2024 NFL Wildcard Picks (for the 2023 season)
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) v Houston Texans
Houston is the inferior team across the board, no matter how much of the team’s salary is on IR, but Houston has the stronger QB who’s come through in clutch situations. But the playoffs are a different animal for rookie QBs. First-time playoff QBs facing a non-first-time playoff QB are just 17–35–1 against the spread in the last 20 years. Rookie QBs are just 1–4–1 against the spread since 2010 when not facing another first-time playoff QB.
Cleveland also has the sixth-ranked defense according to PFF which features the DPOY favorite Myles Garrett. It should be fair to note that Stroud is just 28th in PFF grade when pressured, having one of the biggest drops in performance from clean pocket to pressure in the league.
Offensively, Joe Flacco torched Houston for 368 yards and 3 TDs just three weeks ago while Amari Cooper went nuclear.
Pick: Cleveland -2.5, Win: Cleveland
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) v Kansas City Chiefs
Miami is traveling from Florida to Missouri, where the game’s temperature is expected to be -1 degrees with wind chills of -30 degrees, snow and 29 mph winds. This isn’t strong Dolphins weather. Additionally, edge rushers Jalean Philips, Bradley Chubb, Andrew Van Ginkle, LB Jerome Baker and CB Xavien Howard are all out, and that’s just on the defensive side.
And Tua has taken a step back in the second half of the season amid all the injuries and defenses figuring out these hyper schemes. Tua had an 18–7 TD:INT ratio for a passer rating of 109. In his last nine games, his TD:INT ratio is just 11–7, and his passer rating dropped to 94.
Now this battered team with the wind out of its tropical sails has to take on Patrick Mahomes, who’s 10–2 when playing in Kansas City come January.
Pick: Kansas City -3.5, Win: Kansas City
Pittsburgh Steelers (+10.5) v Buffalo Bills
This is a much scarier game to bet on. I don’t normally like to take underdogs for points where I don’t think they can win straight-up, but the game is expected to have temperatures in the mid-20s with 20+mph sustained winds and gusts over 30 mph. It got so strong and dangerous, that the game was delayed the day of.
Since 2000, underdogs of 7 points or more in a game with winds of 20+mph cover at a 56% rate against the spread. When the spread reaches 10+, underdogs are 12–6 in these situations.
Buffalo is on a five-game winning streak that sent them into the postseason, but those wins have come by 39 combined points. That’s a margin of over a TD, but if you take out the Easton Stick LAC primetime game, the margin of victory drops to 18 over 4 games.
Pick: Pittsburgh +10.5, Win: Buffalo
Green Bay Packers (+7.5) v Dallas Cowboys
There’s a theory I’m going to steal that I’ve been hearing at work: Always be scared of the team that is peaking at the right time. Green Bay has won 6 of its last 8, Aaron Jones is getting healthy at the right time (three straight 100-yard games heading into this matchup), this team survived the Jaire Alexander situation, and Jordan Love threw for 32 TDs this season! That’s second in the league behind his opponent, Dak Prescott.
Dallas is averaging 37.4 ppg at home and has only scored less than 30 points at home once all year. But, LB De’Vondre Campbell and CB Jaire Alexander have only played five games together, and this defense is simply different with both of them playing together.
Mike McCarthy is a notoriously bad game manager, especially in the playoffs, giving me another reason to think this game can be close. We’ve had great matchups between these teams before in the playoffs (2014, 2016), so why not have another one?
Pick: Green Bay +7.5, Win: Green Bay
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) v Detroit Lions
What’s scaring me about this game is how many people are clamoring for the Rams, and not the home favorite — who will be playing in front of starved fans for the first time in 30 years.
The Rams ranked 9th in EPA on offense all year, and that includes multiple game injuries to Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams and Matt Stafford missing a game. This Rams team will score on Detroit. It’s whether Detroit will be able to keep up. If Raheem Morris and Sean McVay can scheme a defense that shines a light on all of Jared Goff’s warts (which they’ve seen up close and personal), this is going to be a wildcard upset.
The Rams have scored 26+ in six straight games, including against some elite defenses. They have faced the Browns (#1), Ravens (#2) and Saints (#5) in that scoring stretch.
Pick: LAR +3.5, Win: LAR
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m out on the Eagles. I always thought this was going to be a double-digit win team that could win a playoff game but ultimately not compete for a title with the loss of its important coordinators. Now, after the Eagles have lost 4 of 5 including losses to three teams that missed the playoffs, this team has been singing “one-two-three-Cancun” for weeks.
The straw that broke the camel’s back for me was A.J. Brown deleting all of his Eagles-related social media. Seems insignificant, but the vibes are clearly off. They are not off for Baker’s Bucs, which has a roster’s worth of guys willing to run through a wall for Baker after his play. 17 games he suited up and he delivered a division title despite multiple injuries.
The Eagles have allowed the 3rd-highest rate of explosive pass plays in the NFL at 12.1% in the final seven games, not a successful formula for Baker slinging it to Mike Evans and company.
Pick: Tampa Bay +3, Win: Tampa Bay