2023 Week 15 NFL Picks
Saturday Games
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) v Cincinnati Bengals
Nick Mullens versus Jake Browning. Another conundrum of a matchup.
Browning has looked great in his spot starts, netting a 76.2 passing grade according to PFF. But these are two teams with loaded offensive weapons, backup QBs and sub-optimal defenses. his is closer to a pick ’em for me than a 3-point spread.
Minnesota also ranks 5th in EPA defensively and 6th defending the pass, meaning defensive coordinator Brian Flores is maximizing this roster and can pressure younger QBs. Look at what he did to Aiden O’Connell compared to what he did to LAC that following Thursday.
Pick: Minnesota +3.5, Win: Minnesota
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) v Indianapolis Colts
Why was there discourse over Mike Tomlin losing his job due to an unfortunately bad loss to Big Bad Bill Belichick on prime time? He’s been saddled with Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett all year, and is still above .500 — like he’s been every other year of his coaching career.
This is an emotional pick, but the Steelers are an emotional team. TJ Watt is back from concussion protocol, and this team will be playing with an absolute fire in their bellies.
According to some deep dive stats brought to me by some Twitter sharps, on 110 dropbacks against zone coverage last year, Trubisky produced the fourth-highest YPA with the second-highest completion percentage. Guess what? The Colts play zone at the third-highest rate in the league.
Steelers have lost two in a row: a weird game against Arizona with multiple weather delays and quarterback changes and then losing to New England on a short week in a Trubisky v Belichick defense matchup.
Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5, Win: Pittsburgh
Denver Broncos (+4.5) v Detroit Lions
Denver’s mid-season turnaround is pretty historic, and we’ve been right about them most of this season. Still, something stinks of fraudulence and I keep leaning towards fading them.
The Broncos have the 10th-worst run defense in the league, and are facing one of the most elite running offenses in the league. And Goff will bounce back at home, in a dome away from any bad weather.
There’s been a lot of turnover luck during Denver’s six-wins-in-seven-weeks run. There’s also been a lot of QB luck as multiple QBs have been hurt against this defense. I think this will begin to come back down to Earth against a young playoff team.
Goff is 15–8 against the spread after a loss with the Lions, including an 11–4 mark at home. Lions are also 12–5 against the spread off a loss in their last 17 games.
Pick: Detroit -4.5, Win: Detroit
Week 15 Locks
Houston Texans (+2.5) v Tennessee Titans
That was Tennessee’s first win on the road with Will Levis, and now they play at home against a divisional opponent they have had incredible success against at home.
Everyone was speculating whether this rivalry would flip with C.J. Stroud under center, but with him sidelined alongside Tank Dell and potentially Nico Collins, Tennessee will take its newfound momentum into a class with Davis Mills, Bobby Trees, Dalton Schultz and Devin Singletary.
I thought it was obvious Stroud and his receiving corps were elevating a pretty mediocre roster, and we might be in store for an Easton Stick-led Chargers performance v Vegas.
Derrick Henry has 225 carries for 1380 yards and has scored 12 touchdowns in 12 games against the Texans in his career, including four 200+ yard performances.
Pick: Tennessee +2.5, Win: Tennessee
Week 15 Dice Throws
Chicago Bears (+3.5) v Cleveland Browns
Cleveland has an excellent defense, no doubt about it. But the team has struggled against mobile quarterbacks as Lamar has hung 28 and 31 on this team. Now they face Justin Fields playing the best ball of his life.
Playing this game outside in Cleveland will only help Fields too, as a run-heavy scheme will only aid its offense while playing in winds of up to 20 mph.
Joe Flacco has seamlessly filled in Stefanski’s team, turning it from a top-5 rushing team in terms of plays called into a top-5 passing team, but Chicago has held seven of its last nine opponents to under its team total. This defense is legit and has only grown since adding Montez Sweat.
Pick: Chicago +3.5, Win: Chicago
New York Jets (+8.5) v Miami Dolphins
A really good team got embarrassed on prime time and gets to play a team with an abysmal quarterback as a bounce-back opportunity? Sign. Me. Up.
Miami had that game covered despite the Tyreek Hill injury. The team just imploded to a Vrabel-coached team in the final four minutes. Zach Wilson’s play after a quick benching is not swaying me from my spot of this being a bounce-back.
Miami was a 9.5-point favorite v NY on Black Friday, and now they get a point shaved while facing them at home? I love this line. It’s not a lock because we’re all still waiting to see if Tyreek Hill sits this week.
Pick: Miami -8.5, Win: Miami
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) v New England Patriots
Another big point spread for the Chiefs to overcome, and another fade on the Chiefs from me. Kansas City is one of the worst second-half scoring teams in the league and Bailey Zappe finally showed that New England can put “some” points on the board for a cover.
No Pacheco means less of an ability to run out the game clock, and New England’s defense has still played at an elite level despite the sleepwalking offense. This team set a record for least points allowed on a three-game losing streak. This screams loss, but cover.
It’s not a lock merely because one of the worst offensive rosters also has a slew of injuries. Rhamondre Stevenson is out again, but Demario Douglas (perhaps the best WR on the team) is returning. Kansas City is 1alos just 4–17 against the spread with Mahomes as a road favorite of 3.5 points or more.
Pick: New England +9.5, Win: Kansas City
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) v Arizona Cardinals
You know the drill with me. You see such a large point spread, you take the points. The 49ers are definitively the best team in the league (when healthy), but this is too many points.
