2023 Week 13 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks (+9.5) v Dallas Cowboys
Wowza! This Vegas line is treating the Hawks as a bottom-10 team which, despite a 3–4 pedestrian stretch that has sucked the sails out of the season for most PNW gridiron fans, this is still a team with eyes on January football. And Pete Carroll flipping a Thursday blowout into a trap game is definitely in the cards.
Dak Prescott and his ranch hands have won 8 games this season. The records of said opponents? 29–66 with 0 teams above .500. This game is a true test for this club. Can Ceedee Lamb overcome Devon Witherspoon? Can Dallas author an effective run game? Will Dak sputter and create turnovers when facing an above .500 team?
Geno Smith and the Seahawks are playing with house money. Smith is 21–17–2 ATS as an underdog in his career, and this is a spot where this team thrives. There’s no rest advantage for either side, but at least Abe Lucas is back, making this offensive line potentially the healthiest its been all season.
Pick: Seattle +9.5, Win: Dallas
Week 13 Locks
Detroit Lions (-4.5) v New Orleans Saints
New Orleans always seems to be getting a few extra points from Vegas, even though it remains undeserved.
Lions should be favored by more than 4.5, despite the upset loss to Green Bay on Turkey Day. With half a week extra rest playing in a stadium that has very little home-field advantage these days, this is a great week for a Detroit bounce back.
I have it on good authority Chris Olave will be out due to failing to leave concussion protocol. Even if he does play, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed are out as well. This team might have to keep pace with Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara and its 4th best WR — which I bet you can’t name off the top of your head.
Road favorites off Thursday Night Football in the 2nd half of the season cover at a 54% rate against the spread.
Pick: Detroit -4.5, Win: Detroit
Atlanta Falcons (-2) v New York Jets
Another week of betting against Tim Boyle? And I give up less than 3 points?? Yes, yes, yes! I’m more convinced the Jets realized this season is lost, but won’t activate Aaron Rodgers because it is far too risky for a 40-year-old to come back so soon from such a debilitating injury. But this way, Rodgers can say he beat traditional science with his own methods and only failed to come back because the Jets lost too many games. And guess what? It’s a lot easier to lose games with Tim Boyle.
Atlanta’s defense ranks 12th overall, according to PFF, with a 2nd-ranked run defense. Meanwhile, the Jets give up the second-most rush yards in the league. This is a bad matchup with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier looming in the backfield.
Desmond Ridder makes a lot of mistakes, but he still clears Boyle’s work under center. Jets haven’t scored more than 13 points since that weird game against the Jets five weeks ago.
Pick: Atlanta -2, Win: Atlanta
Miami Dolphins (-9) v Washington Commanders
The last two weeks of football for Washington has been brutal. After a heartbreaking loss to Seattle, the Commanders have lost by a combined 47 points against two NFC East rivals. The beatings will continue with the Dolphins coming into town.
Washington’s defense currently ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA pass defense, 30th in explosive pass rate and 31st in ADOT. To play Tua, Tyreek and Waddle in McDaniel’s offense? This is the biggest mismatch of the week.
And Miami’s defense is only improving. Jaelan Phillips is on IR, but Jalen Ramsey has fit this defense beautifully with 3 INTs, 3 passes defended and 9 tackles since returning from injury.
Pick: Miami -9, Win: Miami
Carolina Panthers (+5.5) v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The new coach theory has hit this season in spades. Antonio Pierce led the Raiders to wins and multiple covers while Buffalo and Pittsburgh got big explosive wins when the offensive coordinator was replaced.
Now Frank Reich, the single fastest coach to be fired in NFL history in a season, is getting replaced. I wonder how the players will respond to this.
And the interim head coach, Chris Tabor, is getting some help on defense. Carolina has activated Horn, Chinn and Gross-Matos, a huge boost to a defense that was already going to play hard in a divisional matchup for a new head coach. Linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White, alongside CB Jamel Dean, will all be out for Tampa Bay.
Jeff Saturday’s only win as a head coach was the first week. This is a foolproof plan.
Pick: Carolina +5.5, Win: Carolina
San Francisco 49ers (-3) v Philadelphia Eagles
This is the 5th time a 1-loss team or better, this late into the season, is an underdog.
We saw what the Seattle Seahawks employed to stop the 49er’s unstoppable over-the-middle scheme on Thanksgiving, and now the Eagles’ 25th ranking in EPA allowed over the middle on the 4th highest rate of plays.
Additionally, the Eagles coverage rate, according to PFF, is 62.9, the 8th worst in the league.
The Eagles have only two wins of multiple scores, while the 49ers have 7. And, not that this point adds much to the betting tapestry we’re weaving this week, but this game means a lot more to the 49ers than the Eagles. The Eagles got the best of San Francisco in last year’s NFC Conference Championship, but now Brock can avenge the loss with a healthy four quarters.
The Eagles have trailed in four straight games, including by double digits last two weeks. Fall behind this 9ers team, there may be no comeback available.
Pick: San Francisco -3, Win: San Francisco
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) v Green Bay Packers
The Chiefs continue to be overvalued by Vegas, and the Packers are looming as a scary playoff team with the pieces finally clicking after 11 games.
