2023 Week 14 NFL Picks
Week 14 Locks
Houston Texans (-6) v New York Jets
Getting Houston under a TD against Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle or who else this team throws at quarterback seems lovely on paper. And it’s a great test for CJ Stroud, facing the №1 ranked coverage team, according to PFF.
With reports of Zach Wilson not wanting to play, is that just bulletin board material for DeMeco Ryan and his defense? That unit will need it as they rank just 20th with one of the worst tackling grades in the league.
No Dalton Schultz and no Tank Dell certainly hurts. It doesn’t help that the Jets’ main weakness on defense is its rushing attack, in which the Texans have none.
Since 2000, teams on the road after three straight road games are just 43% against the spread, according to Twitter sharps. Of the 35 teams in this spot as road favorites of more than 3 points, only 29% have covered.
Pick: New York +6, Win: New York
Seattle Seahawks (+13.5) v San Francisco 49ers
The disrespeeeeect here. 13.5?? San Francisco is such a difficult matchup for Seattle, but a two-touchdown spread seems ridiculous. This team will be fired up to keep pace, and I still think Seattle is too good to be that much of an underdog.
Remember, Tampa Bay lost by 13, and I think Seattle is a stronger team than Baker Mayfield and Company.
Despite the 49ers scoring 27+ in nine games with a fully healthy offense and 30+ in eight of those nine, Seattle is primed for a backdoor cover any given week.
Geno Smith is a game-time decision with a groin injury and the team’s backfield is battered and bruised, it’s going to be a challenge not taking the 49ers. But Seattle is a fringe playoff team, I’ll take the points.
Pick: Seattle +13.5, Win: San Francisco
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) v Kansas City
After fading the Bills for most of this season, I think this is a really great spot for them. Josh Allen is the only quarterback to win twice at Arrowhead in the Mahomes era, both regular-season wins of course.
Kansas City left Green Bay with some injuries, as LB Drue Tranquill, S Bryan Cook, LT Donovan Smith, and RB Isaiah Pacheco are all out. For Buffalo? They got a bye and have had two weeks of rest and preparation for this game.
Kansas City has the West locked up despite being 8–4 while Buffalo is fighting for their playoff lives at 6–6. Not that the Bills will need any motivation to be at their best against the Chiefs.
Someone on Twitter pointed out that Kansas City is a Tyreek Hill fumble six away from losing four of its last five. Buffalo will be ready.
Pick: Buffalo +2.5, Win: Buffalo
Week 14 Dice Throws
Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) v Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore had a nice week off watching Kansas City, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Pittsburgh all lose. The race for the 1st seed might be a 2-man race between the Ravens and the Fins, we’ll see.
Stafford has a history of thriving in tough weather, but at his age with his ailing injuries, it’s a tough mountain to climb. Heavy rain and stronger winds are expected, and this Ravens team will be at home with two weeks off with a run-heavy scheme. Also, Lamar is 17–1 v the NFC.
The Ravens have destroyed non-divisional opponents at home this year, according to some Twitter sharps, going 3–1 against the spread and winning by an average of more than 27 points per game.
The Rams are 3–3 on the road, just like they are at home, but those wins include Seattle in September, Arizona in late-November, and Indianapolis in a dome on Oct. 1. I like Baltimore for the rest and the weather.
Pick: Baltimore -7.5, Win: Baltimore
Detroit Lions (-3) v Chicago Bears
Chicago has shown they can keep up with Detroit, and the team continues to improve. According to some Twitter sharps, the defense ranks 6th in EPA and 8th in success rate since Week 7.
I wrote about Matt Stafford struggling in Baltimore’s bad weather, and the same worries continue here with Jared Goff playing in Chicago. It’s going to be cold. It’s going to be windy. The ball will struggle to move.
And Chicago is in audition mode. They have these next five weeks to figure out whether or not Justin Fields is the future with the allotment of picks at their disposal.
The Bears are 4–0 against the spread in the last four games Fields has started and finished.
Pick: Chicago +3, Win: Chicago
Indianapolis Colts (-2) v Cincinnati Bengals
Did you know, according to EPA, a stat that tracks expected point total, Browning had the 15th-best game of any QB all season. Tee Higgins is getting back into game shape, snagging just 36 yards in his game back after a month’s absence, while Ja’Marr Chase is catching every tipped ball in play. Even Tanner Hudson has gone five games in a row with 4+ grabs, no matter the QB under center.
Cincinnati’s defense ranks 31st in success rate and 30th in EPA when excluding turnovers, but guess what? They’re playing Minshew (who I love). But he has 12 turnovers against 16 TDs. Minshew has had a turnover-less game just once in his last seven starts, and that was against Carolina.
We’ve had to wager and gamble on so many different backup QBs, all rules are out the window. With no Jonathan Taylor to lean on, I’m riding Cincy after a very UW-inspired Browning performance.
Pick: Cincinnati +2, Win: Cincinnati
Carolina Panthers (+5.5) v New Orleans Saints
Carolina is so bad, the new coach theory only worked as an against-the-spread victory, not even a true one. Even Jeff Saturday won his first game.
There are some alarming trends with New Orleans that we’ve been tracking this year, mostly relating to Derek Carr and Dennis Allen — aka Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum.
Dennis Allen is 3–6 against the spread as a favorite of over a FG in his career. Dennis Allen is 8–13 against the spread against teams with a win % of 40% or worse, post-week 5 in a season throughout his career. Derek Carr is 6–19 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 or more.
