2023 Week 17 NFL Picks
TSaturday Football
Detroit Lions (+5.5) v Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is a different beast at home, averaging nearly 40 points a game in Jerry World while boasting a 15-game winning streak. Oddly enough, this feels familiar to Dallas in 2014 — when Romo, Murray and Bryant set franchise records and went undefeated at home before facing Detroit in Round 1.
After two duds on the road, the Dallas parade is certainly slowing down, but this is a nice bounce-back opportunity against a good-caliber team with an atrocious defense. Nick Mullens was able to put up 24, and that was with 4 INTs.
But the Lions are one of the scariest backdoor cover threats out there, and the Cowboys rank just 18th against the ground game. Detroit has a two-headed monster with Montgomery + Gibbs, controlling the clock while Goff could potentially keep pace playing in a dome. Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown are as elite as you can get in those positions.
Pick: Detroit +5.5, Win: Dallas
Week 17 Locks
New England Patriots (+14) v Buffalo Bills
You guys know my rules at this point. A spread this large, I’m taking the points. It also helps that if Bill Belichick is truly leaving NE, he’s trying to win as many games as possible to ruin their draft pick chances in typical Belichick fashion.
New England has won two in a row and has previously beaten Buffalo with Mac Jones. Buffalo meanwhile escaped an Easton Stick loss with a 24–22 win. The new coach theory is strong, but this Buffalo team is still very injured and very mistake-prone.
Pick: New England +14, Win: Buffalo
Carolina Panthers (+4.5) v Jacksonville Jaguars
No Trevor Lawrence for the first time in his career. The AFC South is on the line with C.J. Beathard getting the opportunity, woof.
Jacksonville is in utter freefall and while a Doug Pederson-guided win with a backup QB is certainly in play, Carolina is playing its best football of the year while Jacksonville is in the middle of its worst. On a yards-per-play basis, Carolina has actually outgained three straight opponents.
Pick: Carolina +4.5, Win: Carolina
Arizona Cardinals (+12) v Philadelphia Eagles
I initially thought Arizona didn’t deserve its “scrappy cover potential” title with Kyler Murray, but it has happened despite the horrific defense. Kyler beat Atlanta straight up in his return, lost to Houston by 5 after a C.J. Stroud game-winning drive, and beat the Steelers by 2 touchdowns. But, this team has also lost to LAR and SF handedly and couldn’t keep pace with Justin Fields.
But Philly’s defense is atrocious — a theme of this betting blog this week — and a backdoor cover seems viable, Marquise Brown injured or not.
And who will have the advantage? Former Philly DC Jonathan Gannon facing Philadelphia, or his latter team knowing his defensive tricks?
Kyler is 15–6 against the spread on the road as an underdog in his career, according to Twitter sharps.
Pick: Arizona +12, Win: Philadelphia
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) v Minnesota Vikings
I’m going down with the Green Bay ship. This team is just too talented compared to this Vikings team. I don’t know if they are well coached. I don’t know if Jordan Love is a franchise starter. But I like their odds so much more than Minnesota’s.
The Packers have won four of their last six games and two of their last three road games, including at least 29 points in two of their last three road games.
Now, Minnesota is starting a rookie fifth-round quarterback who has thrown 10 passes over four career series in the NFL. I’m trusting Joe Barry and the Packers’ defense to get the job done.
Pick: Green Bay +1.5, Win: Green Bay
Week 17 Dice Throws
Tennessee Titans (+4) v Houston Texans
Welcome back, C.J. Stroud. I am in my fantasy championship this week, so fingers crossed that Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz blow the roof down.
Tennessee, who hasn’t been very good this year and is in the middle of a transition, has been much weaker on the road versus at home. They have just one win on the road, and it took an incredible 14-point comeback over Miami to complete in the game’s final 4 minutes.
Derrick Henry’s dominance v Houston dried up in a devastating way earlier this year. He actually had his worst game of the year — 20 touches for 10 yards! Now they have to play on the road where they are much inferior. And they’re facing a team with a fire under their ass to make the playoffs with CJ Stroud back.
Pick: Houston -4, Win: Houston
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) v Indianapolis Colts
The Colts, alongside the Rams and the Browns, have been a team I’ve consistently been off of. When I’m comfortable betting on them, they crumble. When I fade them, they explode.
Here’s some data off of Twitter: Since 2000, teams are just 21–28 against the spread traveling to a different time zone on a short week. When the team is an underdog, it drops to 9–19 against the spread, including these situations not covered in six of the last seven times it has come up.
Pierce had a great game plan beating the Chiefs on Christmas, but O’Connell is still not a dependable QB to rely on, abysmal defense or not. He did not complete a pass for the game’s final three quarters against Kansas City. This team is inexperienced, and the travel has a great chance to throw this game off.
Pick: Indianapolis -3, Win: Indianapolis
Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) v Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes is 12–7 against the spread following a loss in his career, and after getting embarrassed on Christmas Day against a division rival he normally strangles on a regular basis, I expect a really sharp Chiefs performance.
Kansas City will be at home against a backup QB who really struggled in the previous week v Pittsburgh. But the Bengals’ defense has been ripped apart by FA and injuries, the run game is not potent enough to steal game clock, and Ja’Marr Chase may not even be healthy enough to play.
Asking this version of the Chiefs to cover more than a full touchdown is dangerous, but this is as good a spot as any for them to do so. They may even take next week off if they are locked in the 3rd seed.
