2023 Week 16 NFL Picks

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) v New Orleans Saints

I hate picking the Saints at this point in the season, as the Dennis Allen + Derek Carr combo has failed on almost all fronts. We’ve tracked how poorly Allen and Carr perform against the spread when on the road and when facing QBs like Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence or Jared Goff, the Saints have lost each time.

Matthew Stafford may be one of the four best QBs this team has faced this year, and the Saints are a -37 in the aforementioned five games. As great as this defense is, it can fold to a really good QB when the offense is sputtering the way it has.

The Los Angeles Rams’ defense is susceptible at times, with a 23rd ranking in explosive pass plays and 31st in ADOT allowed. Luckily, it’s just Derek Carr the Rams have to worry about.

Pick: Los Angeles -4.5, Win: Los Angeles

Saturday Football

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) v Pittsburgh Steelers

Don’t follow me in this decision. Let me strike out on my own and fail. I just can’t quit these Steelers (although I have given up the idea that this is a playoff team).

Both Ja’Marr Chase and D.J. Reader are out for Cincinnati. We all know Chase’s value with this team and all the tipped passes he seems to catch from Browning, but Reader is graded by PFF as the single best player on the Bengals’ defense with an 82 grade. Last week, Reader only played two snaps. What did 3rd-string RB Ty Chandler (and I like Chandler) do against the Bengals? 23 carries on 5.7 ypc for more than 130 rushing yards.

The Steelers’ offense is really struggling, but the contrasting styles of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren can really inflict some damage on the Bengals’ bottom-five defense.

We’ve been scared off of backup QBs all year long at times, but the Mason Rudolph drop-off from Mitch Trubisky is marginal…at best.

Pick: Pittsburgh +3, Win: Pittsburgh

Buffalo Bills (-10.5) v Los Angeles Chargers

The Bills are 5–1 against the spread with a +7.9 margin when playing inside a dome with Josh Allen since 2020, averaging 30.6 ppg in those contests. This team is playing like it’s on fire, is treating this matchup like it’s the Super Bowl, and Allen has found himself in the MVP conversation.

Additionally, the Chargers and its 27th-ranked pass defense just got spanked by Aiden O’Connell and the Raiders by 42 points.

But what happens when a team gets embarrassed on prime time, has more days rest than its opponent, and is debuting a new coach, creating the newest chapter of the “New Coach Theory.”

Double-digit home dogs are 59% against the spread since 2000. When those teams are coming off a 30+ point loss, it’s 62% against the spread since 2000.

Pick: Los Angeles +10.5, Win: Buffalo

Week 16 Locks

Seattle Seahawks (-3) v Tennessee Titans

With Will Levis nearly ruled out, I like the Hawks here. Yes, Andy Dalton lit up this defense when filling in for Bryce Young, but that Panther team still lost by 10.

Geno Smith is set to return, and this Hawks team has played underrated football in the last three weeks despite stumbling into an unfortunate losing streak. Losing to Dallas, in Dallas, 41–35 is as close to a moral win this league gives out. Then Drew Lock stepped in, lost to SF by 12 and then beat Philly with a game-winning drive.

That last win has opened up a wildcard berth for this team, and its just Tannehill in its way now.

Walker III and Witherspoon are still questionable, but the reigning DPOW is back in the lineup with Jamaal Adams still ruled out.

Tennessee has played much better at home, while the Hawks are just 2–5 (but 5–2 against the spread), but a Tannehill-led offense is hard to depend on, especially with this team coming off an OT loss. Overtime always has more carryover into next week than we assume as fans.

Pick: Seattle -3, Win: Seattle

Week 16 Dice Throws

Cleveland Browns (-3) v Houston Texans

A quarterback battle of a mid-season waiver wire pickup vs a 3rd-string. Case Keenum was solid down the stretch, guiding this clutch team to another OT win after trailing by as much as 10. But the better quarterback and the better defense lies with Cleveland.

Defensively, Cleveland ranks first in yards allowed per drive, second in points per drive and sixth in forced turnovers.

Flacco has averaged 9.5 air yards per pass and 7.2 air yards per completion since starting for Cleveland. If he kept that pace up, those numbers would both rank top three in the league, according to Pro Football Reference.