Jonathan Mingo has 60 yards in back-to-back games after logging just 1 in his first 10 games. That on top of Adam Theilen’s season gives this team a great chance of a backdoor cover.
Pick: Carolina +5.5, Win: Carolina
Denver Broncos (+2.5) v Los Angeles Chargers
We faded Denver twice last two weeks after they won a surprising 4 in a row. Denver took care of Cleveland, but the spell finally expired against a beat-up Texans squad.
Denver had 8 (!!!) penalty yards compared to the Texans’ 81, including taking away the longest air pass in record history from CJ Stroud to Tank Dell. I think I heard that right on the broadcast. Denver is 12th in most penalties, so blowing that game with such little penalties for this team was brutal.
With such a toss-up between division rivals, the better QB is always a nice edge to lean on. Since Week 8, Herbert has the 4th highest PFF grade in the NFL and the 8th lowest turnover-worthy play rate.
The Chargers have been bad, but were they ever 4–7 bad? Some games have to start breaking their way, especially with Herbert’s play of late.
Pick: Los Angeles -2.5, Win: Los Angeles
Week 14 Stay Aways
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) v Atlanta Falcons
Another Falcons divisional game, another stay away. This time, I think the Bucs spoil things and further complicate the drudgy NFC South.
№1 CB AJ Terrell is questionable with a concussion, but if he’s out, he’d join Grady Jarrett, David Onyemata and Nate Landman on the injury list, which is tough to overcome against the WR duo of Evans + Godwin.
The only time Tampa Bay has lost by multiple scores was when the team faced SF, Detroit and Philly — who combined for a 28–8 win-loss record this year. Additionally, Baker Mayfield is 5–3 against the spread as a dog in 2023, while Desmond Ridder is just 2–4 against the spread as a favorite this season.
Pick: Tampa Bay +2.5, Win: Tampa Bay
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) v Cleveland Browns
Joe Flacco looked good. He threw on that Browns uniform and went to work like a true professional. The weapons surrounding him are weak, especially with Amari Cooper listed as questionable.
In Trevor Lawrence’s last three games, his team put up 89 points. He had 5 TDs against 1 INT. But most importantly, he was sacked just three times. He only accumulated 25 rush yards over that three-game stretch, but that was on 12 carries. He is continually using his mobility to make plays, and now he can’t with a high-ankle sprain.
And now he has to face the sixth-ranked defense in the league, according to PFF, which has the third-highest-ranking pass rush.
With no Christian Kirk on top of it, who’s been great this season, Cleveland is in play for its 8th win of the year.
Pick: Cleveland -3, Win: Cleveland
Minnesota Vikings (-3) v Las Vegas Raiders
A definition of a true stay away, I honestly can’t tell which team is better by 3 points. Justin Jefferson’s return paired with Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme against a rookie who wasn’t even a Week 1 starter could be trouble for Vegas.
But Vegas has scored 46 points over the last three games, while giving up 63. Minnesota’s offense, with Justin Jefferson, just has much more pop, at least on paper.
Pick: Minnesota -3, Win: Minnesota
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) v Dallas Cowboys
Ok. This is it. Can Dak win this game? The Eagles are fighting through a monstrous stretch of games, and Dak Prescott just beat his first above .500 team of the season in incredible fashion. It was a great win against Seattle.
The Eagles will score, but can the Eagles stop Dallas? Dallas is averaging 34 points a game at home since the beginning of 2022 and an incredible 41 points at home this season. They have not scored less than 30 at home all year, easy schedule or not.
Marcus Mariota had to come in for four passes after Hurts banged up his knee, which was later revealed to be a multi-week injury. If that means he can’t scramble, dance in the picket, and fully utilize the Brotherly Shove, you’d have to fade this team.
For such tight divisional games, I usually like to take the points, but similar to Buffalo facing Kansas City, this is a really nice spot for Dem Boys.
Pick: Dallas -3, Win: Dallas
Monday Night Football
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) v New York Giants
Another Packers game, another injury-riddled roster. WR Christian Watson, RB Aaron Jones, CB Jaire Alexander and LB Quay Walker are out, but luckily, they get to face a team with the second-worst point differential in the NFC.
Tommy DeVito has played better as of late, ranking 46th out of 69 QBs on PFF in overall QB grades. Jordan Love meanwhile gets to face Wink Martindale’s blitz-heavy schemes. Love is No. 7 in the NFL in PFF grade vs the blitz with 6 TDs and 0 INTs thrown.
The Giants have won two games in a row with a combined score of 41–26. Certainly not bad, but with nine turnovers committed by the Giants’ defense in that stretch, a +15 point differential is minimal.
Before this team won two in a row, the Giants suffered blowout losses to Dallas and Vegas. The Packers are coming off wins against Detroit and Kansas City, with the NFC North crown in sight.
Pick: Green Bay -5.5, Win: Green Bay
Tennessee Titans (+13.5) v Miami Dolphins
The Titans are the fourth-worst team in terms of EPA on defense, and its secondary is even weaker with S Byard now in Philly. Jeffery Simmons will also be out with injury. Additionally, Miami crushes bad teams.
According to Twitter sharps, in the last two years at home with Tua under center, Miami is 8–3 against the spread, scoring at least 31 in four of their five home games this year. This is trouble for Tennessee.
Tennessee has failed to cover 14 three times this year, including twice in the last four weeks. I love taking the points in spreads this large, but not with Mike McDaniel’s offense singing in South Beach the way it is. It’s not like this team ISN’T motivated to get Tyreek Hill to 2k receiving yards after all, even if they’re up 10 late.
Pick: Miami -13.5, Win: Miami