2024 Week 3 NFL Picks

Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots (+6) v. New York Jets

Clev Analytics revealed teams like the New England Patriots are a stunning 5–24 ATS (19%) since 2000 when they come off an OT game the prior Sunday into a TNF game.

This even happened last year. The Washington Commanders came off an OT loss to the Eagles and then got destroyed by the Bears 40–20 despite being a six-point favorite in that game on TNF.

And this Patriots squad is beat up in all the important places. On the offensive line, Sow and Lowe on the left side have been ruled out. Robinson is injured, but could suit up, while the center Andrews is also questionable.

The Jets aren’t a clean bill of health either, and have a major obstacle to overcome — playing its third game in 12 days, but at least they are home tonight, and that crowd will be feral for some legitimate Aaron Rodgers play.

I also feel that Jacoby Brissett is an easy quarterback to solve and put away if a team is equipped with a smart, savvy defense. He started 9/13 passing, primarily targeting TE Hunter Henry, before going just 6/14 the rest of the way. Saleh and his slew of defensive weapons should be able to handle this simplistic offensive approach.

Pick: New York -6, Win: New York

Homer pick

Seattle Seahawks (-4) v. Miami Dolphins

Miami may have the rest advantage after laying an egg on Thursday night, but Mike Macdonald’s defense gets to face off against Skylar Thompson. Remember Skylar Thompson? He was the guy who lost to Buffalo 34–31 in a 2022 wildcard playoff game. But he also had a 44 passer rating, two turnovers and profited off a defensive touchdown.

Skylar Thompson on the road traveling across the country? It’s a tough spot. It also doesn’t help that the team’s two strongest weapons — its speed from its receivers — will be countered by (statistically) the most potent cornerback duo in the league right now.

As for the Seahawks’ poor offensive line, it still has Charles Cross — the left tackle who has given up 0 pressures on 76 snaps (the most of any offensive lineman who’s yet to give up a pressure).

And it’s not like Miami’s pass rush has been intimidating. According to PFF, the unit ranks 20th in the league. They rank 31st in QB hits and 23rd in sacks per game.

Love this spot for the Seahawks.

Pick: Seattle -4, Win: Seattle

Locks

Chicago Bears (+1.5) v. Indianapolis Colts

One thing I’ve personally learned about this Bears team 2 weeks in? The defense that was “pretty staunch” in the back half of last season has carried over. The defense has given up just three touchdowns and 36 points, including just 19 to Houston.

The offense is another story, but it will improve as the season progresses. And the perfect opportunity is against this Colts defense, the 22nd-ranked rush defense, according to PFF, allowing a league-worst 237 rush yards.

I still love Anthony Richardson long-term, but he is extremely turnover-prone and vulnerable to a defense like Chicago’s.

Both teams got embarrassed last week, but Chicago was embarrassed on primetime. Advantage Chicago.

Pick: Chicago +1.5, Win: Chicago

Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5) v. Pittsburgh Steelers

3–0 Steelers here we come! This is a really tough spot for the Chargers. They devoured the lowly, pathetic Panthers and beat the Raiders by double digits, but this defense will be a real test.

Now, according to some medical professionals, Justin Herbert is dealing with a high ankle sprain, and there is an approximate 60% chance he won’t play. If he does, he’s going against the PFF-ranked №6 defense that includes T.J. Watt.

It’s going to be an ugly game, and the Chargers don’t have enough weapons to overcome this defense given Herbert’s injury.

Pick: Pittsburgh -1.5, Win: Pittsburgh

Carolina Panthers (+6) v. Las Vegas Raiders

Andy Dalton filled in for Bryce Young in one game last year, against Seattle. He lost 38–28 and put up 361 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. With no 2024 tape on him (like Malik Willis), he should have a hot initial game back before defenses adjust.

Yes, Las Vegas’ pass rush is intense. Maxx Crosby is unbelievable. But this is the highest value the Raiders will be all year, 1–1 coming off a win against Baltimore. I don’t think this is a very competitive team, so I’m excited to zag now with a full 6-point spread.

Carolina doesn’t even rank poorly across the board this year. According to PFF, Carolina is 9th in pass and run blocking, 17th in rushing defense and 6th in tackling. It’s not much, but enough to actually push the ball downfield in a competitive way.

