2024 Week 4 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) v. New York Giants
I think there’s definitely a world where Dak Prescott lights up the Giants on premature prime-time against this Giants secondary. This team can’t run (29th in success rate and 29th in PFF grade) and honestly shouldn’t pretend to.
And that’s if you trust head coach Mike McCarthy to do so.
There’s a lot to point here for the Giants. Devin Singletary has been good to start the year and plays the league-worst run defense (by far), while Daniel Jones can also make plays with his legs.
This team also has the pass rush (6th in PFF grade) to disrupt an offense.
But Daniel Jones is 1–13 in prime-time games and just 5–9 against the spread, while Dak is 21–12 against the spread as a road favorite in his career.
The Giants have a real chance to show they are competitive this season. They got blown out by Minnesota in Jones’ first game back from his season-ending injury, then lost to an up-and-coming Washington team because they forgot a kicker (talk about a bad betting beat), and then looked pretty impressive against Cleveland’s defense, despite spotting them a free 7 points at the start. A win here and they are 2–2.
Do I believe this? Not yet. Let’s have them prove us wrong first because this is a big game for Dallas, and they should come out guns blazing.
Pick: Dallas -5.5, Win: Dallas
Homer Pick
Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) v. Detroit Lions
The Seattle Seahawks will be without Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu, Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II this Monday against the Detroit Lions, one of the most threatening rush offenses in the league.
Additionally, despite Detroit’s offensive struggles, the team is fifth in third-down percentage this year compared to Seattle’s №19 rank.
At least Kenneth Walker returns for Seattle, but I expect them to struggle against this NFC contender, who’s also getting Sam LaPorta back.
I like Seattle’s answers to Detroit’s offensive weapons defensively, with Julian Love countering previous tight ends and the elite cornerback duo being able to limit Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, but the injuries to the defensive line make this team too vulnerable.
Pick: Detroit -3.5, Win: Detroit
Locks
Los Angeles Rams (+3) v. Chicago Bears
You guys know how tepid and scared I am as a Seahawks homer giving points to Sean McVay, especially when he’s lining up against a mistake-prone rookie quarterback and Matt Eberflus.
But Bill Simmons of The Ringer continued to bring up a good point throughout the week: If the fake punt failed and San Francisco held serve for the rest of the contest, we’d be giving our Rams eulogies by this point.
But a fluke play, long drives and taking advantage of key injuries on the other side of the ball kept the Rams alive. I just don’t think they duplicate their magical efforts from last week again.
The Rams have a 26th PFF-ranked defense this year compared to Chicago’s 7th, and while the Rams are out of options for offensive weapons, Chicago has more than enough to pivot to. Keenan Allen struggling with an early injury? Throw in Rome Odunze. De’Andre Swift can’t run in a Shane Wooldren offense? Give Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert more snaps.
No Rams starting CBs are graded higher than a 53 in coverage, according to PFF.
Lastly, Chicago should play better at home. Rookie QBs are 59% against the spread at home in the first eight weeks of the season.
Pick: Chicago -3, Win: Chicago
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) v. Los Angeles Chargers
Patrick Mahomes is 8–2 against the Chargers with 25 touchdowns against six interceptions.
But this is a new Chargers team under head coach Jim Harbaugh. The defense is improved, the time of possession has improved, and the dumb mistakes are way down.
Justin Herbert is battered and bruised, but it sounds like he’s suiting up. This alone makes me confident in a cover.
Kansas City should win this game, but they love playing it close and squeezing out victories.
Pick: Los Angeles +7.5, Win: Kansas City
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) v. Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas, a team I’ve been down on all of this season, has its two most impactful players out with injuries for this game. Both Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby are out, ouch.
With those absolute forces out, Cleveland should take care of business bouncing back against its own extremely disappointing loss to the Giants.
The Raiders have one of the worst tackling and pass coverage grades in the whole league, which should give Deshaun Watson some help to piece together a half-decent performance for once. It’s tough to gamble and wager on Watson, but Minshew, on the other side, is not much of an upgrade, especially sans Adams.
Pick: Cleveland -1.5, Win: Cleveland
Tennessee Titans (+2.5) v. Miami Dolphins
The Tennessee Titans have burned me so many times already, and it’s just been three weeks. In terms of net success, the Titans rank №13. Will Levis just keeps turning the ball over at horrible times, either deep in their own territory or its opponents.
