2023 Week 18 NFL Picks
Saturday Football
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) v Baltimore Ravens
A lot of money is being thrown at Pittsburgh as they simply have something to prove while Baltimore has the least to play for this week. That, mixed with some classic Mike Tomlin voodoo, is all gamblers needed to throw a bet down.
But it’s still one of the freshest rivalries. Both teams hate each other, and Baltimore would love to be the reason Pittsburgh fails to make the playoffs. And Tyler Huntley is a serviceable backup who played in a playoff game literally last year, earning a ridiculous Pro Bowl nod as well. On the other side, it’s Mason Rudolph in bad weather.
Starters be damned, Baltimore should be able to cover this growing spread with its defensive intensity and smart coaching.
Pick: Baltimore +3.5, Win: Pittsburgh
Houston Texans (-1.5) v Indianapolis Colts
In a match that will determine a playoff spot, with two rookie head coaches facing off, I’m simply siding with the better QB in C.J. Stroud. If Gardner Minshew does the improbable and steals this game from Houston, sending him into the playoffs, hats off to him. I’ll be impressed and surprised.
C.J. Stroud against this Gus Bradley bottom-five defense seems like a disaster. Houston’s defense isn’t much better, but it has core pieces in key pieces.
No team in the NFL plays Cover 3 more than the Colts, who use it 54% of the time, according to Twitter. When Stroud faces Cover 3, he ranks 4th in EPA and 4th in ypa while logging 7 TDs and 0 INTs.
In Stroud’s first contest against Indy — his second game as a pro — he went 20/30 for 247 yards and 2 TDs. This defense has shown us it hasn’t changed or developed much since.
Pick: Houston -1.5, Win: Houston
Week 18 Locks
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) v Detroit Lions
Minnesota looked done last week with the decision to start Jaren Hall. Maybe the team thought they had something with him, but that thought left the front office’s brain after 10 pass attempts.
I know Nick Mullens is back to start, but this is one of the biggest “one-two-three-Cancún!” teams. Kirk Cousins went down after playing his best ball. Justin Jefferson missed half the year while T.J. Hockenson was also lost for the year. Brian Flores turned a bottom-five defensive roster into something almost passable? And now this team knows what they have with its run game now that Dalvin Cook is gone.
I like this team in 2024, but they are completely checked out at this point. Detroit isn’t going to roll over with a №2 seed in its sights and Dan Campbell down the team’s throats.
Pick: Detroit -3.5, Win: Detroit
New York Jets (+1.5) v New England Patriots
As a Bill Simmons fan, I’ve heard about this matchup a lot. Now I’m convinced Big Bad Bill Belichick, no matter whether he leaves or stays, is not going to lose to the Jets.
Trevor Siemian is traveling to Foxborough in January. Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas are retaining their jobs, so there’s not much to play for outside of getting the best available draft pick slot.
I called Minnesota a “one-two-three-Cancún” team in my earlier graf, and the Jets are absolutely one of them, just waiting to flee to their offseason vacations where they can hide from any future Aaron Rodgers headlines.
Pick: New England -1.5, Win: New England
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) v Tennessee Titans
Mike Vrabel fired off a strongly-worded press conference about how he hates to lose and will not keel over in the season’s final week.
Trevor Lawrence is still questionable to play (Christian Kirk too) and the Jaguars are in utter free fall, despite a 26–0 win over the Panthers last week. If Lawrence suits up, this might feel like a shoo-in going up against Ryan Tannehill. But the Jags have the sixth-worst graded pass rush, according to PFF, and Tannehill will play stronger at home.
This is a Vrabel pick as the Titans send the Tannehill/Henry tandem out in style.
Pick: Tennessee +5.5, Win: Jacksonville
Chicago Bears (+3) v Green Bay Packers
I have some bets lying around on Green Bay making the playoffs, and if they pull this off, I’ll be very happy. But at this point, in Week 18, there’s nothing I want more than this Bears team as an underdog.