Like Jacoby Brissett in those opening two games, Dalton is a grown-up who can steady a turbulent situation. Everyone in Carolina is playing for their jobs as well to distance themselves from the Bryce Young fiasco.

Pick: Carolina +6, Win: Carolina

Dice throws

Denver Broncos (+6) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Call me lazy, I figured the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were due for a similar regression the Seattle Seahawks faced in 2023 when Dave Canales left the team. But they have picked up right where they left off, and the losses they faced on defense in the offseason haven’t factored in nearly as much as I initially thought.

Meanwhile, this Denver offense is atrocious. Bo Nix looks like he wasn’t ready to play in Week 1, and he looks like he’s not prepared to play now. And he’s paired with an anemic rushing attack, bulky receivers who can’t create space in an offense that desperately needs YAC and an offensive line that simply can’t block for the run.

I was so impressed Baker Mayfield stayed cool and composed despite being under fire from Aidan Hutchinson’s 4.5 sacks last week, and there is no way Denver’s pass rush compares.

Pick: Tampa Bay -6, Win: Tampa Bay

Houston Texans (-2.5) v. Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins who? Head coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores are putting on a coaching clinic, winning by more than 20 against a sorry team like the Giants and then controlling a game against an elite team like the 49ers quarter-to-quarter.

So why not ride this high until it crashes? When Sam Darnold is exposed and the team goes bell up on a Sunday, we can reevaluate.

It’s not like Houston has been lighting it up this year, despite the improvements to its loaded roster. They won by 2 against one of the five worst defenses in Week 1, and then followed that up with 19 points on primetime.

Also, when Houston is favored in the Stroud era, they are just 3–5–1 against the spread.

Pick: Minnesota +2.5, Win: Minnesota

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) v. New Orleans Saints

If it grew to 3+, I’d be scared of the cover in a potential shootout, but similar to my Minnesota Vikings pick, let’s ride this New Orleans explosive high until it comes crashing down. It might take a couple of weeks with this team the way they are flying around.

What’s wild about this New Orleans start is how little Carr is throwing the ball. Carr has the least amount of pass attempts in the league, and Olave has only caught 6 balls this year. There are more layers to this offense as the year goes on.

And if the secret to running an elite team is having a tag team of coaches that complement each other, New Orleans is the running of one of the best duos. I despise Dennis Allen as a head coach, but if Clint Kubiak is doing the heavy lifting on offense, leaving Allen to scheme up his usual elite defenses, here we go!

Pick: New Orleans -2.5, Win: New Orleans

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) v. Tennessee Titans

Two games for the Titans, two golden opportunities for them to at least cover, let alone win the game. But Will Levis has made ridiculous decision after ridiculous decision, to the point where head coach Dave Canales just calls him out publicly weekly.

Look, this bet is null and void if Jordan Love plays. I just don’t see that happening. They got a win with Malik Willis, they can split his two starts and get a healthier Jordan Love in Week 4.

So, assuming it’s Willis, this is a hard team for him to face because it’s his former squad. The team that drafted him. The team that knows his strengths and many weaknesses well.

Tennesee has looked competitive and professional outside of the quarterback decision, but this week, they face a quarterback who’s even more prone to mistakes. Willis caught everyone off guard last week (or really just Gus Bradley), but with tape on him, and an angry 0–2 team, I like the Titans’ odds.

Pick: Tennessee -2.5, Win: Tennesee

Detroit Lions (-3) v. Arizona Cardinals

C’mon Detroit, where’s this world-beating prowess I was excited for? A two-headed rushing attack. A passing offense with three levels on every play. An amazing offensive line. 14 games in a dome. And yet they’ve mustered 36 regulation points through 2 weeks.

I say, it wakes up here. Arizona’s defense is ranked 28th and is vulnerable to strong rushing offenses in the red zone — defense is in the bottom-fourth in rushing touchdowns allowed.

And this needs to be the spot where Jarred Goff gets back to his old self. He’s struggled in the first two games, but those games could be directly related to Goff opting out of preseason. Look at Aaron Rodgers in his first two games compared to Thursday Night Football v. New England.