Pick: Kansas City -6.5, Win: Kansas City
Week 17 Stay Aways
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) v Baltimore Ravens
Is this a come-back-to-earth game for Lamar? That’s my inkling as the MVP race has been so shoddy, that it would make perfect sense for Lamar to lay an egg and make all pundits slam their heads against their desks trying to decide a season MVP.
Some Twitter sharps also reminded me Tua lit this defense up last year to the tune of 6 TDs, 469 passing yards, and 42 offensive points. Does this mean anything? Not really, because Baltimore has Mike Macdonald as their DC now, but it does shine a light on Tua’s comfort against this team.
Speaking of comfort, Lamar won another game against the NFC — a conference that seldom sees him play. Miami has a little more experience with Lamar’s game. It’s also fair to say Lamar, as great of a game as he had against that incredible 49er defense, had amazing field position throughout off of turnovers.
Now this team has to travel from coast to coast to face another tough playoff opponent. And with Jalen Ramsey elevating this defense to elite levels (№2 in EPA allowed, №3 in success rate, №2 in rush success rate allowed, the Fins should be able to keep this close.
Pick: Miami +3.5, Win: Miami
Atlanta Falcons (+3) v Chicago Bears
Atlanta’s last six losses have come by a combined 24 points — with none larger than 8 points. This is Heinecke’s second attempt to start for the team, after Desmond Ridder received two attempts as well. So guess what? Atlanta stays in the stay-aways.
I would normally favor the Bears here, who are playing at home in inclement weather, but they are so beaten up offensively. Darnell Mooney in concussion protocol, DJ Moore sprained his ankle and Cole Kmet hasn’t practiced after suffering a knee injury. I’ll adjust this bet once their injury status clears up.
Until then, I’m trusting Atlanta’s defense and Heinecke’s scrappiness as they are still alive in the playoff hunt.
Pick: Atlanta +3, Win: Atlanta
Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) v New York Giants
Tyrod Taylor is back, and this team fights with him as its game-managing QB. In three games where he’s had 16+ pass attempts, Taylor has covered against the Bills, beat the Commanders outright, and put up enough points against Philly to cover as well.
He’s such a steady hand for a team that has had no reliable ways to move down the field. The Rams are a legit wildcard playoff team that Detroit or Philadelphia would not look forward to facing, but Martindale’s heavy-blitz defense could create issues for Stafford — who’s been unbelievably reliable all season.
Additionally, Stafford is just 16–19 against the spread as a road favorite, 4–8 when favored by >3 in these situations.
Pick: New York +6.5, Win: Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) v New Orleans Saints
So much at stake in this game, with Tampa Bay winning the first matchup as an underdog 26–9. Baker had 250 yards and 3 TDs for a near-117 passer rating against this elite defense.
But this is a spot that makes me worried for this Bucs team. The Bucs have been right for us most of the year, and have won 4 of its last five behind Mayfield’s hot play. Is this team good enough to seep the Saints though?
As both a HC and DC dating back to 2015, Allen’s defenses have held their opponents to just 12.4 ppg in 11 games in rematches. And Mayfield, as great as he’s been, has the 10th-most turnover-worthy plays at 19. That’s tough against the turnover-heavy defense.
Baker Mayfield is 26–21 against the spread as an underdog, but is only 13–25–1 against the spread as a favorite in his career. With the Saints playing with their backs against the wall, at home, I’m riding the points.
Pick: New Orleans +2.5, Win: New Orleans
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) v Washington Commanders
You know how I feel with these paunchy spreads, but this 49ers team is different. After losing in prime time, teams of this talent and poise usually bounce back in grand fashion. And who better to bounce back against than the Commanders, who stole the №3 pick slot with just two weeks to go?
The Commanders have so packed it in, even with Brissett suiting up with his 146.8 passer rating. No LT. No Center. Both CBs and a safety are out, leaving Tariq Castro-Fields to guard either Deebo or Aiyuk. He has ONE TACKLE IN HIS CAREER. This is going to be absolutely brutal.
Pick: San Francisco -13.5, Win: San Francisco
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) v Seattle Seahawks
Mason Rudolph looked great and is playing a susceptible, albeit not poor, defense in Seattle. Could it have been a fluke game with him crashing back to Earth, absolutely. But it’s becoming so exhausting figuring out which quarterback will deliver in a certain spot with such little game tape, and Rudolph playing in Seattle is different than playing at home.
The Hawks are fresh off back-to-back game-winning drives leading to wins, with two different QBs guiding one of the drives. But can Seattle win by 4? Seattle hasn’t won by 4 since Oct. 29 against the Browns, which was another game-winning drive scenario.
With extra rest, the Steelers are 14–6 against the spread in the last five seasons, and I trust Tomlin slightly more than Pete Carroll, alongside receiving more than a FG, as these two 8–7 playoff-hopeful teams face off.
Pick: Pittsburgh +4, Win: Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Chargers (+4) v Denver Broncos
Jarret Stidham versus Easton Stick…*throws laptop against wall, accidentally scaring Mabel my cat and regretting my decision*
Oh, and both top wideouts for this team — Keenan Allen and Cortland Sutton — are both out. I’m taking the Chargers just because I’d rather have points in a game I see no clear edge.
Pick: Los Angeles +4, Win: Denver