The only pushback is the turnovers, as Flacco has produced six of the team’s seven turnovers in his games played. But even with a high volume of turnovers, Cleveland’s defense makes up for it. Cleveland is 6–4 in games in which it has have committed multiple turnovers.

Pick: Cleveland -3, Win: Cleveland

Green Bay Packers (-4) v Carolina Panthers

Aron Jones is back and is facing a team that gives up the most rushing touchdowns and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns for RBs in the league. He’s set up for a big game Sunday against a Panthers’ defense that allows the eighth-fewest yards per play.

Carolina is coming off a 9–7 win that might have sunsetted Desmond Ridder’s career as a starter. It was still not enough to make me convinced this isn’t the worst team in the league.

For the Packers’ defense, Green Bay has a 24% pressure rate, which puts them in the top-third of the league. When Bryce Young is pressured, he has the second-worst PFF offense grade, and the worst PFF passing grade.

Pick: Green Bay -4, Win: Green Bay

Detroit Lions (-3) v Minnesota Vikings

The Detroit Lions are coming off a dominant performance last Saturday, crushing the Denver Broncos 42–17. They needed that game after laying a couple of duds in the previous couple of weeks.

Over the past five games, they beat the LA Chargers (with Justin Herbert) by 3, beat Chicago by 5, lost to Green Bay by 7, beat the Saints by 5, and then lost to the Bears in the second matchup, scoring 13 points and losing by 15.

But its not like Minnesota is trending upwards either. The team has lost its last three games by 6 points and its one win in that stretch was 3–0 over the Raiders. This team is so hard to predict as they are on their 4th QB.

The Lions can win its first division title since 1993, and potentially give its coach Dan Campbell a nice lead for COTY. They are not going to blow this opportunity, Curse of Bobby Layne or not.

Pick: Detroit -3, Win: Detroit

Chicago Bears (-4.5) v Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has scored 24 and 29 in its last two weeks, potentially showing a capable offense late in the season. The Bears, meanwhile, have been a great team to lean on since Justin Fields returned from his injury. The team has won three of its last five, with the two losses just by a combined 8 points.

It’s Arizona’s defense that is hard to back. The defense allows 26.9 points per game, 31st overall, while surrendering 358.9 yards per contest, 25th in the league.

But, while I have loved backing the Bears as an underdog, this is not a place I like them. The Bears have only covered 4–5 in three of their 14 games this year. Additionally, the Bears have also blown multiple 4th-quarter leads against the Broncos, Lions and Browns.

Pick: Arizona +4.5, Win: Arizona

Week 16 Stay Aways

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) v Atlanta Falcons

Michael Pittman is out. Zach Moss is out. Atlanta is throwing us another QB, Taylor Heinicke for a second time. Oh, and it’s Atlanta, so it’s a stay away.

The Colts have on five of its last six and is in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot despite a defense that’s sixth-worst in points allowed. That defense has been a key reason for me fading this plucky, young squad, but that’s not much of a fear going against Atlanta. The Falcons have scored 25+ points three times this season, and are just 1–2 in those games.

Moving on from the 58th-graded QB (according to PFF) for the 32nd is a nice upgrade, but does this mean Gardner Minshew is the best QB on the field? With the best coach too?

Pick: Indianapolis +2.5, Win: Indianapolis

Washington Commanders (+3) v NY Jets

I’m only picking Washington for the points because what am I supposed to do with Sam Howell v Trevor Siemian. It’s the worst offense going up against the worst defense.

Can the Washington Commanders’ 18th-ranked offense (according to PFF) take down the 4th-ranked defense enough to cover 3? Honestly, I don’t know. I’m just so tired of watching and hearing about this annoying Jets team.

Pick: Washington +3, Win: Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Losers of three in a row, the Jaguars are reeling with Trevor Lawrence still limited by injuries. But this is their easiest opponent since they’ve faced Tennessee five weeks ago, when they won 34–14.

Still, this is a tough time for the Jags to catch the Bucs. The Buccaneers have scored at least 20 points in four straight games, and are coming off scoring 30+ for just the second time this season, according to Stat Salt.

This feels like a pretty even matchup this late into the season, with one clear advantage for the Bucs. This team commits the 4th lowest amount of turnovers while the Jaguars have the 6th-most. Baker Mayfield hasn’t thrown an INT in two straight games. If the Jags can’t force any turnovers, this offense that tends to stall won’t be able to keep up.

