2024 Week 10 NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football
Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) v. Baltimore Ravens
The line feels abnormally high and reactive to last week’s blowout win over the Denver Broncos. I was wrong on that pick, but I still feel confident in fading the Ravens once more.
This is an AFC North matchup, and one where the Bengals have already proven they can go toe-to-toe with this familiar foe. Yes, this time it’s in Baltimore, but the Ravens lost to the Browns two weeks ago in another back-and-forth AFC North clash.
I like the Ravens to win on a short week under Harbaugh, but this is just too many points. It’s not like a backdoor cover is not on the table with Joe Burrow’s play of late and Baltimore’s porous fourth-quarter defense.
Burrow is 13–2 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 or more in games he started and finished.
Pick: Cincinnati +5.5, Win: Baltimore
Locks
San Francisco 49ers (-6) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s another tough spot for the depleted Bucs. Just in terms of rest, this is as significant a disadvantage as they come. The Bucs defense played more than 80 defensive plays last week on a Monday in a game that went into overtime. San Francisco, meanwhile, is coming off a bye and is getting a major reinforcement.
Christian McCaffrey is back! And he’ll get the lion’s share of the carries.
The Bucs have allowed 27 or more points in five straight games. Four of those opponents are strong playoff teams, but this also happened against New Orleans. If Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are suiting up, the 49ers might drop 40 on the Bucs.
Pick: San Francisco, Win: San Francisco
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) v. New Orleans Saints
This Saints team has done some pretty incredible things this year. After logging arguably the most impressive offensive start since the 2013 Broncos and the 1999 Rams, they have lost seven straight. They are down their top two receiving options, got a former team legend calling for the quarterback’s head, have a running back who was nearly medically cleared put on IR, and one of the worst cap situations in the history of the sport.
Now, most recently, the head coach has been fired. And that means new coach theory is in play. Teams have a tendency to play really inspired football directly after a coach has been fired, and players really hated playing for Dennis Allen.
Atlanta has been grooving, but with the Falcons’ nonexistent pass rush (9 sacks in 9 games, worth in the league), any opposing team has a chance to cover.
Pick: New Orleans +3.5, Win: Atlanta
Denver Broncos (+8.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs
This one is pretty simple: Kansas City loves to win and hates to cover large spreads. When Patrick Mahomes is playing, Kansas City covers spreads 42% of the time as a favorite of 7 or more. But Kansas City is 50–5 straight up in these games.
I like Denver’s defense still despite Lamar Jackson absolutely thumping them. I like how Bo Nix is playing this early into his career despite lackluster offensive talent. And according to Twitter sharps, Sean Payton is 9–4 against the spread as an underdog of 7 or more.
Pick: Denver +8.5, Win: Kansas City
Minnesota Vikings (-7) v. Jacksonville Jaguars
QB Trevor Lawrence is going to need surgery and it seems like he will be out for the rest of the regular season. Even if he is able to return around Week 17 or 18, why would he? This is a 2-win team that needs an overhaul in the offseason.
But does this injury matter? Is the drop-off that significant between Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones? Maybe on paper, but Mac Jones has definitely shown some prowess in his young career. More in the early stage of his career compared to what’s happened more recently, but I’m not out on him and believe he’s one of the better options among the league’s second-string QBs.
The blitz-heavy approach may squander any optimism for Mac Jones, but Sam Darnold is starting to turn into a pumpkin many pundits have wondered previously. Eight turnovers in the last five weeks all while taking four sacks in four of the last six games.
Darnold is 3–4 against the spread as a favorite over more than 3 in his career. And watch this trend: Home underdogs of 6 or more are 6–2 against the spread this season.
Pick: Jacksonville +7, Win: Jacksonville
Tennessee Titans (+7) v. Los Angeles Chargers
This one is tough merely for the spread, but the Chargers have sneakily led multiple blowouts through the first half of this season. Among their five wins, only one has been a single-score difference (23–16 win over Denver). The four multi-score wins for LAC were a 12-point win over Las Vegas, a 23-point win over Carolina, an 18-point win over New Orleans and a 17-point win over Cleveland.
Those are bad teams, but so is Tennessee. And Will Levis is back! What a fun QB to gamble against. The Chargers are going to take full advantage of Will Levis’ frequent blunders.
Pick: LAC -7, Win: LAC
Dice Throws
New York Giants (-5.5) v. Carolina Panthers
No one wants to side with Daniel Jones at this point in the season (I suspect Drew Lock will get the start under center after the bye), and this line is making Carolina look very appetizing.
But, this is a nightmare matchup for Bryce Young. His offensive line is missing multiple starters, and has to face the league-leading squad in terms of sack percentage. Bryce Young was last in the league among QBs in EPA when under pressure last year. This year? Bottom 8.
It also doesn’t help that he doesn’t have any reliable weapons. Diontae Johnson and Adam Theilen are gone or injured, leaving Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker — two talented but young receivers.