Chicago is 5–2 in its last 7 (those 2 losses were by eight combined points), has already clinched the №1 seed with the Panthers pick, and is fully enjoying the Justin Fields audition to be this team’s long-term QB.
For the Packers, a QB that can escape and make plays with his legs is tough. Tommy Devito just had 71 rush yards en route to a win against this defense. Imagine if they had to face Lamar.
Pick: Chicago +3, Win: Chicago
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) v New York Giants
What’s the tally on Tyrod Taylor? Taylor is 26–25–1 in his career as a starter and is 17–12–1 as a starter in the regular-season and playoffs at home. This guy is the quintessential backup/game manager at QB.
This Eagles team is a disaster defensively, and installing Matt Patricia as the unit’s play-caller was a ridiculous solution.
There is also a notion that the Eagles will sit starters for much of this game due to the extremely low probability that they can win the NFC East. Dallas plays at the same time and if/once the Cowboys get a decent lead, there is a chance Sirianni will pull the plug on his starters.
Pick: NYG +5.5, Win: NYG
Week 18 Dice Throws
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) v Carolina Panthers
I predicted the NFC South would end on a much messier note than Baker and the Bucs cleaning up the race in Week 17. The Bucs lost but are still in the driver’s seat for the division, with the lowly Panthers standing in their way. The Panthers were just shut out against the CJ Beathard-led Jaguars.
But Baker has a rib injury and hasn’t practiced all week after throwing 2 INTs and scoring 0 points in the first three-quarters of last week’s game. Meanwhile, Carolina has a top-half rush defense (#13 on PFF) while Tampa Bay has a bottom-five ground game.
So no run game to rely on and a beat-up QB going against a division rival that is not playing for draft pick placement. I like the Panthers for the points.
Pick: Carolina +5.5, Win: Tampa Bay
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) v Cincinnati Bengals
I think I’m leaning toward the Bengals here because there is no quarterback listed for Cleveland.
Joe Flacco and Myles Garrett are both out resting. Za’Darius Smith, who has the second-most sacks on the team, is out. Amari Cooper sat out practice all week and will rest. Safety Juan Thornhill, cornerback Greg Newsome II, kicker Dustin Hopkins and cornerback Mike Ford are all out.
Even guys like Elijah Moore and linebacker Jordan Kunaszyk are questionable to play. And this is a team that has 28% of their salary cap on IR, according to Pro Football Focus.
On the other side, Jake Browning is ranked №24 for passing, according to PFF. He is a capable backup in this league who’s made big plays.
Pick: Cincinnati -4.5, Win: Cincinnati
Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) v Los Angeles Chargers
This Chiefs team can barely cover a below-7 spread with Patrick Mahomes, why would they get close to covering without his heroics?
Kansas City sat its starters in 2020 in a Week 18 game against the Chargers, and the Bolts beat KC 38–21 … in Kansas City. Now that was with Justin Herbert, not Easton Stick, but the spread was -7 and that was a stronger Cheifs team.
Khalil Mack, Derwin James and others have contract incentives to play for against Kansas City’s backups, while Austin Ekeler may be playing his last game as a Charger. And, even with Easton Stick guiding the offense, the team has ranked 24th in net success rate last two weeks. For his whole tenure as a starter, 31st. Progress!
Pick: Los Angeles -3.5, Win: Los Angeles
Dallas Cowboys (-13) v Washington Commanders
Washington has completely bowed out of competition this year. They have lost 7 in a row, and while some of the losses are close, that’s only because Jacoby Brissett has played some Herculean ball in spots.
But Dallas is playing this game guns blazing in order to clinch a division title and not be a wildcard. When Dallas played Washington in Texas, it was a 45–10 drubbing. Even if it’s a little closer due to Washington being home, there’s still plenty of wiggle room to cover 13.
Pick: Dallas -13, Win: Dallas
Week 18 Stay Aways
Atlanta Falcons (+3) v New Orleans Saints
I went into this fantasy season wanting two things: No players from the Jaguars or Falcons. I was wrong on the Jags, as I eventually wound up trading to Calvin Ridley (which sucked) while missing Etienne (who, at least, was great before the free fall). But for Atlanta, glad I dodged the headache.