Travis Etienne has had one game averaging more than 4 yards a carry since Oct. 8. In this nine-game stretch, Etienne has topped 50 yards just five times, and hasn’t hit 50 rushing yards in his last three contests. Tampa Bay ranks in the top-10 in rushing yards allowed.

Pick: Tampa Bay +1, Win: Tampa Bay

Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) v Miami Dolphins

Got burned bad by Dem Boys last week, even though there was some daunting stats about a team traveling on the road after winning three straight home games. They were also facing a very motivated and red-hot Bills team.

Back on the road, Dallas has only defeated one team with a .500 or better record (Seattle by 6). But its not like Miami has fared much better. Against teams with a .500 record or better, Miami is just 1–3, with that one win coming against Denver — which wasn’t quite a .500 team when they drew their Dolphins’ matchup.

So two playoff teams vying for a deep postseason run who have not fared well against other playoff teams. I would normally favor the points in such a close matchup, but I like the home-field advantage for the Fins. Miami is 6–1 at home while Dallas is 3–4 on the road.

Pick: Miami -1.5, Win: Miami

Denver Broncos (-6.5) v New England Patriots

New England hung around against the Chiefs in its eventual 27–17 loss, but previously held teams to 18 points, 6 points, 10 points and 10 points again. This team can play some real good defense, despite missing some of their top guys.

New England boasts the №1 run defense when it comes to success rate, and Javonte Williams has struggled all year. He is averaging 3.7 yards per carry and has 3 TDs (just one on the ground). So Russell Wilson has to beat this team by 7 to cover, and I just don’t trust him to do so.

The Patriots blitz at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL, according to Twitter sharps, and Russ is just 23rd in PFF grade vs the blitz. He’s also been sacked at the 7th-highest rate in the league.

There’s also talk of snow in Denver? So more running and more mistakes, all the more confident Denver won’t be able to cover 6.5.

Pick: New England +6.5, Win: Denver

Christmas Football

Las Vegas Raiders (+10) v Kansas City Chiefs

What have the Raiders done as of late? They lost 3–0 at home to Minnesota and later destroyed the Chargers team that not only quit on Head Coach Brandon Staley, but was led by Easton Stick.

The Chiefs covered against this Raiders team just a few weeks ago, even after falling behind 14–0 in the opening frame. Just last week, the Chiefs eked out a cover over New England. The playoffs are around the corner and, while normally I love to fade a large Chiefs spread, this matchup is screaming Kansas City.

Aiden O’Connell is also traveling to one of the toughest home fields in the league. And this team is coming off three straight home games. Dallas just did this and traveled to Buffalo, where they lost by 21. I’m taking Kansas City.

Pick: Kansas City -10, Win: Kansas City

New York Giants (+13.5) v Philadelphia Eagles

The NY football Giants are 3–16 in its last 19 games against the Philadelphia Eagles. Even worse, the team has lost 10 straight games when playing in Philadelphia, including last year’s playoff defeat.

This is an Eagles team that has lost three in a row. In the previous 26 starts from Hurts, he lost just two games. This is a game the Eagles are hungry for with a №1 seed slipping through their fingers.

But the spread is too large considering the Eagles are giving up nearly 24.5 points a game (7th worst in the league) while also having a -6 turnover differential. Only five teams have a worse turnover differential.

Pick: New York +13.5, Win: Philadelphia

Baltimore Ravens (+6) v San Francisco 49ers

When Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel start and finish a game this year, the San Francisco 49ers are undefeated on the season. After a mid-season lull with both players missing time, the 49ers have won six straight once they returned. Each win was by 12 or more points.

That’s not even the most impressive part. San Francisco averaged 34.5 points per game during its most recent six-game winning streak, winning by an average of 18 or more points.

Lamar Jackson has had tremendous success against the NFC (18–1 lifetime), but the talent disparity is too much to overcome. The 49ers have the league’s longest active streak of games with three or more sacks (seven games). The 49ers scored touchdowns on seven consecutive offensive drives against the defending NFC Champion Eagles. The 49ers kick ass consistently!

With no J.K. Dobbins, Keaton Mitchell or Mark Andrews, Baltimore’s skills positions are dwindling. This is going to take a herculean Lamar performance to overcome.

Pick: San Francisco -6, Win: San Francisco