In terms of figuring out how international games go, favorites are simply 32–16 against the spread. When the favorite is favored by more than 3 points, they cover 65% of the time.
Pick: NYG -5.5, Win: NYG
Toughies
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) v. Indianapolis Colts
Joe Flacco was thrusted into a tough position last week facing Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme under bright primetime lights, but I like a bounce-back performance against Buffalo’s soft defense.
According to the injury report, the Colts are getting one of their tackles back (Bernard Raihman) — another boost for Flacco. With that addition and a healthy Jonathan Taylor, I think the Colts have a real shot to keep up with the high-powered Bills.
Defensively, the Bills have quietly allowed the fourth-highest red zone rate in the NFL, according to some sharps of Twitter.
And it doesn’t seem like the Colts have an amazing home-field advantage, but Josh Allen is just 9–9 as a road favorite of more than a FG in his career.
In 11 straight games for Indianapolis, the games have finished with a one-score difference.
Pick: Indianapolis +4.5, Win: Buffalo
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) v. Washington Commanders
I think there’s an expectation that Washington is going to struggle against this defense and have a humbling performance. But why? Washington is the better team straight up and is playing at home.
Pittsburgh has the second-ranked defense, according to PFF, but they also haven’t really played too many competitive offenses in the last month. The Commander’s offense ranks №1 in the NFL by EPA, while Pittsburgh has defeated the woeful Jets, the Raiders and Daniel Jones.
Success off a bye is no longer a guarantee either. Teams off a bye against an opponent that didn’t have a short week are just 2–7 against the spread. This has been an ongoing trend for a minute (these situations have only covered 47% of the time in the last five years), but it’s really coming into play this year.
Pick: Washington -2.5, Win: Washington
New England Patriots (+6) v. Chicago Bears
Halfway through the season, it’s been tough to get the Bears right with all their inconsistencies. So far, it feels like Chicago and Caleb Williams have success against bad defenses, and struggle against good ones.
Does New England qualify as a good defense? No, they are not. The Pats rank 24th in overall defense, according to PFF, and are bottom-five in sacks per game.
Chicago Bears Head Coach Matt Eberflus is 5–2 against the spread (with two additional ties) as home favorites, including five straight covers.
Pick: Chicago -6, Win: Chicago
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) v. Dallas Cowboys
Similar to Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott is out and might be out for the rest of the year. Even if Dak is able to return, the team might be cooked by that point.
Cooper Rush is an impressive 5–1 in his six carer starts, but he was playing with much more talented squads than whatever Dallas is throwing out there these days. He amassed that record as the №2 QB option for a team that won 12 games three straight years, not this pathetic squad.
No team relies more on a quarterback’s passing yards than the Cowboys. Now they have to compete against a red-hot Eagles squad.
Pick: Philadelphia -7, Win: Philadelphia
New York Jets (-1.5) v. Arizona Cardinals
One win over a short-handed Houston Texans team and now the Jets are favored against a Cardinals team that has a better record, has had a tougher schedule and is playing at home?
Sounds bad, but I’m leaning toward the Jets because this is the time for them to make some noise — when it’s a little too late and everyone has moved on.
Offensive linemen Alijah Vera-Tucker and John Simpson are returning to the team. According to PFF, both of these guys are top-10 in pass block grades, making the Jets the only team to have two in the top 10.
Pair that with Arizona’s porous defense, which allows a rushing success rate of 46.1%, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the fourth-highest in the NFL. In the air, QBs have the sixth-highest completion percentage against Arizona. All this while Aaron Rodgers has thrown multiple TDs in four of his last five games while Wilson and Adams start to sizzle together.
Arizona is on a hot streak, but this is the perfect week to fade them.
Pick: NYJ -1.5, Win: NYJ
Detroit Lions (-3.5) v. Houston Texans
Detroit is 40–15 against the spread in its last 55 games, according to Cousin Sal on The Bill Simmons Podcast.
This is a truly amazing matchup, if only Houston was healthy. Nico Collins is a game-time decision after his IR stint. This is a big one because C.J. Stroud has a completion percentage of nearly 10 points lower when Collins is out.
Tank Dell is banged up, Will Anderson probably won’t play. Stefon Diggs is done for the year. I’ll start to believe in the Texans when I see it, but why fade the Lions right now on such a short spread?
Pick: Detroit -3.5, Win: Detroit
Miami Dolphins (+2) v. Los Angeles Rams
Want to know a crazy stat? Rams are 2–12 against the Dolphins in their last 14 games, with the last Rams win occurring in 2001.
Talk about an immovable object competing against an unstoppable force. The Los Angeles Rams are generating the highest pressure rate in football while the Dolphins are giving up the lowest rate.
But, at the time of this writing, Tyreek Hill may not even play. He’s missed the last two practices and is a game-time decision. With this info, I’m taking the red-hot Rams.
Pick: LAR +2, Win: LAR