Miami is receiving a slight upgrade with Tyler Huntley playing QB instead of Skylar Thompson, but can this team reach 20 points? Tennessee’s defense has proven to be effective and can hold its own.
It’s always a wild ride betting on Levis, but I don’t think Miami is any more consistent of an option with them moving to its third quarterback in just as many weeks.
Pick: Tennesee +2.5, Win: Tennesee
Dice Throws
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) v. Carolina Panthers
Much like fading the Cincinnati Bengals under Zac Taylor during the first two weeks of the season is a smart move, jumping on their bounce-back is just as intelligent of a move.
And we have some evidence of them looking like the squad they should be. According to ClevTA, the Bengals offense did not punt for the entire game Monday night and Burrow’s +0.482 EPA and 60% success rate both ranked as his 6th best game of his entire career.
Ja’Marr Chase is locked in. Tee Higgins is back. Mike Gesicki fits this offense as another weapon. Andrei Iosivas has seven career TDs in 42 career targets. And Zach Moss looks good! This offense should be full throttle and should outpace whatever high Carolina is on right now.
Andy Dalton’s revenge game be damned, he ain’t keeping up in a shootout. I’m expecting a multi-score lead, much like Cincinnati thoroughly beating Arizona last year 34–20 after a 1–3 start.
Pick: Cincinnati -4.5, Win: Cincinnati
Minnesota Vikings (+3) v. Green Bay Packers
Alright, let’s nerd out for a second here. Minnesota is +60.5 over its margin against the spread — the third most this century through three weeks. Seven other teams have had a +50 margin against the spread in that time frame. But in Week 4? Those seven teams went 1–6 against the spread.
Too long, didn’t read? This might be the perfect time to catch a Vikings fade.
Additionally, Jordan Love is coming back after two straight wins with Malik Willis (who I thought was one of the worst backups in the league), and the team’s defense has given up 24 combined points in the last two weeks after Philadelphia laid 34 in Brazil on them.
Green Bay head coach LaFleur is 19–11 against the spread against NFC North teams, and this is a big test for Sam Darnold traveling to Lambeau.
Pick: Green Bay -3, Win: Green Bay
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) v. Houston Texans
Uuugghh, backing this Jacksonville team sucks. But teams have a tendency to bounce back after a prime-time disaster. Yes, Houston also flopped against Minnesota, but at least it was buried amongst seven other 10 a.m. kick-offs.
It’s a “throw anything and everything against the wall” game for Jacksonville. I truly believe head coach Doug Pedersen is down to his final loss and will do all sorts of unpredictable stuff with his game plan to keep the game competitive.
And it’s not like Houston has proven to be the world beaters they were advertised to be. They beat the Colts by 2 while allowing Anthony Richardson to have his best performance under center (by far). They beat Chicago without scoring 20, and then they got walloped by Minnesota the same way Daniel Jones and the Giants did.
This game is closer than a spread like this.
Pick: Jacksonville +7, Win: Houston
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
These Bucs laid an absolute egg against the Denver Broncos, but I’m not out on them just yet. They are going to be coming out red hot and already have a history of success against this Eagles team, including a resounding playoff win.
I just want to avoid the Eagles unless the line is screaming at me. The head coach undermined his offensive coordinator, Jalen Hurts is all over the place with his accuracy and turnovers, and this team is suffering from a lot of key offensive injuries.
A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and both tackles are most likely out. On the opposite side, Tampa Bay’s run game is going to get a Bears-esque jolt with additional snaps to fantasy favorite Bucky Irving.
Mike Evans is also due for a monster game against this defense.
Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5, Win: Tampa Bay
Washington Commanders (+3.5) v. Arizona Cardinals
The Commanders stole the show Monday night after upsetting the Bengals, but their defense is still so laughably bad (sorry Seattle legend Bobby Wagner) that any cover seems nearly impossible to predict.
And Arizona’s offense looks lethal, despite injuries to TE Trey McBride and WR Greg Dortch. Through three weeks, Arizona lost to Buffalo in a shootout, killed the Rams by 31, and then lost to Detroit in a single-score game.
Jayden Daniels needs to duplicate his efforts weekly to keep this team above water with that anchor of a defense, and as a rookie QB, there’s going to be some bumpier weeks.