Jordan Love looks great, and has for the past month. The team’s run game remains hit and miss with Aaron Jones battling annual injuries, but the Chiefs have the seventh-worst run defense.
And the Packers’ defense was on full display sinking the Lions’ elite offense on Turkey Day, and that win gave them a rest advantage and more time to prep.
Kansas City is 14–17 against the spread with Mahomes as a road favorite of 3.5 points or more, while Lafleur is 18–10 against the spread as an underdog. Chiefs keep winning, especially when Mahomes doesn’t have an illness, but they haven’t been able to cover regularly for years.
Pick: Green Bay +6.5, Win: Kansas City
Week 13 Dice Throws
Denver Broncos (+3) v Houston Texans
Denver has won five straight, with Russell Wilson no longer begging to cook and working within a confined system that minimizes his mistakes, but the biggest key for this winning streak is the unprecedented turnover luck this team has received.
Denver’s defense has created 15 turnovers in its last five games, good for 30.6% of opponent drives — 11.5% higher than any other defense in the NFL, according to Twitter sharps. And that 11.5% gap is equivalent to the gap between #2 SF and #29 Jacksonville!
The team’s average starting field position was the opponents’ 46-yard line during this win streak, yet the Broncos have scored more than 24 once.
Unfortunately, Denver has to face CJ Stroud who’s thrown just 5 INTs in his rookie season. With playoffs on the line for both clubs, pick the stronger quarterback and fade this Broncos’ crazy win streak.
Pick: Houston -3, Win: Houston
Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) v New England Patriots
A lot of sharps are taking the Patriots in this spot, but sometimes these bets are too sharp for me, unlike cheddar. That cheese can never be too sharp.
Bailey Zappe ranks as the 61st QB, according to PFF, with a 34.0 grade, behind only Clayton Tune and P.J. Walker on the season. Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne are out, leaving Zappe to throw to JuJu Smith-Schuster and Davante Parker, the 87th and 88th-ranking WRs for yards per route out of 102 qualifying pass catchers. Bad defense be damned, this offense stinks.
And when LAC has played a truly bad team (a la NYJ, Chicago, Vegas and Tennessee), its margin of victory is 10.5, and that is including the Week 2 loss to Tennessee. NE is 3–13 against the spread as an underdog since the beginning of last year.
Pick: LAC -5.5, Win: LAC
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) v Pittsburgh Steelers
This is tough for Pittsburgh, which is in an unfavorable spot being favored by this much with such little offense to go around. But gone are the Matt Canada days, and this squad can now hit 400 total yards once a blue moon.
And Kyler Murray isn’t quite elevating this team as much as I thought he would. After a 2-point win over Atlanta when Taylor Heinicke was starting, Arizona lost to Houston by 5 and then LAR by 23.
Murray is averaging just under 30 rush yards a game with 3 TDs, but only averages 240 passing yards and has as many passing TDs and INTs (2).
Receiver Michael Wilson is out while Hollywood Brown failed to practice all week. How will Murray fare in Pittsburgh’s tough stadium and tougher weather when he’s averaging less than 5 carries a game?
Mike Tomlin is 8–0–1 straight up as a favorite of 3.5+ without Roethlisberger, but Murray is 14–5 against the spread as a road dog in his career. The Cardinals scare me as they have little to play for, but I still like the cover against this anemic offense.
Pick: Arizona +5.5, Win: Pittsburgh
Cleveland Browns (+4) v Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are a win away from 2nd prize in the NFC West. At 6–6, they would be in the thick of it for a final playoff spot.
The only thing standing in their way? Joe freakin Flacco. Since moving on from Baltimore, he’s just 3–14 as a starter.
But Stafford struggles against strong pass rushes and man-heavy defenses, both employed by the Browns. Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper are suiting up for both sides of the ball, while Cooper Kupp is clearly hobbled. The Browns also have given up the least amount of pass attempts over the middle of the field, where Kupp and Nacua thrive alongside Stafford.
If this defense can keep the statue-esque Stafford from lighting this team up, the Browns can at least cover this game. Joe Flacco’s bad record aside, he has 20 TDs against 11 INTs in his last 17 games. As long as the turnovers are kept at bay, the Browns remain tough to defeat.
Pick: Cleveland +4, Win: Los Angeles
Week 13 Stay Aways
Indianapolis Colts (-1) v Tennessee Titans
What’s strange about this line is the Titans were a 2.5-point favorite in Indianapolis when Anthony Richardson was starting. Now the teams have flipped home fields — and quarterbacks — feels like too dramatic a shift. And now Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out, but Zach Moss has proven that to be insignificant.
The Colts’ defensive style features blitzing at the single lowest rate in the NFL with a very zone-heavy secondary. Levis has faced three top-10 blitzing defenses and should thrive much better with a more relaxed pocket. Levis also plays much sharper at home.
Levis can also lean on Derrick Henry and Tajae Spears against a Colts defense that ranks 23rd in EPA, 21st in explosive runs allowed and 31st in rush success rate. The Titans are 5–0 straight up and against the spread at home this year, let’s ride the home-field advantage.
Pick: Tennessee +1.5, Win: Tennessee