Jones and Bryce Young. Two of those teams nearly scored 40 points on this Colts defense.
It’s never great to be missing your top 2 CBs, but this Bucs defense can afford it going against the 42nd-graded QB out of 62 QBs this year, according to PFF. The Colts defense has only held 30% of opponents to a success rate below their season average. What makes this metric scarier is the Colts have the fifth-easiest schedule for defenses.
Pick: Tampa Bay +2.5, Win: Tampa Bay
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) v Tennessee Titans
I keep thinking the Panthers will cover some of these games due to the defense playing physical ball, thwarting some drives in the process, but the offense is unbearable and the coaching staff continues to ping pong playcalling responsibilities. Is Bryce Young even a starting quarterback in this league? This team is a mess.
Will Levis is showing signs of real concern (28th in EPA among qualified QBs), but he has played three road games in a row. Last time he was home was his 4-TD debut. Mike Vrabel should have a nice game plan for him back at home, I can’t say the same for Reich and friends.
Two rookie quarterbacks. Two bottom-10 graded defenses according to PFF. The slight advantages lean Tennessee due to its rushing attack and head coaching advantage.
Pick: Tennessee -3.5, Win: Tennessee
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) v Philadelphia Eagles
Some are expecting the Eagles to come down off the high of beating the team that stopped them from Super Bowl glory, but I like the Eagles in this spot as a favorite of just 3, because the Bills are not within 3 points of this one-loss club. Buffalo is fighting for a playoff spot in an AFC that lost Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow. The Eagles have back-to-back Super Bowl appearances on its mind.
Side note: How many points is the Brotherly Shove worth?
What QBs have Buffalo taken down? Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, Tua, Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield and Zach Wilson, with additional losses to Zach Wilson and Mac Jones. Jalen Hurts is a whole other beast.
The Eagles will also be able to run the ball down the injured defense’s throat, which ranks 22nd according to PFF.
Pick: Philadelphia -2.5, Win: Philadelphia
Chicago Bears (+3.5) v Minnesota Vikings
This line seems too high if Justin Jefferson isn’t suiting up. The team is keeping his injury status on the down low, but the word on the street is he’s still a game away from playing.
Both teams are coming off heart-breaking losses, but Chicago looks much better than it did in the first half of the season while Josh Dobbs is attempting to salvage this season into a wildcard spot.
This truly feels like a toss-up, so getting more than 3 points seems like a gift. Yes, the Vikings are setting a league record for the amount of blitzes it’s committing to, but it’s only to make up for its weak personnel. The blitzing may be effective, but Fields is always a threat with his legs while D.J. Moore can make this defense pay after the catch.
When blitzed, Justin Fields’ passing grades only drop approximately 10 points. It falls from a 73 to a 63, which is far from great, but at least it’s not an insurmountable disadvantage.
Pick: Chicago +3.5, Win: Minnesota
Week 12 Stay Aways
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) v Atlanta Falcons
Another Falcons game, another automatic stay away. This team perpetually confuses bettors, fantasy managers and Falcons fans alike with its peculiar personnel groups, limited amount of touches for skills position players with untapped potential and consistent finishes where the game is decided by 2 points or less. They’re a headache to figure out.
But Derek Carr is on the road again, where he has a 31–47 record in his career, according to StatMuse. Carr had a 4–12–1 stretch against the spread as a road favorite in his last 17 games with the Raiders, a trend that has still continued with the Saints. He’s now 6–17 lifetime against the spread.
Additionally, QBs in their first games back from a concussion are 2–7 against the spread over the last three years.
It may be more in tune with the QBs the Falcons have played this year, but its pass defense is giving up 200.4 yards per game this year, the eighth lowest in the league.
Pick: Atlanta +1.5, Win: Atlanta
New England Patriots (-3) v New York Giants
It shouldn’t be shocking seeing these teams battle for a top pick this year, but after two iconic Super Bowl duels, it’s just weird. And sad.
The Giants are coming off a nice upset win, albeit against a team they already have a win against, while the Patriots got a belated bye. Is Shoeshine Tommy Devito going to light it up against Bill Belichick? Probably not.
In the Giants’ three wins, Barkley has had 350 combined total yards and 5 TDs. He has yet to score in a loss. Unfortunately, he’s facing a sixth-ranked rushing defense, according to PFF.
By averaging a combined 27.6 points a game, this would be safe to bet the under. But if we have to pick a team, I’m taking the slightly more competent Patriots, but we’ll see who wants to tank more.
Pick: New England -3, Pick: New England
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) v Arizona Cardinals
The Rams’ season lives on after an incredible win over the Seahawks last week, but if Geno Smith never leaves the game, the Rams are most likely 3–7 and out of contention.
Stafford has been brutal this year with just 9 TDs and 8 INTs on the year, alongside several nagging injuries that make me believe he’s one hit away from crumpling on the turf for good. But his weapons are plentiful and Sean McVay keeps scheming wins.
Arizona has 23 guys either listed on the injury report or already on IR. The Rams? 4. That includes Kyren Williams returning from injury — who torched this defense earlier this year.
Still, I think there is an X-factor looming with Kyler Murray. He hasn’t looked great, but the opportunities are there, and will continue to be against this defense. He just needs to take advantage. It’s a definition of a stay away, but I’ll take the slight points.
Pick: Arizona +2.5, Win: Arizona
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) v Los Angeles Chargers
Not sure if this means anything against the Chargers’ awful defense this year, but Lamar has struggled in his few matchups against LAC. He faced the Chargers in his rookie year in the playoffs, and struggled with just a 79 passer rating and less than 200 passing yards. A few years later, his passer rating was just 68 with 167 passing yards and 2 INTs.
Justin Herbert was PFF’s №1 graded QB last two weeks, showing us he has completely healed from his hand injury.
Lamar meanwhile is a little beat up, and the biggest concern is no more Mark Andrews. Isaiah Likely is a formidable backup that few teams have at their disposal, but he’s still young and can’t be the dependent yards churner Andrews is. Additionally, OBJ is a game-time decision and Zay Flowers missed practice this week due to a hip injury.
When Justin Herbert is an underdog of more than 3 points, LA is 9–2 against the spread. We’re taking a major gamble here fading Lamar.
Pick: Los Angeles +3.5, Win: Baltimore