Teams coming off a Monday night game and are on the road are just 23–28 against the spread since 2000. When those teams are underdogs while on the road for the second game, they have just covered 10 times out of the last 29 attempts.
Pick: Arizona -3.5, Win: Arizona
Stay Aways
New Orleans Saints (+3) v. Atlanta Falcons
Well, and just by Week 3, things came crashing back down to Earth for New Orleans. With three weeks of data, we’ve seen the Saints defeat the Carolina Panthers and the Dallas Cowboys (two 1–2 squads) while losing to Philadelphia despite the Eagles having two failed fourth downs and a -1 turnover differential.
That Eagles team also was without its top two wide receivers and two linemen.
Atlanta is on the opposite side. A disappointing 1–2 start but that came against Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Kansas City (8–1 combined record). And Atlanta, while not lighting up the box score, has looked really competitive in those games.
And this is a team that is only improving with Raheem Morris’ decision-making plus Kirk Cousins getting his sealegs back and building chemistry with his offense.
Throw in home turf and some extra motivation Twitter keeps reminding us of — New Orleans running up the score last year 41–17 with Jameis Winston ignoring head coach Dennis Allen — and that’s a winning Atlanta concoction.
The problem is the line has ballooned from 1.5 to 3, so taking New Orleans for the close cover.
Pick: New Orleans +3, Win: Atlanta
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) v. Indianapolis Colts
Three straight weeks picking the Steelers on this blog, and three straight wins to show for it. Why stop now?
The Colts are beat up on defense — losing DT Deforrest Buckner, DE Kwity Paye and CB Kenny Moore — but this Steelers offense is already ineffective, scoring 51 points this season.
George Pickens. Pat Freiermuth. Najee Harris. You know what you’re getting with that bunch.
The problem is this game is in a dome with two mobile, explosive on the ground QBs. One QB is paired with arguably the best defense in the league, while the other has a very porous run defense and very little pass rush.
The Colts may also be on a bit of a high when it comes to luck. After facing Malik Willis and Caleb Williams the last two weeks, opponents have two missed FGs, two turnovers and a loss of down while inside the Colts 40 this season. That’s good for the second biggest gap in expected points allowed versus actual points allowed.
Lastly, between Richardon and Fields, the former has six turnovers. The latter has one.
Pick: Pittsburgh -1.5, Win: Pittsburgh
Denver Broncos (+8) v. New York Jets
The New York Jets looked great on Thursday, get extra rest for their Week 4 matchup, and get to play a rookie QB at home? Sounds too good to be true.
But Denver’s defense, and overall performance, was very strong against a team I still kinda like in Tampa Bay. Patrick Surtain has shut down every elite receiver he’s been matched up with this year so far, and I still don’t love this offense when either Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are shut out of the game plan.
Denver’s pass rush has proven to be top-half-of-the-league-worthy as well.
If Bo Nix can hold up against the Jets, I like the cover.
Pick: Denver +8, Win: New York
New England Patriots (+10) v. San Francisco 49ers
I normally never want to be on the side of the team laying more than 10 points while the opponent has had 10 days off.
But SF was absolutely embarrassed blowing a multi-score lead to a Kupp + Nacua-less Rams team. I still believe the coaching gap in this matchup is massive, and the 49ers should bounce back on a potentially bottom-five squad.
George Kittle is back, “third-and-Jauan” is rolling and Jordan Mason is making up for CMC’s absence. Yes, long-term injuries to Trent Williams and this team losing Hargrave for the year make me worried about their prospects. But against New England? Pshhhh.
Did you know Brock Purdy has the highest PFF passing grade on the year this year? He’s quietly been great despite the 1–2 start, giving me more confidence in an SF bounce-back.
Pick: San Francisco -10, Win: San Francisco
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) v. Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo has outscored its last two opponents 78–20, led by MVP favorite Josh Allen. It’s a team firing on all cylinders at nearly 100%, winning nine of its last 10 games dating back to last year, with the one loss coming against the soon-to-be Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
Baltimore, meanwhile, already won its must-win game against Dallas. And even then, Dallas scored 19 straight points in the fourth quarter. Baltimore put up just seven points in the second half, worse than the 14 they put up in the second half against the Raiders and 10 second-half points against the Chiefs.
In a toss-up game against two stalwart playoff teams anchored by MVP-caliber QBs, why not take the points and the better team? Home-field advantage be damned.
Pick: Buffalo +2.5, Win: Buffalo