Outside of Carolina games, the underdogs in divisional games involving the Saints, Bucs and Falcons are 5–0 against the spread. But it’s time to retire the Falcons as a pick. The team has Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum at quarterback, and Arthur Smith has simply failed at elevating or developing talent, at least on the offensive side.
Playing in a dome will help Atlanta, but it will also help New Orleans. Derek Carr is 32–48 on the road and is 7–18 lifetime against the spread in his last 25 road games. At home, he’s much more effective.
Pick: New Orleans -3, Win: New Orleans
Seattle Seahawks (-3) v Arizona Cardinals
I was so ready to take the Cardinals and the points as this Hawks team really needs to be put out to pasture. Yes, making the playoffs in the first two seasons sans Russell Wilson would be impressive, but this team is nothing more than a first-round exit.
That being said, there is no value at -3 against a 4-win team with the league’s worst defense. If it was -4.5 or even -5.5, I’d jump on the Cardinals. But when Seattle has faced a bottom-10 team this year — TEN, AZ, WSH, NYG and CAR — they have won all of them and are 3–1–1 against the spread. Additionally, this is the lowest spread among those games.
No team plays more Cover 4 coverage than Arizona on defense and Geno Smith thrives against Cover 4, ranking 5th in EPA and 7th in YPA. Arizona’s defense also has injuries at this point piling up.
Seattle stays alive!
Pick: Seattle -3, Win: Seattle
Denver Broncos (+2.5) v Las Vegas Raiders
Ah, ye ol’ classic Jarrett Stidham v Aidan O’Connell matchup. The Raiders have won six in a row v Denver, but I just don’t know what version of the Raiders are we getting.
In the last month, this team lost to Minnesota 3–0, dropped 63 on the Chargers to send Brandon Staley packing, beat the Chiefs despite O’Connell failing to complete a pass for three quarters, and then lost to Indianapolis 23–20 with O’Connell throwing for 300 yards and 2 TDs.
I’m leaning Broncos because Sean Payton is going to have this team ready and focused. They want to end the year strong without Russell Wilson. As for the Raiders, this is probably Antonio Pierce’s last game. Is he going to play spoiler on this pick? Maybe, that’s why it’s a stay away!
Pick: Denver +2.5, Win: Denver
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) v San Francisco 49ers
This entire season, I’ve always thought the Rams were thin talent-wise on the roster. Meaning, once the big names go down with injuries, this team is cooked. While they have proven this theory wrong all season, I still don’t like this team’s backups.
Carson Wentz is getting the start. He had nine INTS and 6 fumbles (1 lost) in eight games for the Commanders last year. Maybe he’s a competent backup, but it’s nowhere near the magic of Sam Darnold and Kyle Shanahan. These two absolutely love each other and this is a great showcase for their chemistry as a duo.
Darnold looked good against Baltimore in garbage time, so I’m trusting the backup who’s actually played competent football in 2023.
Pick: San Francisco -3.5, Win: San Francisco
Buffalo Bills (-3) v Miami Dolphins
Wow, what a matchup. I’m not taking too much into Buffalo’s 48–20 win against Miami earlier in the year. That was one week after Miami hung 70 on Denver and was going to have the most obvious “fall-to-Earth” performance while that was also Buffalo’s last game at home before a London trip.
The problem with taking Miami now is the injuries. Waddle and Mostert are out while defensively, Xavien Howard, Bradley Chubb, Keion Crossen and Jaelan Phillips are all out. Jevon Holland is also questionable.
Weirdly enough, it’s not Josh Allen or the offense driving this team’s second-half success. The Bills pass offense is just 24th in success rate over the last four weeks while Josh Allen is just 14th in EPA in that stretch.
In their last eight games played in December or January, Miami is 6–2 against the spread.
Pick: Miami +3, Win: Miami