Expect a game plan heavily featuring David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Pick: Detroit -3, Win: Detroit

Baltimore Ravens (-1) v. Dallas Cowboys

I was down on Baltimore this year with Mike Macdonald coming to my hometown in addition to many free agents parting ways with Maryland. But do I think they are 0–3 bad? No I do not.

Dallas took care of Cleveland, then fell on their faces against New Orleans. Was that game a fluke? Or is Dallas a notch below playoff-hopeful franchises this year?

Baltimore’s defense is not what it was in 2023, but it should be able to handle Ceedee Lamb and…who else? Brandin Cooks, an injured Jake Ferguson and Dallas’ 26th-ranked rushing offense with Ezekiel Elliot, Rico Dowdle and others.

Baltimore is not nearly as dominant as they were last year, but they should not be considered a mere point better than Dallas.

Pick: Baltimore -1, Win: Baltimore

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5) v. Buffalo Bills

Did you know Trevor Lawrence has a lower completion percentage than Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, Caleb Williams, Will Levis and Deshaun Watson? His on-target percentage is nearly identical to Anthony Richardson, without the athleticism, arm strength and sheer size at his disposal.

The stat being passed around this week is Lawrence is 0–7 in his last seven starts, and his stats in those games are mediocre at best.

But it is a 0–2 team battling a 2–0 team, and 0–2 teams cover at a 60% rate. I thought this Jacksonville team would have more fight this season in Year 4, and its got to show up right now.

Pick: Jacksonville +5, Win: Buffalo

Stay Aways

New York Giants (+6.5) v. Cleveland Browns

Feeling ripped off after the New York Giants should have won and covered against Washington if they had a HEALTHY kicker at their disposal.

But New York didn’t force a single punt in last week’s game, allowing seven scoring drives (all field goals). It would be one thing if the Giants had something of a defense to anchor a 6.5-spread wager on, but it’s just as reliable as Deshaun Watson.

In this matchup of unreliable, I’m leaning on the trends. 0–2 teams cover against teams that have won at least one game at a 57% rate in Week 3 this century. Additionally, Daniel Jones is surprisingly 21–15 against the spread in his career after a loss.

Pick: NYG, Win: Cleveland

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) v. Los Angeles Rams

It’s just a battle of injury reports at this point. WR Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua, offensive lineman Jonah Jackson, Steve Avilla and Joe Noteboom and CB Darius Williams are all injured for the Rams and are expected to be out.

For San Francisco, WR Deebo Samuel, HB Christian McCaffrey and TE George Kittle are all going to be absent in this game.

In a battle of injuries, I might as well take the points. The Rams are 16–9 against the spread when Sean McVay is an underdog of 3 or more. Within the division in this scenario, the Rams are 8–1 against the spread. And after a 31-point divisional loss in Week 2, tanking this team to 0–2, they will be playing for their football lives.

Pick: LAR +6.5, Win: San Francisco

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) v. Atlanta Falcons

Patrick Mahomes is merely 14–18 against the spread when he’s a road favorite of more than 3. That makes this game a tough spot to gamble on as we are dealing with two different Kirk Cousins. The one facing a heavy pass rush, and the one with a clean pocket.

Chris Jones can single-handedly ruin Atlanta’s game plan by creating pressure right down the middle.

According to Twitter sharps and their interesting trends, teams that won as an underdog on Monday night are 31–40 against the spread since 2000 when paying at home the following game.

The Chiefs have also faced against Baltimore and Cincinnati to start the year. This is their easiest opponent yet, playing indoors, and should be able to take advantage.

Pick: Kansas City -3.5, Win: Kansas City

Washington Commanders (+7.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals

Zac Taylor did it again. The team is now 1–11 while under his watch in the first weeks of a season. But now it’s Week 3, and Tee Higgins is expected to be back alongside the fussy Ja’Marr Chase.

Washington’s defense was rumored to be atrocious coming into this season, and it has lived up to that expectation. Baker Mayfield had four passing touchdowns in Week 1 against the Commanders, and then Daniel Jones scored three touchdowns the following week.

Until I learn more about Joe Burrow’s health and his state of play, I’m going to take the points as Jayden Daniels has proven through the first two weeks of the season that he can at least move the ball downfield. Terry McLaurin has struggled out of the gate, but I love the acquisition of Noah Brown.

Pick: Washington +7.5, Win: Cincinnati