2024 Week 11 NFL Picks

Thursday Night Football

Washington Commanders (+4) v. Philadelphia Eagles

We’ve been pretty good on TNF games (6–2 in last 8 matchups), and you know who else is good? The Eagles with A.J. Brown. The Eagles are 5–0 straight up and 4–1 against the spread when A.J. Brown is playing, averaging more than 30 points per game.

The point spread is scary here, as these teams feel really even on paper. But this game will be played in Philly in bad weather. The Eagles might have caught the Commanders on a great week.

Washington scored 20 points on Pittsburgh’s defense last week if you excuse the Steelers’ botched fake punt, giving the ball back to Washington in the red zone. When Washington played Chicago, another above-average defense, the Commanders only scored 18 points — albeit Jayden Daniels was a last-minute start.

The Eagles will be another elite defense for this team to face, as the Eagles rank third-best in the NFL defending throws 20+ in the air by EPA, according to Clev Analytics. Rookie CB Cooper DeJean is second in coverage grade in the league, according to PFF.

Washington’s offensive line is beat up. Marshon Lattimore is still not suiting up. I just feel like this is a bad spot for a Commanders team that might fall from 7–2 to 7–4 in half a week.

Pick: Philadelphia -4, Win: Philadelphia

Homer Pick

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) v. San Francisco 49ers

Geno Smith is 0–5 against the San Francisco 49ers as the Seahawks’ starting QB. But that doesn’t mean he can’t cover.

There’s some real turbulence within the Seahawks organization right now, as two starters have departed via release or retirement during the bye. That’s in addition to two mid-season trades this team made. The roster turnover is happening at a rapid pace as Mike Macdonald sorts through this roster.

But at least Seattle is healthier. Trent Williams is trending towards being out, while George Kittle will be limited if he plays. Seattle is receiving some MAJOR reinforcements — WR DK Metcalf and LT Abe Lucas. These guys could really make this team look new and improved if they get their way.

The Seahawks have the eighth-widest gap between actual points per drive versus expected, this number should bounce back and it could happen against this “softer” version of a San Francisco defense.

Pick: Seattle +6.5, Win: San Francisco

Locks

Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) v. Los Angeles Chargers

I’m all in on the Chargers. Hot take: They provide the best challenge to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC this year. That’s how much I’m into the Chargers.

This team runs the ball at an elite level (Gus Edwards is back and healthy). They play defense at an elite level (top-10 in both rush and pass defense). And now Justin Herbert has been unleashed. He’s reached 90+ PFF passing grades in three of his four games, playing the best football of his life since 2021.

On top of all that, Jim Harbaugh is picking up right where he left off and is proving to be one of the elite coaches in the league … again.

Joe Burrow is great, but this is a tough matchup for him. With the sixth-worst graded rushing attack and the 11th-worst defense, according to PFF, he will simply not have enough support to keep up.

Pick: LAC -1.5, Win: LAC

Cleveland Browns (+1.5) v, New Orleans Saints

I can’t believe the Browns are underdogs. The Saints won purely off the power of New Coach Theory, and still lack an incredible amount of talent. Meanwhile, Cleveland got some much-needed rest.

Coming off a bye isn’t nearly as successful in terms of covering the spreads, but this is good timing for Cleveland. Jameis Winston gets another week to prepare as a starter, and Nick Chubb could have a little spark in this game too.

The Browns have a top-10 pass rush as well, meaning Derek Carr will not have nearly as strong a game as he did against Atlanta. This team has four healthy receivers left, two tight ends, one Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara. That’s not enough.

Pick: Cleveland +1.5, Win: Cleveland

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) v. Tennessee Titans

Will Levis against Brian Flores? Is there anything more to say about this game?

According to Clev Analytics, when Flores faces against a QB of Levis’ caliber (Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Taylor Henicke, Aidan O’Connell, Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco and Mac Jones), the Minnesota Vikings are 5–2–1 against the spread and 7–1 straight up.

Levis ranks 34th out of 35 QBs in EPA and 38th out of 38 QBs in PFF grade vs the blitz. Flores blitzes at one of the highest rates in the league.

Pick: Minnesota -5.5, Win: Minnesota

Houston Texans (-7) v. Dallas Cowboys

Nico Collins is back. Last week, this blog mentioned that C.J. Stroud’s completion percentage is nearly 10 points worse when playing without Nico Collins compared to Collins being active.

Will Anderson Jr. is also playing at a DPOY level and gets to face this pathetic Cowboys squad. Cooper Rush has no chance. Trey Lance has no chance. Dak Prescott would not have a chance if healthy.

Houston hasn’t had too many dominant games this year. This could be one of the big ones for them.

Pick: Houston -7, Win: Houston

Dice Throws

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) v. Chicago Bears

Does an offensive coordinator change qualify as New Coach Theory? Maybe if it involves dumping Shane Waldron for … anybody else (sorry, salty Seahawks fan here).

Jordan Love is pretty inconsistent as a favorite, and this year only adds to that as he’s been riddled with injuries since the end of Game 1. But road favorites off the bye are 60–37 (62%) against the spread since 2000, according to Twitter sharps.