This is an inter-division matchup where the lesser team has Kyler Murray quarterbacking for them. The Seahawks lost by 12 with Drew Lock, the Cardinals easily have a chance to keep this competitive for long stretches.
Home dogs in a divisional matchup are 33–28 against the spread since 2000, but from Week 12 on, that number jumps to 21–14 against the spread.
Pick: Arizona +13.5, Win: San Francisco
Washington Commanders (+6.5) v Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have scored 31 or more points in three straight games, including against the top two EPA defenses in the NFL — Cleveland and Baltimore. This team has been a nice surprise for most of the year, and now a playoff birth is within reach.
But Washington is coming off a bye while the Rams are coming off an overtime loss on the road (on the East Coast). Teams are abysmal facing a team on a short week after participating in overtime the previous week. While there is no short week for this matchup, Washington has had double the rest.
Washington is letting everyone score since Sweat and Young were shipped out westward, but the Rams’ pass defense is 25th in explosive passes allowed, meaning both teams could sing offensively. Howell is 5th in passing yards and tied for 14th in passing TDs after all this year.
The Rams’ defense has also been a bottom-10 unit in pressure rate, Washington and Howell’s Achilles heel this year.
Pick: Washington +6.5, Win: LAR
Week 15 Stay Aways
Atlanta Falcons (-3) v Carolina Panthers
Hey, would you look at that. Another Falcons game, another stay away. Just five Falcons games have been decided by more than one score, while four of the contests have been decided by 3 or less. This team almost rarely pulls away, and this is a divisional matchup with new leadership and a “slightly” more experienced QB.
Atlanta is also 2–4 both straight up and against the spread away from home. Ridder hasn’t fared any better in his five games away from home, guiding the offense to 51 points and four touchdowns.
Pick: Carolina +3, Win: Atlanta
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) v Green Bay Packers
Green Bay suffered a devastating loss to New York as it vies for a playoff spot, and injuries had a big hand in that outcome.
Christian Watson is out alongside rookie Luke Musgrave, who’s been on IR with some offensive linemen. For those who are questionable? Both RBs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, LB Walker and DBs Stokes, Savage and Alexander.
But Tampa Bay is beat up too. WR Godwin, LB White, DT Vea and DB Dean are all questionable. If they’re officially ruled out, they would join DB Neal and Davis, C Jensen and DL Gholston among others.
With two beat-up rosters and quarterbacks playing at similar levels (Love ranks as the 19th-best QB according to PFF while Mayfield is 24th), I’m just going to take the points. Mayfield is 24–21 against the spread as an underdog, yet 13–25–1 as a favorite.
Pick: Tampa Bay +4, Win: Green Bay
New York Giants (+6) v New Orleans Saints
Dennis Allen is 4–8 against the spread in his career as a head coach when favored by 3 or more. Derek Carr is 9–26 against the spread in his career as a favorite of 3 or more. And now, Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum are joining forces to face Shoeshine Tommy and his Sopranos agent??
I have been short with Tommy DeVito and have completely missed this three-game winning streak the Giants are on. I was way too high on this team coming into the year, but this is what I knew was lying underneath the sludge of Metlife. Hard-working, defensive-minded, offensively creative and gutsy football.
Even if this team can’t stretch its win streak to 4, they still have 6 points of wiggle room to create a cover. And Darren Waller has been reactivated, so his return would only be an additional boost.
I simply don’t think this Saints team has shown it can be a favorite by a whole TD.
Pick: NYG +6, Win: NYG
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) v Buffalo Bills
This is a stay-away for how strange the line is. Dallas is playing its best football since Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliot’s rookie year, they’ve officially forced themselves into the NFC contender tier after taking down its absolute divisional nemesis, and now get to face the scrambling Bills.
Buffalo is without Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, A.J. Epenesa and Matt Milano and now has to face one of the two best offenses in football. The Cowboys are coming off a rare three-game homestand. Teams who have swept this home stretch are just 9–21 against the spread in the first game back on the road. It doesn’t help that the host site is Buffalo in December.
I have my questions and reservations when it comes to Dallas, but I have none for this game. Buffalo is allowing 88% of red zone drives to end in TDs in the last three weeks, and this team loves to punch it in in the air at the goal line, while also having Tony Pollard as a change-of-pace piece.
Pick: Dallas +2.5, Win: Dallas
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) v Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore is 20th in EPA and success rate since week 10 defensively, giving up two 30+ point games in the last month. This is troubling against a motivated 8-win team trying to get back on track and compete for the top seed. And this is an AFC team, so it’s not automatic that Lamar will roll over them.
Jacksonville is playing this game at home in December in the second straight season where this team has a mid-season uptick in performance. Last year, Jacksonville was 3–7 before rattling off 6 of its next 7, winning a playoff game too as a cherry on top. This year, Jacksonville has been much stronger, but Trevor Lawrence was averaging a 72.8 QB grade on PFF his first 9 weeks. His last three prior to throwing 50 passes while injured v Cleveland? 79.5 — same gap between the 16th and 22nd ranked QBs on PFF.
If Baltimore’s defense is truly challenged at this point in the year, with Kyle Hamilton very questionable at safety, Jacksonville should not be an underdog of nearly 4 at home.
Pick: Jacksonville +3.5, Win: Baltimore