But I need to be honest about Caleb Williams. In terms of both passing accuracy and sack avoidance, he’s having the worst QB season in the last couple of years. His catchable throw rate and pressure-to-sack rate are both lower than Justin Fields in 2022 and 2023, Zach Wilson in 2021 and Bryce Young in 2023, according to Scott Barrett. That’s scary.

Pick: Green Bay -5.5, Win: Green Bay

Las Vegas Raiders (+7) v. Miami Dolphins

The Raiders are bad. The franchise is gunning for a top pick to try for another chance at a franchise quarterback in Sin City, and will probably be paired with a new head coach.

Can they cover against the Dolphins? I dunno, I’m buying the healthy Fins. The AFC is weak, the Dolphins defense is getting stronger and still has some premiere talent, and they can run the ball in addition to its patented high-octane passing offense.

Three of the Raiders’ last five losses (all in a row) have been by 15 or more points. Three quarterbacks have been rotated through this offense. Antonio Pierce is settling for short-yardage field goals. It’s just a mess.

With Gardner Minshew under center, what gets lost in his TD-to-INT ratio is his fumbles. Minshew fumbles the ball a lot, and the Raiders give up a lot of sacks — the fourth-most per game in the league this year.

Pick: Miami -7, Win: Miami

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) v. New England Patriots

I haven’t been able to nail the Patriots in against-the-spread picks this year. They snuck in a couple of early wins with Brissett, then sucked consecutively for a while. Now I’m too excited about Drake Maye and keep forgetting this team is still a mess everywhere else.

The Rams were dominated on Monday Night Football, and have a short week before facing New England. But the Rams have had the sixth-toughest schedule in the NFL as compared to the Patriots fourth-easiest (according to DVOA) and I feel like I’m getting a free point or two based on recency bias.

The Patriots are 23rd in success rate and 24th in EPA in Maye’s starts this year. The Rams should be able to handle this team.

Pick: LAR -4.5, Win: LAR

Indianapolis Colts (+4) v. New York Jets

These goddamn Jets. I hate that I’ve been fooled as much as I have been by this ridiculous circus of a team.

I don’t know what to expect from Anthony Richardson. Have his nerves settled? Has he refocused? No matter what, at least the Colts offense can use his multi-dimensional approach to football, as the Jets are atrocious against the run. Expect Jonathan Taylor to feast as well.

As for what the New York Jets can take advantage of, I guess Indy’s secondary is pretty weak. But its led by Gus Bradley, who uses a ton of cover 3 looks and, according to some sharps on Twitter, Rodgers struggles against these looks — ranking 27th in efficiency.

Pick: Indianapolis +4, Win: Indianapolis

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) v. Buffalo Bills

When Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog, which is just 14 times in his career, Kansas City is 12–1–1 against the spread and 11–3 straight up. Those three losses? 3, 3 and 4 point differences.

I can’t NOT take the (eventual) GOAT when he’s an underdog, even when Buffalo has proven to beat this team in the regular season. Buffalo has a couple of offensive injuries, and the Chiefs’ offense looks better than ever (this season) at this point in the year.

When it’s Mahomes and points, take the points.

Pick: Kansas City, Win: Kansas City

Toughies

Jacksonville Jaguars (+14) v. Detroit Lions

My God is this a large spread, and Detroit has proven they can cover it too. The Lions have nearly covered a hypothetical 14-point spread three times this year already, and only one of those games was against a backup QB.

On top of that, Mac Jones is 5–16 as an underdog against the spread.

But it’s too many points, and I still like the Jags’ weapons. Any given Sunday, a team can at least make it competitive.

Pick: Jacksonville +14, Win: Detroit

Baltimore Ravens (-3) v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Let’s run the numbers when it comes to this divisional showdown. In the last 12 games, the underdog in this matchup is 10–1–1 against the spread (9–3 straight up). Last five times Pittsburgh has been an underdog, they won outright. When the spread is 3 or more, the Steelers are 18–2–3 against the spread.

Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh have faced off 32 times. The underdog in these matchups? 23–6–3 against the spread.

The Ravens are one of the most elite offenses in the league, and can shut down part of an opposing team’s offense. They’re great against the run and terrible against the pass. But with all the aforementioned data, let’s take the underdog!

It’s not as if the Baltimore Ravens’ special teams has an advantage either. Justin Tucker is not who he used to be.

Pick: Pittsburgh +3, Win: Baltimore

Atlanta Falcons (+2) v. Denver Broncos

Denver has the second-highest graded pass-blocking unit, according to PFF, and gets to face one of the worst pass-rushing teams, not just this year, but in the last couple of years.

Atlanta also has some defensive injuries in its secondary to pair with the poor pass-rushing unit.

With Bo Nix playing better with each week, a nice coaching advantage between Sean Payton and Raheem Morris and the potential of a new rookie running back to create another dimension to this mediocre offense in Audric Estime, I like this spot for the Broncos, who are also at home!

Pick: Denver -2, Win: Denver